It looks like the Marlins are pretty serious about keeping him around, for a while at least.Originally Posted by a700hitter
It looks like the Marlins are pretty serious about keeping him around, for a while at least.
lol
I'm not buying the idea of Stanton staying in Miami until he is signed to that mega-deal. I'll believe it when it happens. Supposedly the two side have discussed 10/300. I wonder if this is factual? If so, did the Marlins make that offer? And if so, why has Stanton not jumped to sign there?
For the record. I also don't buy the idea that Stanton necessarily wants to be on a contending team every year. He'd be stupid to turn that kind of money down.
If he does sign with them I hope that he has the forethought to build a home on stilts because a lot of Miami will be under water in another 15 or so years.
Make that a 13 year $325 mil contract. Holy shit. If he pens this deal, he never gets traded. This is absolute max value for a player of his ilk
Hal sucks
This does pretty much kill his trade value. No ones sending top prospects and taking that deal on. I gotta think if he signs this deal there is an opt out clause somewhere around year 5 or 6. If the Marlins suck and winning becomes important enough he will still be able to land a big deal from a contending team and the Marlins will be off the hook for half the money. So in that scenario it would be more like 5/150M or 6/180 which seems much more reasonable.
From Fangraphs:
Marlins Discussing Record Deal With Giancarlo Stanton
by Dave Cameron - November 14, 2014
Back in September, I ruminated on when an extension for Giancarlo Stanton might look like, and a run through the numbers gave me an estimate of $300 million over 12 years. The Marlins, reportedly, are negotiating a deal with Stanton that could be worth as much as $325 million over that same time period, so it seems like the estimates in that post weren’t too far off.
Except they kind of were, because I just eyeballed the projections and decided to be a little conservative, so the calculations were based on Stanton starting out from a +5 WAR level. Stanton’s actual Steamer projection is for 2015 is up on the site now, and it has him as a +6 WAR player for 2015, suggesting I maybe underestimated his expected value by a full win each year. Here’s the same table from that post, just starting from a +6 WAR base instead of a +5 WAR platform.
Year Age WAR $/WAR Value 10% Discount
2017 27 6.0 $7.00 $42.00 $37.80
2018 28 6.0 $7.40 $44.40 $39.96
2019 29 6.0 $7.70 $46.20 $41.58
2020 30 5.5 $8.10 $44.55 $40.10
2021 31 5.0 $8.50 $42.50 $38.25
2022 32 4.5 $8.90 $40.05 $36.05
2023 33 4.0 $9.40 $37.60 $33.84
2024 34 3.5 $9.80 $34.30 $30.87
2025 35 3.0 $10.30 $30.90 $27.81
2026 36 2.5 $10.90 $27.25 $24.53
That projection values his 10 free agent years at a total of $390 million, and doesn’t include the payments he’s basically already guaranteed through arbitration. Toss in another $35 million for the two seasons before the 10 year extension kicks in, and this would suggest a value of $425 million, $100 million more than the Marlins are reportedly offering.
Yeah, I know, it sounds insane. I don’t think Stanton’s worth $425 million either. For one, the aging curve is probably not aggressive enough, especially for a guy his size with a history of knee problems. If we start his decline phase a couple of years earlier, having him drop from +6 WAR to +5.5 WAR at age-28, then the trickle-down has him end up at $313 million for the 10 free agent years, which would put him around $350 million over the life of the deal. Still a bit more than the rumored price, but definitely closer, and probably a bit more reasonable.
The other key we haven’t talked about is a potential opt-out, and how that might affect the valuation. Opt-outs are a way of giving the player non-monetary value in exchange for a lower AAV, and if the Marlins include one in an extension for Stanton, it could help them drive salaries down. Given the Marlins history of selling off players not too long after signing them, I’m guessing Stanton will demand either (or both) a no-trade and an opt-out, giving him the leverage to decide where he goes if he wants to get out of the deal.
If the opt-out is early enough in the deal, making Stanton’s commitment to the Marlins far shorter, then it could give him enough additional value to take less than the $30 million AAV he’s pretty clearly worth. We’ll do a full rundown on the deal when it’s done and the details are known, but it sounds like Stanton’s going to get a monster contract, and he deserves it.
The funny thing is, he might still score a nice contract after this one ends. That, and if he has a 5 yr opt out, he could get another 10 yr contract if he dominates. Regardless, a $325 mil contract probably means he wont be hurting for cash when that contract ends
Hal sucks
Hellickson dealt to the DBacks for a 19 yr old OFer with lots of promise but a LONG way to go
Hal sucks
I think TB may be going into rebuild mode. You'd think if they were trying to compete they would have tried for a ML ready piece.
Contract reportedly contains opt-out and no-trade. Monster money and control over his future. Couldn't be better for him.
We miss you Mike.
I knew there would be an opt out. It's being reported it's after the 5th season. This whole deal makes a lot more sense. I bet Miami is betting on him being a good player and using that opt out(it seems like most of them do) and letting him walk a being able to say they gave him 300M and it wasn't enough and not be burned at the stake by the fan base.
It's an absolute ideal contract for Stanton.
This is the best thing that ever happened to Stanton.
Hal sucks
It also seems like it's what the Marlins had to do.
Stanton gets the length never given to any player in baseball history. He gets a no trade, pretty much guaranteeing he won't ever go to a situation he isn't comfortable with. He gets an opt out should the market rise tremendously in 5 yrs. and he gets $25 mil per. Barring injury or inconsistency, he's opting out after 5 yrs and getting a bigger 8 yr deal
And the Marlins would have him for 5 years for 125 million (depending on the structure) so it makes sense for them too. Of course they're carrying a ton of risk those 5 years (which could be mitigated by insurance?)
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