Treading Water in August?

[Orange Juiced]

Here are the records of the various AL contenders in August:

 

TB: 8-8

Bos: 9-10

Bal: 8-9

NY: 10-8

Det: 12-7

Cle: 9-10

KC: 11-9

Oak: 8-9

Tex: 14-4

 

So really only two team have made a lot of headway this month: Texas and Detroit. The Rays, Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Guardians, and A's really have just been treading water...maybe picking up or losing a game or two, but not much movement.

 

In other words, the Red Sox aren't the only team just kind of muddling their way through the dog days of August.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here are the records of the various AL contenders in August:

 

TB: 8-8

Bos: 9-10

Bal: 8-9

NY: 10-8

Det: 12-7

Cle: 9-10

KC: 11-9

Oak: 8-9

Tex: 14-4

 

So really only two team have made a lot of headway this month: Texas and Detroit. The Rays, Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Guardians, and A's really have just been treading water...maybe picking up or losing a game or two, but not much movement.

 

In other words, the Red Sox aren't the only team just kind of muddling their way through the dog days of August.

 

Excellent post. Thumbs up.

 

We're so close to the Sox that watching them struggle night in and night out gets insanely frustrating when we know they are better than this. This is about as fortunate as we can get, though, only losing 1 game to the Rays and 1.5 games to the Yankees this month while playing sub-.500 baseball.

 

Like I said in the GT. Turn the month around today, and get back on track. Win today, worry about tomorrow when it gets here. Hellickson vs Chen tonight in Baltimore, I like the Orioles chances there, so win today and maybe pick up a game on the Rays.

[Behindenemylines]

If the Sox can get through the rest of August and be in the same position that they are in now that would be great. I'm concerned that the Rays and $panks are ending the month on hot streaks and the Sox continue to play .500 baseball. Losing series to last place Jays and potentially to the last place Giants has to concern you. If we can get to September in the position we are in the schedule favors them a little bit. Because the Sox have played more games they have more off days which will allow them to line up their pitching better. Hopefully, September also means the return of a healthy Buchholtz.

[Thunder]

Why does it seems like the Rays are a lot better than they really are?

[jad]

Why does it seems like the Rays are a lot better than they really are?

 

Because they are?

[sk7326]

Why does it seems like the Rays are a lot better than they really are?

 

It's the starting pitching ... makes them more dangerous in October in theory. But they have to get there, like we do. But all of the teams are muddling along right now. Every day that passes with the teams all sort of equal, the better it is for Boston.

[SoxSport]

The Rays lost about 6 in a row recently after a winning streak. That covers up the run they made. Trouble is, the Sox haven't been able to take advantage of that losing streak. They are now the team without momentum, as the Yankees are also surging--thanks to Soriano. You can't underestimate the effect of adding a hot player or two in August to revive a team.

 

The two road trips out west have made August a challenging month. Peavy has helped, but Farrell is showing some cracks in his BP decisions. Lost the game last night. They will have to turn things around quickly out west, or they will fall behind.

[Behindenemylines]

Does it bother anyone that the $panks are only 6 and a half games out? They play the Sox 7 more times, Rays 6 and the O's the 7. Mix in 7 more games with the Jays, 3 with the wrong colored Sox, 3 with the Giants, and finish the year with 3 with the Astros. If they win every series with the teams ahead of them (which they can), and destroy the bottom feeders left on their schedule they can still win the East. If they do win every series with the teams above them, and the rest of their schedule they will pound they could still win around 92-94 games which could be enough to win the east. I'm concerned.

[SoxSport]

Here are the records of the various AL contenders in August:

 

TB: 8-8

Bos: 9-10

Bal: 8-9

NY: 10-8

Det: 12-7

Cle: 9-10

KC: 11-9

Oak: 8-9

Tex: 14-4

 

So really only two team have made a lot of headway this month: Texas and Detroit. The Rays, Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Guardians, and A's really have just been treading water...maybe picking up or losing a game or two, but not much movement.

