the question then being, does Jon Lester at age 36 have a fighting chance to be a productive upper middle of the rotation starter.Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch
IMHO yes, I'd say that's a decent bet.
the question then being, does Jon Lester at age 36 have a fighting chance to be a productive upper middle of the rotation starter.
IMHO yes, I'd say that's a decent bet.
If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
If he's taking a home town discount, it won't cost that much to keep him.
The poison of FA is teams will usually take a hit at the end of those deals. Lester is a work horse and a 5 year deal isn't that awful. He's still a #2 that gives them 200+ and doesn't have an injury history. Sign him to a 5 year if that what it takes to retain him.
It won't cost much less than that either.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
If he's truly taking a home town discount like Pedey, 15-17 MIL a year will get it done.
If not, he's not true to his words
Isn't that the point of a message board?
Disagree. Pedey's discount was unusual, and Lester shouldn't be expected to follow suit or risk being called a greedy putz.
If Lester has a big year and goes to free agency he should be able to command at least $150 million. So $100 or $110 million guaranteed is still a considerable discount, IMO anyway.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Lester will look at Greinke as a comp, and I would too. I suspect the Red Sox do as well. $20-25M a year is not at all unreasonable for a guaranteed innings horse. I think the haggling is more about team options vs guaranteed years. If Boston could get Lester for 4/90 with 2 option years, that'd be about as team friendly as you're going to get. I can't imagine there is much disagreement on his dollar value so much as how much he will be guaranteed.
$22M is a discount for what he'd be valued at.
I'm fine going into the 5/100 or 6/120 range for Lester. For a lot of reasons.
1. He's pretty much a lock to give you 30+ starts and 200+ innings every year.
2. In line with #1, he has no history of serious injury and he has very good mechanics so there isn't much to suggest that he's a major health risk going forward
3. Since he became a full time big leaguer in 2008, he's had one year where he failed to post an ERA in the 3's. And even in that off season (2012) his peripherals suggested he was the victim of some poor luck.
4. He's a lefty with a history of success at a park that isn't too friendly to lefties.
5. He's been nothing short of exceptional in postseason play.
6. 100/120 million might not seem like a discount but consider this:
Ricky Nolasco, the very definition of right handed mediocrity, just got close to 50 million dollars. How much would a guy with Lester's pedigree fetch on the open market?
Furthermore, with the way salaries are exploding in baseball, that 20 million AAV could very well look like a bargain in a few years.
Give Jonny his extension and move on with no regrets. This is a no-brainer to me.
Justin Verlander and King Felix don't even make that.
And don't bring up Greinke, that was clear stupidity by the Dodgers.
I'll be shocked if it takes 20 MIL a year to keep him.
Then you'll be shocked. Prices have gone up since Verlander and King Felix both gave their hometown teams significant discounts.
If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
Exactly, discount. The way that Lester has been saying this for the past YEAR and has mentioned it numerous times I'm pretty sure he's willing to take a big cut. Maybe not as big as Pedey but less than 20
Felix's extension was 7 years, $175 million = $25 million AAV
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Oh it was not stupid for Greinke (he's a really good pitcher). It was just the market he entered into. Lots of money chasing relatively few players. The draft picks are a far bigger deterrent than the salary.
Here is the thing - Lester might want to trade some salary because he is in a place where his family is happy. He owes the Red Sox nothing - it's business. But that has to come with some additional security - it's the tradeoff people make, perfect sense. Now Lester is a $25 million a year pitcher in the open market - quality #2, fringy #1, no injury history and a sure bet to spin 200 innings at a pretty good to really good level, and most of the teams are swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck. He may not get it from all 30 teams, but he will fit many teams' budgets at that price.
He can offer a discount - but it has to be a discount from a fair open market price for him, not some sort of number dropped from the sky which seems emotionally satisfying but will not result in anything but some extra money to spend on Liverpool FC. $20M is a completely worthy number. Could he be had for less? If he feels good enough about his life, sure. But he certainly does not owe the Red Sox that, and asking for $20M is a considerable discount already.
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