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Thread: Sports betting

  1. #16
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    I got my first Pro-Line win in a while yesterday. It paid $32 on a $4 bet. (I told you, it's strictly for entertainment.)

    But what's interesting is that it's the first time I tried to pick only against the spread, instead of picking home, visitor or tie.

    With the spread bets there are only 2 outcomes so the multiplier is only about 1.7 per game. But if you pick 4 like I did and get them all right, it's an 8 to 1 payoff.

  2. #17
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    1) BET ID=429580793
    Straight Wager 12/16/13 22:36 ET
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    bet 102.45 to win 143.43 (paid 245.88) Result: Wager Won
    Spurs(SanAntonio) 92
    Clippers(LA) 115 12/16/13(22:40 ET)
    Clippers(LA) +140

    2) BET ID=429574520
    Straight Wager 12/16/13 20:51 ET
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    bet 50.00 to win 52.50 (paid 102.50) Result: Wager Won
    NBA 2nd Half Lines (OT included)
    Minnesota Timberwolves 47
    Boston Celtics 50 12/16/13(21:35 ET)
    Boston Celtics +105

    3) BET ID=429556527
    Parlay (2 Teams) 12/16/13 19:11 ET
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    bet 75.00 to win 225.68 (paid 300.68) Result: Wager Won
    Wizards(Washington) 102
    Knicks(NewYork) 101 12/16/13(19:40 ET)
    Wizards(Washington) +110
    Ravens(Baltimore) 18
    Lions(Detroit) 16 12/16/13(20:45 ET)
    Ravens(Baltimore) +5.5 (-110)

    4) BET ID=429555586
    Parlay (4 Teams) 12/16/13 19:05 ET
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    bet 25.45 to win 539.80 (paid 565.25) Result: Wager Won
    Jazz(Utah) 94
    Heat(Miami) 117 12/16/13(19:40 ET)
    Heat(Miami) -12.5 (-110)
    Timberwolves(Minnesota) 97
    Celtics(Boston) 101 12/16/13(19:40 ET)
    Celtics(Boston) even
    Wizards(Washington) 102
    Knicks(NewYork) 101 12/16/13(19:40 ET)
    Wizards(Washington) +110
    Ravens(Baltimore) 18
    Lions(Detroit) 16 12/16/13(20:45 ET)
    Ravens(Baltimore) +177

    5) BET ID=429555296
    Parlay (2 Teams) 12/16/13 19:04 ET
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    bet 50.00 to win 150.45 (paid 200.45) Result: Wager Won
    Wizards(Washington) 102
    Knicks(NewYork) 101 12/16/13(19:40 ET)
    Wizards(Washington) +110
    Ravens(Baltimore) 18
    Lions(Detroit) 16 12/16/13(20:45 ET)
    Ravens(Baltimore) +5.5 (-110)
    Haha

  3. #18
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Well, I've been working on this baseball model in order to predict "objectively" W/L in baseball games. I started this project a year ago and I started it with basic stats. Today it is based on mostly sabermetrics (26). It considers 8 stats in order to rank the teams (wRC, UZR, SRS, etc.) and 18 pitching stats (FIP, xFIP, SIERA, GmSc, peripherals, etc.) to rank pitchers.

    This model has been correlating each stat with the result of each game (W/L) and it gives to each stat a 1 when true and 0 when false. Thus far, It has evaluated around 400 games and each day it recalculates the hit rate of each stat in each game in order to calculate their linear weights. These days it has a 70% of effectiveness. Last year it was in "beta" mode, and even with the adjusting periods I made around 7 KUSD. I think that it is ready to go and bet serious money, mostly since I just incorporated the IBM SPSS software in order to adjust the stats into a better math-method model and recalculate better their weights and behaviours. I like to bet in "round-robin" sets since even when you lose a line, you do not lose the whole bet ticket since it generates all the posible combinations and tickets depending on the number of bet lines. These are my last two bets; the first one is a parlay bet of 8 lines and the second one is multiple bet (round-robin) of 26 tickets (2.5 bucks each) of 5 lines called super yanki. I made $1,213 in two days LOL!

    I do not expect to be this accurate everyday, but if the 70%+ of effectiveness continuous (I expect that the hit rate of the model increase since I just incorporated the SPSS though), in the long term I think that I will make some extra money, I'll see.

    I just wanted to share it with you guys since it is officially ready after a year of hard work haha. I'll keep you informed how it goes.



    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by iortiz; 04-10-2014 at 02:11 PM.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by iortiz View Post
    Well, I've been working on this baseball model in order to predict "objectively" W/L in baseball games. I started this project a year ago and I started it with basic stats. Today it is based on mostly sabermetrics (26). It considers 8 stats in order to rank the teams (wRC, UZR, SRS, etc.) and 18 pitching stats (FIP, xFIP, SIERA, GmSc, peripherals, etc.) to rank pitchers.