 

In other words, the Red Sox aren't the only team just kind of muddling their way through the dog days of August.

 

Check out the records since the all-star break--not just August. That would include the TB winning streak.

 

TB: 17-11

Red Sox: 16-15

Balt: 14-14

NYY: 15-15

 

TB has picked up 4 games in the lost column vs Red Sox. 10 of their 17 wins have been by one run.

Edited August 21, 2013 by SoxSport

[SoxFanForsyth]

Because they are?

 

err....not really. they had an outrageous stretch. they'll lose today. they're not really very good.

 

plus they haven't made their west coast trip either. and even outside of that, the Rays have a crazy schedule.

 

3 v NYY this weekend, travel to KC on Monday to play 1, back Tampa for 3 v LAA, then a 10 game west coast trip

[Orange Juiced]

Among the four top AL East teams:

 

Boston

1 at SF (56-69)

3 at LAD (73-52)

3 vs Bal (67-58)

3 vs ChW (50-74)

3 vs Det (73-52)

4 at NYY (66-59)

3 at TB (72-52)

3 vs NYY (66-59)

3 vs Bal (67-58)

3 vs Tor (57-69)

2 at Col (59-68)

3 at Bal (67-58)

 

Home: 18 (Sox are 40-23 (.635) at home)

Away: 16 (Sox are 34-31 (.523) on the road)

Total combined opponents winning %: .515

*Note: The Sox play 19 games against the other top 3 ALEast teams. That trip to Colorado might be a colossal pain as well.

 

 

Tampa Bay

1 at Bal (67-58)

3 vs NYY (66-59)

1 at KC (64-60)

3 vs LAA (55-70)

3 at Oak (71-54)

4 at LAA (55-70)

3 at Sea (58-67)

3 vs Bos (74-54)

3 at Min (55-69)

4 vs Tex (73-53)

4 vs Bal (67-58)

3 at NYY (66-59)

3 at Tor (57-69)

 

Home: 17 (Rays are 41-23 (.641) at home)

Away: 21 (Rays are 31-29 (.517) on the road)

Total combined opponents winning %: .509

*Note: Tampa has 14 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. Tampa has but two scheduled days off the rest of the season, and they have that big west coast trip still to go.

 

 

New York

2 vs Tor (57-69)

3 at TB (72-52)

3 at Tor (57-69)

3 vs Bal (67-58)

3 vs ChW (50-74)

3 vs Bos (74-54)

4 at Bal (67-58)

3 at Bos (74-54)

3 at Tor (57-69)

3 vs SF (56-69)

3 vs TB (72-52)

3 at Hou (41-84)

 

Home: 17 (Yanks are 36-27 (.571) at home)

Away: 19 (Yanks are 30-32 (.484) on the road)

Total combined opponents winning %: .494

*Note: New York has 21 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. That last series should be an automatic sweep for NY, which may come in very handy for them.

 

 

Baltimore

1 vs TB (72-52)

3 vs Oak (71-54)

3 at Bos (74-54)

3 at NYY (66-59)

3 at Cle (68-58)

4 vs ChW (50-74)

4 vs NYY (66-59)

3 at Tor (57-69)

3 at Bos (74-54)

4 at TB (72-52)

3 vs Tor (57-69)

3 vs Bos (74-54)

 

Home: 18 (Orioles are 35-28 (.556) at home)

Away: 19 (Orioles are 32-30 (.516) on the road)

Total combined opponents winning %: .531

*Note: Baltimore has 17 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. They finish with 20 straight games against ALEast opponents (including Toronto).

