JBJ is more of a buffalo chip than a trade chip at this point. I don't think anyone is losing sight of XB's age, but I think the expectations for him to be the next Sox superstar are a thing of the past.Originally Posted by Behindenemylines
JBJ is more of a buffalo chip than a trade chip at this point. I don't think anyone is losing sight of XB's age, but I think the expectations for him to be the next Sox superstar are a thing of the past.
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How many teams would take JBJ if he could hit .240 to .250? There is going to be some team that thinks they can get him to hit that and give them gold glove D!
he'd be at most a throw in. By himself, he nets us nothing. He is a busted prospect that has now become a project. The market for projects with no power potential is close to zero.
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Spitball, Mondesi hit only when the team was way ahead or way behind. He never got the big hit in close games and when with the Yankees it was almost a joke as he was referred to as the out man when things were on the line. The guy was a classic in hitting into double plays with men on base and then singling with no one on base to start an inning. I saw him plenty out here in LA and he was a real choker-----something that Bogaerts may be even worse at.
I will be 74 on October 27 and have been a rabid fan since I was about seven, wearing my little Dodger uniform while playing with my friends in the Queens of the late 40's and early 50's. The best player I ever saw was Willie Mays, the best managing job I ever watch was Leo Durocher's with the Giants in 1954, and my greatest thrill as a kid was the July 4th Doubleheader win by the Dodgers over the Giants at Ebbets Field. The worse experience was when Bobby Thomson hit that three run homer to win the pennant for the Giants that same year. Now you're up to date.
Bellhorn, I know you want to believe and probably do that Bogaerts is the next great Red Sox player, but take this one to the bank. He will never be the player you expect him to be. His lack of clutch hitting and piss poor performance with RISP and with men on base generally is the sign of a choker who cannot handle pressure. Coupled with his penchant for losing his concentration, rushing throws, being in the wrong place at the wrong time and poor bat control all combine for a player who is of two possibilities----one, still young enough to learn how to play the game better, or a stark warning that this is not the guy you want to depend on down the road. Right now he is a total choker who cannot play well under pressure, and while he held his own last year in the post-season it is starting to look more like a mirage. This season has shown him to be less than what the Red Sox believed him to be and I would not expect to ever see him rise into the star status---AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE RED SOX WERE HOPING FOR. I would gladly include him in any trade for a top flight pitcher or a standout hitter.
Fred, his career line in late and close games is .270/.328/.462. That is not terrible. That is OPSing nearly .800.
In 733 late and close games and 1019 plate appearances, he grounded into a mere 12 double plays. That does not sound "classic" to most unbiased baseball people.
Fred, I consider you a friend and an entertaining poster, but you get carried away at times. Statistics are far more reliable than our memories.
"As long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome." - Noam Chomsky
That's 25 points off his career OPS and his career OPS with RISP with 2 outs is 69 below his career numbers.
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That does not prove a thing. Mondesi was still decent in the clutch. He was not a "real choker". His career OPS with 2 outs and RISP is 36 higher than Dustin Pedroia's. Is Pedroia a "real choker"?
Last edited by Spitball; 09-13-2014 at 10:03 PM.
"As long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome." - Noam Chomsky
He was more than marginally worse over his career with RISP and 2 out. The stats bear that out. If you want to make your case with stats, make it. You didn't. I didn't call Mondesi a choker. I didn't see him play enough to come to that conclusion. I just looked up the stats like you did.
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Well, then why did you stick your nose into the conversation? You jumped into the discussion I was having with Fred who said Mondesi was a choker. I enjoy discussing baseball with Fred and don't really need childish intervention.
"As long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome." - Noam Chomsky
Who the hell cares about the guy?
I will say this. While I will gladly concede that XB was over hyped and may not ever become the "player I expect him to be", it is still too early to tell what his ceiling is. He is 21 and obviously a talented athlete. He also appears to have a brain and drive. I don't believe that he is a "choker". He just needs to learn how to hit better ALL OF THE TIME.
12 months from now if the kid has not much better than he is now then I say he is closer to being a bust and go in another direction. We don't need another Middlebrooks.
Oh. Spitball I did not intend to interrupt your conversation with Fred. I just wanted to help get the conversation back to XB and avoid acrimony.
Whether XB is a choker or not misses the point. Right now he is. Both offensively and defensively he tends to freeze in pressure situations. We see that with his low average with RISP or when he makes stupid base running decisions. We see that defensively when he makes poor throws to first because he rushed. The question is: will he outgrow these mistakes made because of his youth. The answer is we don't know. One can hope he does, but one really doesn't know with certainty. There have been cases where some guys never mature and live up to their promise because they can't adjust to the pressure of the game. Others have. Only time will tell in Bogaerts case. However, a prudent GM and FO would be well advised to have a Plan B in case he doesn't. Is Cherrington a prudent GM?
In any case Bogaerts certainly isn't going to be another Nomar, not by a long shot. Right now he projects to be a serviceable ML shortstop whether a choker or not.
you can always give Fred a call if you want to have a private discussion. Fred is always eager for baseball conversation.
As for your use of stats, you often misuse them and erroneously use them as conclusory proof which they rarely are. A lot of people think the same way. I ascribe to Vin Scully's philosophy on statistics--they should be used in the same way that a drunk uses a lamppost -- for support not illumination. In this case, the stats didn't really support your opinion (which was really based on nothing because you didn't claim to see the guy play very much). In fact, the stats showed that he was worse in almost every pressure category and significantly worse with RISP with 2 outs. I was just pointing out that which you failed to point out when you posted the slash lines. I realize that irks you because it is very important for you to be right.
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I think this is the key. For better or worse, the Red Sox are committed to XB. They will have to ride it out to see what he becomes -- in large part because his trade value has been very devalued. However, they cannot count on him as a major offensive contributor in 2015. That would not be prudent, especially when we will be carrying sub par offense at catcher and an unknown quantity in Castillo in CF. IMO, they need to get a stick to play third base. Maybe that stick is Betts. I would be playing him at third for the remainder of the season to see if he can handle the hot corner. He is not going to play second next season, so why bother. He could get squeezed out of the OF with Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino and Craig. I think Betts is a Victorino type spark plug with the bat and would like to see him get a shot on 2015. They need to find him a position. Third base is wide open for the taking.
Last edited by a700hitter; 09-14-2014 at 10:04 AM.
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