Originally Posted by
jacksonianmarch
Now that we have re-inked Kuroda and signed Tanaka, I think our rotation may be complete. Barring Cashman getting another $20 mil a year or so in FA money out of ownership, that is. But as it stands, I think this is a pretty formidable rotation with some depth options that make this team intriguing. That being said, I keep hearing people, on this site especially, saying the Yankee rotation is "garbage". Where have we heard that before? Oh yes, after the sox won 69 games and were last in the AL in 2012. How did that turn out? Right, guys with talent who were coming off career worst seasons suddenly rebounded to their career norms and all of a sudden, everyone was on their nuts again? Surprising, maybe, shocking, not in the least. Let's start on top.
1. CC Sabathia- he had a fucking horrendous second half last yr. And why might that be? Well, CC started 2013 off with elbow surgery. Coming back from it, he had no velocity. For a good chunk of 2013, his average fastball velocity was in the 80s. As the season wore on, he gained velocity back, enough to push his fastball average velocity up to 91.3mph. What came with that, though, was lack of command. CC walked 5 more batters in 63 less innings after the ASB. He also had a 35 point higher BAA after the ASB. This shows he couldn't command his fastball at the upper register, mostly because it came back as the year went on. Fast forward to 2014. He comes into the yr healthy, will get a full off season in and at 33, should be able to return to the guy who gives 200IP and rarely walks batters. I expect a rebound yr. Maybe not a 240+IP yr, but a 200+IP season with an ERA in the mid 3's and nearly a K per inning. He's too good not to, and if his velo is back to a reasonable speed (91-92 is reasonable for him), he should be able to reach that. It might not be Verlander or Scherzer-esque, but it is still ace level production in the AL East. Mark it down, CC will be back in 2014.
2. Hiroki Kuroda- Kuroda finished the year poorly in 2013, but it pretty much evened out his unsustainable beginning to the yr. Hiroki's K and BB rates were practically identical pre and post ASB, but the BAA rose 52 points and hence his ERA rose from 2.65 to where he finished at 3.31. The interesting thing about Kuroda is how remarkably consistent his stuff has been since he entered the league. His average velocity in his career is 92 and last yr, he was 91.5, just 0.3 off from the yr before. My concern with Kuroda is that he is turning 39 yrs old in February and late 30s pitchers can lose it immediately. That being said, he's on a 1 yr deal and if he produces great. I don't know what to expect from him. He's been a solid #2 for both seasons in the Bronx. If he can continue that, then we'll be happy.
3. Ivan Nova- not sure if anyone has flown under the radar as much as this guy. In 139IP last yr, he managed to put up a 3.5 WAR. The reason? Because he has dominant stuff and he has finally figured out that you cannot just lay pitches down the middle (problem from the minors) or try to K everyone (problems in 2012). He's learning how to actually pitch. If he keeps learning and doesn't get K happy, he could be a dominant pitcher in the bigs. Most people don't know he threw to a 3.10ERA last yr. I think Nova ends up as our #2 come 2015.
4. Masahiro Tanaka- I am going to trust the scouts and the fact that multiple teams were willing to throw $20+ mil per yr out there for this guy. He's dominated the Japanese league and now he comes to the states at the young age of 25. I don't think anyone should expect ace level production in 2014. It will take time for him to adjust, but if he can give 180-200IP of 4ERA production, then he'll be worth his contract and be intriguing entering 2015.
5. This is the mish mosh part of the rotation, but one with candidates to be great.
I start with Michael Pineda. He started the ASG a couple years back. We traded for him, he blew out his shoulder and missed all of 2012. He returned to the minors in 2013 and was handled with kid gloves. That being said, the reports are that he got his velo back and he entered the offseason healthy. My guess is he'll be groomed to start in AAA, but should be ready at some point in 2014. I am unsure how much run he will get, but he will likely be the most dynamic part of the #5 competition just due to his lights out stuff and mix of good command.
Adam Warren is next on the list. He was a bulldog in the minors and pitched in the swing role in 2013. He was effective in that role, registering a 3.39ERA over 70+IP. He has a good 4 pitch repertoire, nothing overly special, but good velo and good stuff. He is likely the lead dog coming out of ST in 2014 to take that #5 role.
David Phelps is next on the list. He came out of ST in 2013 as the starter, but was injured and rendered ineffective after that. He's an interesting pitcher, one not blessed with tremendous velo (he'll top out at 92), but he has a lot of movement. The problem is, he can nibble and when he does, he gets into a lot of trouble. He was good out of the pen in 2012, and I have a feeling he may return to that role should he lose the competition out of ST
Vidal Nuno is an unlikely dark horse candidate. The guy was a MiLB FA and moved through the ranks in NY's system until he ended up starting a handful of games and dominating last yr. He's a lefty with a big curve and good command who can be sneaky with his fastball, but I doubt he wins the competition. He's likely in the pen come 2014.
And the final guy, IMO, is Manny Banuelos. He was one of our top prospects in 2012, before being injured and eventually needing TJS. When on, he is a buzzsaw lefty with a FB capable of reaching 96 and a dynamite curve-change combo. He's young, and thus, he has issues with his command here and there. He had his TJS in November 2012, so he should be fully ready to go come ST. My bet is he starts as the ace in Scranton and finds his way to the Bronx in some capacity.
For now, I think Warren and Phelps battle it out in ST, with the winner taking the reigns out of the block. Pineda and Banuelos will push the #5 spot and also be used as contingency when a pitcher gets hurt. Regardless, aside from Nuno, the guys above are all touted prospects with starter level stuff who should get enough chances to show their worth. On top of that, the top 4 should give us a good rotation. For as "shitty" as our rotation was per a lot of uninformed people on this site, the Yankee rotation was only 0.24 behind the sox in ERA and only threw 15 more innings. I think a bounceback from CC and the acquisition of Tanaka might help that along a little.