 

 

Now, not counting difficulty of opponent, if we just go with each team's home and road winning percentages, and project those out over the rest of the season, here's what we end up with:

 

Boston

- Current record: 74-54

- Home games: 18 x .635 = 11.4 wins

- Road games: 16 x .523 = 8.4 wins

- Projected record: 93.8 wins

 

Tampa Bay

- Current record: 72-52

- Home games: 17 x .641 = 10.9 wins

- Road games: 21 x .517 = 10.9 wins

- Projected record: 93.8 wins

 

New York

- Current record: 66-59

- Home games: 17 x .571 = 9.7 wins

- Road games: 19 x .484 = 9.2 wins

- Projected record: 84.9 wins

 

Baltimore

- Current record: 67-58

- Home games: 18 x .556 = 10.0 wins

- Road games: 19 x .516 = 9.8 wins

- Projected record: 86.8 wins

 

 

Based on this, I give Tampa the edge, because the projections put them even with Boston (exactly), but their strength of schedule is a little easier (.509 vs. .515 opponents' winning percentage). That may be worth one game, and one game is all you need.

 

The Yankees are also a very different team at the moment than they were most of the year, so using this method to project is unfair to them. So here's my final projected standings:

 

Tampa Bay: 94-68

Boston: 93-69

New York: 90-72

Baltimore: 85-77

 

And I think, unfortunately, that Boston ends up playing New York in that stupid playoff game, and we will have Lester or Peavy vs. Kuroda. I'd say Buchholz, but I think the Sox will use him that last weekend trying to edge out Tampa, but the Yanks, given their last 3 games against Houston, can probably set up for Kuroda.

[marklmw]

Does it bother anyone that the $panks are only 6 and a half games out? They play the Sox 7 more times, Rays 6 and the O's the 7. Mix in 7 more games with the Jays, 3 with the wrong colored Sox, 3 with the Giants, and finish the year with 3 with the Astros. If they win every series with the teams ahead of them (which they can), and destroy the bottom feeders left on their schedule they can still win the East. If they do win every series with the teams above them, and the rest of their schedule they will pound they could still win around 92-94 games which could be enough to win the east. I'm concerned.

 

As a Sox fan you have to be concerned. The Sox are finding ways to loose games now ... last night was a perfect example.

[Orange Juiced]

Let's face it - the Sox are going to be in a crazy pennant race this year. Which makes for a very exciting September, and, given what we experienced in September of 2011 and all of 2012, is something we should all be grateful for.

[Thunder]

There's already a thread for this.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox are winning the AL East. The Rays play horribly out west. Look at their last trip - 0-6 against ARI and LAD.

 

Not to mention the Sox have more home games than away games and the Rays have 21 away games, where they are a .500 team.

 

Red Sox 93-69

Rays 91-71

Yankees 88-74

[SoxFanForsyth]

Does it bother anyone that the $panks are only 6 and a half games out? They play the Sox 7 more times, Rays 6 and the O's the 7. Mix in 7 more games with the Jays, 3 with the wrong colored Sox, 3 with the Giants, and finish the year with 3 with the Astros. If they win every series with the teams ahead of them (which they can), and destroy the bottom feeders left on their schedule they can still win the East. If they do win every series with the teams above them, and the rest of their schedule they will pound they could still win around 92-94 games which could be enough to win the east. I'm concerned.

 

Not really. They're on a good run.

 

But they still have to run out Pettitte, Hughes, and CC in 60% of their games. Not old CC. The CC who could barely beat Dempster, who is the Sox 7th best starter.

 

Sorry, not gonna happen.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

So we close at Baltimore.

 

Over/under on the number of 2011 flashbacks TV networks will play if we haven't clinched (or been eliminated) by then?

[SoxFanForsyth]

So we close at Baltimore.

 

Over/under on the number of 2011 flashbacks TV networks will play if we haven't clinched (or been eliminated) by then?

 

Oh geez. Turns my stomach. Too many.

[Thunder]

So we close at Baltimore.

 

Over/under on the number of 2011 flashbacks TV networks will play if we haven't clinched (or been eliminated) by then?

 

I might not watch that whole series.

[a700hitter]

Not really. They're on a good run.

 

But they still have to run out Pettitte, Hughes, and CC in 60% of their games. Not old CC. The CC who could barely beat Dempster, who is the Sox 7th best starter.

 

Sorry, not gonna happen.