    This model has been correlating each stat with the result of each game (W/L) and it gives to each stat a 1 when true and 0 when false. Thus far, It has evaluated around 400 games and each day it recalculates the hit rate of each stat in each game in order to calculate their linear weights. These days it has a 70% of effectiveness. Last year it was in "beta" mode, and even with the adjusting periods I made around 7 KUSD. I think that it is ready to go and bet serious money, mostly since I just incorporated the IBM SPSS software in order to adjust the stats into a better math-method model and recalculate better their weights and behaviours. I like to bet in "round-robin" sets since even when you lose a line, you do not lose the whole bet ticket since it generates all the posible combinations and tickets depending on the number of bet lines. These are my last two bets; the first one is a parlay bet of 8 lines and the second one is multiple bet (round-robin) of 26 tickets (2.5 bucks each) of 5 lines called super yanki. I made $1,213 in two days LOL!

    I do not expect to be this accurate everyday, but if the 70%+ of effectiveness continuous (I expect that the hit rate of the model increase since I just incorporated the SPSS though), in the long term I think that I will make some extra money, I'll see.

    I just wanted to share it with you guys since it is officially ready after a year of hard work haha. I'll keep you informed how it goes.



    Are you laying the chalk every bet?

  5. #20
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rjortiz View Post
    Are you laying the chalk every bet?
    mmm nope... actually I like to bet underdogs but I try to keep discipline and follow what the model suggests. Here my last bets in the last week. I have made around 3,000 bucks. The model has improved to 75%. Can't say this is going to last but thus far it is doing pretty well.




    Last edited by iortiz; 04-24-2014 at 08:50 AM.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  6. #21
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  7. #22
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Iortiz, you are going to have to teach me about your system for handicapping baseball. I have always found baseball very difficult to wager on and win any consistency-- maybe the most dificult of sports for me.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  8. #23
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Iortiz, you are going to have to teach me about your system for handicapping baseball. I have always found baseball very difficult to wager on and win any consistency-- maybe the most dificult of sports for me.
    Well, The model I've been talking about has been working pretty well when you bet on 4 1/2 IP handicap bets, mostly since it gives an edge to the away team -- an extra inning to hit. In other words, the away team has the opportunity to hit 5 innings while the home team only 4. The thing is that these type of handicaps most of the times give you favourite lines (no attractive lines) but if you bet on multiple lines (like the above) you can set a pretty decent "overall" line. If you want underdog lines (attractive lines) it works pretty well when you bet on underdog away teams say like Houston vs very favourite home teams like Detroit, and the pitching is Oberholtzer vs Porcello for example.

    I only have found this type of bet on bet365.com where I bet. Not sure if other sites manage these kind of bets.
    Last edited by iortiz; 04-24-2014 at 11:27 AM.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  9. #24
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Last week Bet365 gave me a loyalty bonus of 100 bucks. I booked a 8-line parlay bet so I booked 7 lines of the Mexican soccer league and the last one for the super bowl. Thus far, I have won the 7 lines of the Mexican soccer games (ganadas), and just waiting for the SB game. The potential win is 5,800 bucks. I need that the NE Patriots win today. I'm a Redskins fan but today I root Patriots all the way haha.image.jpg
    Last edited by iortiz; 02-01-2015 at 10:31 AM.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  10. #25
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iortiz View Post
    Last week Bet365 gave me a loyalty bonus of 100 bucks. I booked a 8-line parlay bet so I booked 7 lines of the Mexican soccer league and the last one of the super bowl. Thus far, I have won the 7 lines of the Mexican soccer games (ganadas), and just waiting for the SB game. The potential win is 5,800 bucks. I need that the NE Patriots win today. I'm a Redskins fan but today I root Patriots all the way haha.image.jpg
    Good luck iortiz. I hope the Pats get it done for you.

  11. #26
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Good luck iortiz. I hope the Pats get it done for you.
    Thank u Bell.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  12. #27
    Talksox hall of famer RedSoxfanforlife305's Avatar
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    No wonder why iortiz living the fancy life. About to break the bank coming up on nearly 6 g's. I want the Seahawks to win, but it'd be cool if NE won so you can get your money. Good luck!
    Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'

    PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT : Mind your own fucking business if a conversation doesn't concern you and maybe we can start acting like adults.

  13. #28
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxfanforlife305 View Post
    No wonder why iortiz living the fancy life. About to break the bank coming up on nearly 6 g's. I want the Seahawks to win, but it'd be cool if NE won so you can get your money. Good luck!
    Thank you Mike. I can even close the bet right now but it only would pay me around 2700.image.jpg
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

  14. #29
    Talksox hall of famer RedSoxfanforlife305's Avatar
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    You should definitely cash out at 2700.
    Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'

    PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT : Mind your own fucking business if a conversation doesn't concern you and maybe we can start acting like adults.

  15. #30
    El mar no cesa iortiz's Avatar
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    I already won 7 out 8 Mike. I could also close the ticket during the game. As I said I'm a greedy man haha.
    Tiburones Rojos de Veracruz & Boston Red Sox

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    In the words of Don Corleone when he slaps a crying Johnny Fontaine: "Act like a man!" No, offense ladies.

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