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Thread: Buy or Sell

  1. #1
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    Buy or Sell

    What prospects do you think the Red Sox should keep, and which ones should the Red Sox move?

    Boegarts - Keep
    Bradley - Sell (Keep Ellsbury)
    Barnes - Sell (I don't think he's the bonafide ace everyone makes him out to be. We could get a monster starting pitcher with Bradley and Barnes as bait. I don't think either of them are future stars)
    Webster - Keep (I like him more than Barnes. Better stuff, more advanced given ages)
    Brentz - Sell (4th OF type, who can't play CF)
    Cecchini - Sell (He's blocked, but a five tool player. If he hits for a little more power, he could be a huge trade chip)
    Owens - Sell (Fastball is just OK. I wonder if those K's are due to deception)
    Swihart - Keep

    The rest of our system isn't that great. Marrero has potential, but not enough info on him. I'm not too jazzed about the others.

  2. #2
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Keep them all. These things have a way of working themselves out, and being arrogant enough to think you can outguess random chance is how we wound up where we are right now not just with real holes on the team, but also with a lot of mediocre patch players like Aviles and Salty playing as well.

    To call a position secure for the future, you need three prospects potentially ready to play it in the next 36 months or less. Any time you move prospects to "clear the way" because one particular player is "your guy," especially before "your guy" has demonstrated over a full 162, you're inviting catastrophe. That "clear way" becomes a hole in a real hurry at that point.

    In other words, trying to chose, say, Ellsbury over Bradley, reveals your blindness to the fact that in the uncertainty-filled world of prospects and young ballplayers, we are very very likely to find a place for both over the course of 162+. Exactly the same way we could really have used Reddick this year, and DID make good use of him last year, despite him not being in the plans at the outset.
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  3. #3
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    Keep them all. These things have a way of working themselves out, and being arrogant enough to think you can outguess random chance is how we wound up where we are right now not just with real holes on the team, but also with a lot of mediocre patch players like Aviles and Salty playing as well.

    To call a position secure for the future, you need three prospects potentially ready to play it in the next 36 months or less. Any time you move prospects to "clear the way" because one particular player is "your guy," especially before "your guy" has demonstrated over a full 162, you're inviting catastrophe. That "clear way" becomes a hole in a real hurry at that point.

    In other words, trying to chose, say, Ellsbury over Bradley, reveals your blindness to the fact that in the uncertainty-filled world of prospects and young ballplayers, we are very very likely to find a place for both over the course of 162+. Exactly the same way we could really have used Reddick this year, and DID make good use of him last year, despite him not being in the plans at the outset.
    I was just putting out my thoughts on what prospects I liked and didn't, and which ones are better used as trade chips. I didn't know that made me arrogant and blind.

  4. #4
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    It demonstrates arrogance and blindness. If you want to own those attributes, that's your call, but I was kind of hoping you'd decide you didn't want to and would rather demonstrate wisdom and patience.
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  5. #5
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    It demonstrates arrogance and blindness. If you want to own those attributes, that's your call, but I was kind of hoping you'd decide you didn't want to and would rather demonstrate wisdom and patience.

    I'm just saying that having Ellsbury in CF maximizes his value, because he is an excellent defensive CF. We could move him to a corner, and play Bradley in CF. That's a possibility, and I'm not against it. Didn't mean to sound arrogant. I just think we have a lot of holes in our major league roster, and we can use our financial advantage to move some of our lesser prospects to upgrade the roster. I'm not saying we should trade them for a rental, but maybe we could move a few of them for another cost controlled player.

  6. #6

    Re: Buy or Sell

    There is no guarentee that the Sox will be able to keep Ellsbury. If he ask for more then the Sox think he is worth then Bradley becomes an option in CF. Unless a King Felix or another top of the line pitcher is the target I believe the youth has to stay here. How many times have we traded away youth for the quick fix and have been disappointed.

  7. #7
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Behindenemylines View Post
    There is no guarentee that the Sox will be able to keep Ellsbury. If he ask for more then the Sox think he is worth then Bradley becomes an option in CF. Unless a King Felix or another top of the line pitcher is the target I believe the youth has to stay here. How many times have we traded away youth for the quick fix and have been disappointed.
    Not that often. Our big mistakes have for the most part been via free agency. We haven't had a lot of our prospects go elsewhere and tear up things.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

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    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  8. #8

    Re: Buy or Sell

    You have to see where Ellsbury is, and with his agent, he wont allow the kid to sign prior to FA anyway. It benefits both parties. Ellsbury has shown an alarming loss of power. Couple that with a shoulder injury that was rehabbed and you have to think that there is something structurally wrong in the shoulder. I wonder if the sox are going to see something on his post-season MRI/physical. But, if the physical goes well, the kid strengthens the shoulder in the offseason and comes back hitting 20+ bombs and running around the bases like a madman again, then you gotta try to keep him.