8-2 is a good run in their last 10. They picked up 4 games very fast. You fail to mention that Kuroda gets run out there every 5 days too. He has had very very few bad games this season. We have no one like that unless Buch comes back and returns to pre- injury form.

[SoxFanForsyth]

8-2 is a good run in their last 10. They picked up 4 games very fast. You fail to mention that Kuroda gets run out there every 5 days too. He has had very very few bad games this season. We have no one like that unless Buch comes back and returns to pre- injury form.

 

I didn't mention Kuroda because I was mentioning how often they have to run out bad pitchers.

 

Great. They run out Kuroda every 5 games. That's 20% of their games. With 37 games left, he'll start 7-8 more games. That leaves 30 starts left to Pettite, CC, Hughes, and Nova. You could argue that Nova has been good too, which is why I left him off, but still that leaves 22-24 starts between that gruesome trio of starters.

 

Not exactly inspiring.

[Bellhorn04]

There are some very bad signs developing. I hate giving games away and I can't help feeling we did it two out of the last 3 games. Still pissed at Dempster.

[SoxFanForsyth]

8-2 is a good run in their last 10. They picked up 4 games very fast. You fail to mention that Kuroda gets run out there every 5 days too. He has had very very few bad games this season. We have no one like that unless Buch comes back and returns to pre- injury form.

 

And besides, you invest entirely too much stock in a 10-12 game span.

 

Remember when you were saying "Don't count the Jays out" because they won like 12 in a row? Same exact situation.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Yankees do make the playoffs, Girardi will have to be credited with one of the best managing jobs in history.

[jung]

Well it is a little different SFF. This yankee squad now has a white hot Soriano and a revitalized Aroid to go with Karoda pitching like an ace. The Toronto squad was the same bunch of losers only on a hot streak.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There are some very bad signs developing. I hate giving games away and I can't help feeling we did it two out of the last 3 games. Still pissed at Dempster.

 

Everyone (including myself) is overreacting to a tough stretch. That's all this is, a tough stretch. The Sox have gone on a few of these this year. May was bad (.500) too.

 

The good thing is that this team is able to turn the page quickly and rebound. They'll come out tonight, pound the baseball, Doubront will throw a good game, and they'll take this series and go to LA on a good note. They'll have Lackey Lester Peavy throwing in LA against Nolasco Ryu Capuano, so I like the matchups there too.

 

Then we have 18 of the following 30 games at home, where the Sox play .635 baseball.

 

Buchholz will probably get back around 9/5, but I think the Sox will push off his 1st start back to 9/7 so that he can face NYY - TB - NYY in those back to back to back series.

[Bellhorn04]

I just realized something very troubling about the decision not to use Workman last night.

 

Farrell said he didn't want to use him 3 games in a row.

 

But he used him to close out Monday's game with a 7-run lead.

 

Ugh.

[jung]

May is not August. You have to expect many more tight tense games in crunch time. Don't trust the way Farrell uses the pen especially confronted by what will be and already is many tight tense games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well it is a little different SFF. This yankee squad now has a white hot Soriano and a revitalized Aroid to go with Karoda pitching like an ace. The Toronto squad was the same bunch of losers only on a hot streak.

 

Soriano isn't white hot anymore. He's 2 for his last 18 and 0 for his last 14. He's cooled of completely.

 

Kuroda is pitching like an ace and that's fine. But they have no #3-5 starters. Their SP is awful.

 

CC: 4.83 ERA, 7.86 ERA in his last 6 starts.

Pettitte: 4.39 ERA, 5.27 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Hughes: 4.88 ERA, 7.43 ERA in his last 5 starts.

 

So these pitchers have been awful all year, and even more so in their past few starts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just realized something very troubling about the decision not to use Workman last night.

 

Farrell said he didn't want to use him 3 games in a row.

 

But he used him to close out Monday's game with a 7-run lead.

 

Ugh.

 

Yeah that was a Villareal situation (Monday night) if I've ever seen one.