    Also, a huge problem the sox seem to have is letting their guys go and overvaluing their prospects/undervaluing the wrong prospects. With the sox sunk in almost all areas of the team, they might be better served to see what they have next yr, and build for another run. They won in 2004 with veterans, but their 2007 team was grown either via trade of prospects or the ascension of prospects. Right now, their best prospects are in AA and will likely require another half season to be ready. The sox should, IMO, not do anything drastic (ie long term contracts) this offseason (maybe re-sign Ross and coax Papi into a 1 yr deal). They can try to find scrap heap signings for the rotation and hold spots for guys like Barnes, Webster and De la Rosa. Once those kids show they have mastery over AAA, they ascend, take the spots and show if they can handle it. If they show what Doubront has shown (great stuff, inconsistent command, big time promise) then you gotta ride with them. If they come up and look like Craig Hansen, you demote them and deal them before their stock is ruined.
    Hal sucks

  9. #9

    Re: Buy or Sell

    I think many wouldn't mind having Kelly, Rizzo and Reddick back in the mix of youth for 2013. That is three just from last year, and I know it was along time ago (1990) but Jeff Bagwell is probably the prospect dealt that had the greatest career.

  10. #10
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Behindenemylines View Post
    I think many wouldn't mind having Kelly, Rizzo and Reddick back in the mix of youth for 2013. That is three just from last year, and I know it was along time ago (1990) but Jeff Bagwell is probably the prospect dealt that had the greatest career.
    Reddick had a nice year and Rizzo seems to have good potential, but neither are in Bagwell's category, and going back to 1990 is long way to go to find a prospect that burned us big time.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  11. #11

    Re: Buy or Sell

    Dojji, I honestly think you'd be a perfect fit for the Rays.

    Point being, I think Dojji and RJ represent both sides of the extremes. If you have a chance to go out and get a proven starter who you think can perform at a high level in the AL East, you make the trade. You don't empty the farm, but you make some player expendable.

    You also have to look at it from a perspective of which positions you can sign solid, cheap talent (i.e. Cody Ross), and which positions are extremely expensive (i.e. SP), and assess trades based on your depth at these positions.

    So, there are no true "untouchables" for me, but the closest are Bradley, De La Rosa, Bogaerts, Owens, and Barnes. Everyone else basically is fair game for the right deal.
    Quote Originally Posted by seabeachfred View Post
    Also we have to trade Bogaerts and Bradley while they still have some interest from other teams. They are lemons. Are you aware that X is hitting less than 130 with RISP. As I said in April we could have a choker on our hands. I will say this August....WE DO HAVE A CHOKER ON OUR HANDS.

  12. #12

    Re: Buy or Sell

    It is a bit frustrating that our farm system just doeesn't push guys....Something like what Detroit does...They find out right quick if a pitcher or player is just going to be a "would da could da just wait" kind of guy or not....It would be nice to have more developed trade pieces ya know.....As for Ellsbury, it does kind of work with the Mariners in all....Maybe Brandon Maurer & Anthony Fernandez can come back this way...A Winter trade makes sense though....

  13. #13

    Re: Buy or Sell

    Pushing guys allows you to see the really good ones sooner, but the guys who will fill out your lineup, you bullpen and your pen dont have to be really good players. And pushing some guys too fast will ruin them. I wouldnt look at Detroit as a bastion of minor league success. Verlander turned out great, but they ruined Porcello's development and saw two humongous talents turn into shit in their hands (Miller and Oliver). They are the definition of a system that is a buzzsaw.
    Hal sucks

  14. #14
    Fight the Hate Dojji's Avatar
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Not that often.
    By "not that often" he means 5 times in the last 10 years.

    Crisp trade (Shoppach)
    Gagne trade (Murphy)
    VMart trade (Masterson)
    Melancon trade (Lowrie)
    Bailey trade. (Reddick)

    If we hadn't made those 5 trades, we'd have additional options at catcher, corner OF, shortstop and starting pitcher. Sounds like a laundry list of our biggest issues right now.

    (I could see an argument for not counting the crisp trade, since CoCo played a role in winning us a World Series, even if it wasn't the role we were hoping he'd play, but Shoppach still looms large on the list of the "players we maybe should have kept in the first place.")
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  15. #15
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Re: Buy or Sell

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    By "not that often" he means 5 times in the last 10 years.

    Crisp trade (Shoppach)
    Gagne trade (Murphy)
    VMart trade (Masterson)
    Melancon trade (Lowrie)
    Bailey trade. (Reddick)

    If we hadn't made those 5 trades, we'd have additional options at catcher, corner OF, shortstop and starting pitcher. Sounds like a laundry list of our biggest issues right now.

    (I could see an argument for not counting the crisp trade, since CoCo played a role in winning us a World Series, even if it wasn't the role we were hoping he'd play, but Shoppach still looms large on the list of the "players we maybe should have kept in the first place.")
    Shoppach sucks. Murphy has made a nice career for himself in Texas. The Gagne trade is a universally acknowleged bust. VMart did a really nice job for the Sox while he was here. Masterson is still looking to find himself. Melancon blows chunks, but Lowrie was never going to be more than a good utility guy because he can't stay on the field. The Bailey trade is looking like it could be just as bad as the Gagne trade. Two trades were really bad. If we reversed all 5, we'd still stink, plus we would have stunk in 2008 and 2009 without VMart. We'd have had 5 lousy years instead of 3.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

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