A Realistic View at 2016

[oldtimer]

Show me a closer with a weak ego, and I'll show you a lousy closer.

You need to have an enormous ego to be a great closer. You don't have to be cocky or a braggart, but you have to have a complete confidence and belief in yourself to be a top closer.

Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it. All pitchers have rough patches, and he did have an injury and recovery period during the year.

I'm not expert on psychology or what is going on in Kimbrel's mind, but I'm pretty certain he believes he should be the closer on opening day next year. His overall career could overshadow his weak stretch this year. Whether it should is up for debate.

I have no evidence to support my view here, except for maybe past histories of closers losing their roles, but I happen to think Kimbrel would not go quietly to a set-up role. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before.

I'd hope that if we pick up a great closer, he'd be okay with the set-up role and excel at it. His brief history as a set-up man has not been pretty. It worrisome to me.

BTW, I'm with S5 on the idea that Uehara should be our closer right now.

I don't remember for sure when the role of closer was fully established. Starting pitchers used to try to go 9 innings. Now we have a model where starters may throw 100 pitchers of maybe a few more before being replaced or if they get into any trouble, they are yanked early and we seem to have 7th and 8th inning setup men and a closer. A point here is the approach to handling the pitching staff is continually evolving and probably will continue to change as the years go by. Perhaps the idea of a shared closer role is not that far fetched. Sometimes the guys could fulfill the role of the setup man or the closer, whichever seemed to be needed the most at the time. Creative handling of the staff, if an innovation seemed to work, would soon be copied and pitchers would learn to adapt to the new reality. Look at the Yankees this year with 3 guys who could all have been closers.

[oldtimer]

Regardless of how the playoffs end, the Sox did very well over the regular season. Many thought we had very little chance of winning the division. Many had given up on JBJ and were shocked to hear so many GMs were asking for him in trade. There's other examples of players beating expectations as is usually the case in a winning year.

Here's a look at some numbers that are quite impressive:

Out of 330 MLB players with over 220 PAs (about 11 per team), here's how our players placed in OPS:

2) Ortiz 1.021
21) Betts .897
38) Ramirez .866
47) Young .850
52) Leon .845
57) Bradley .835
69) Pedroia .825
93) Bogaerts .802

That's 8 guys in the top 93. Figuring 30 teams, the norm should be about 3. Losing Papi is going to hurt, but we'll still have 7 top 30% batters.

(120 pitchers with 50+ IP- about 4 per team)
2nd Half Starter ERA- Rankings:
6) Porcello 59
25) Buchholz 73
27) Rodrigues 73
41) Price 81
85) Pomeranz 106

First Half ERA- Rankings:
6) Wright 61
8) Pomeranz 62 (w/SD)
41) Porcello 83
67) Price 98
133) Buchholz 143

I know this might be cherry-picking and wishful thinking, but if we could see more of the first half Wright and Pomernaz and the second half Porcello, Price, ERod and Buch, our rotation would be about as solid as can be. I'm not projecting that will be, but certainly there is more promise than we had before the season started.

The reality is the end of season performances by many of our hitters slipped off dramatically so we haven't been as good recently as the ratings for players that you cite. I sincerely hope that JBJ, Bogaerts and Leon can regain at least some of the performance that they demonstrated during a significant portion of the season. Perhaps today some lightning bolt will hit and at least one of them will find themselves and help the cause.

[S5Dewey]

I don't remember for sure when the role of closer was fully established. Starting pitchers used to try to go 9 innings. Now we have a model where starters may throw 100 pitchers of maybe a few more before being replaced or if they get into any trouble, they are yanked early and we seem to have 7th and 8th inning setup men and a closer. A point here is the approach to handling the pitching staff is continually evolving and probably will continue to change as the years go by. Perhaps the idea of a shared closer role is not that far fetched. Sometimes the guys could fulfill the role of the setup man or the closer, whichever seemed to be needed the most at the time. Creative handling of the staff, if an innovation seemed to work, would soon be copied and pitchers would learn to adapt to the new reality. Look at the Yankees this year with 3 guys who could all have been closers.

I'm going to go back to Tito here for a couple of points:
Tito understands the psychology of pitchers. First, Tito usually would pull a pitcher before REAL trouble gets rolling. He'll pull a guy who's struggling regardless of the number of pitches thrown. During his tenure in Boston it was obvious to me that his goal was to protect his starters, to make them feel they'd been successful when they come off the mound because Tito knows that if you feel like you're successful you'll have a better chance of actually being successful in your next outing.

Tito also learned at the Bill James school of Relievers. James has always said that the time to use your best pitcher may not be in the 9th inning. It's when you can bring him in to avoid a big inning. That's what Tito's been doing with Miller. Use your best pitcher to keep you from getting behind. Pretty simple stuff.

And in a related thought.....I've often wondered about the wisdom of saving your best reliever for the 9th inning. Doesn't that imply that the batters coming up in the 9th 'turn it up a notch', and that they'll hit better in the 9th than any other time in the game? If you've got a shut-down guy don't save him for the 9th, use him to shut down regardless of the inning. As Ralph Houk said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow." Don't save a pitcher for the 9th. You may not need him for the 9th, especially if you've let your team get behind earlier in the game.

[moonslav59]

The reality is the end of season performances by many of our hitters slipped off dramatically so we haven't been as good recently as the ratings for players that you cite. I sincerely hope that JBJ, Bogaerts and Leon can regain at least some of the performance that they demonstrated during a significant portion of the season. Perhaps today some lightning bolt will hit and at least one of them will find themselves and help the cause.

I was hoping the 3 days rest would be all they needed, but that hasn't seemed to help.

[Dojji]

And in a related thought.....I've often wondered about the wisdom of saving your best reliever for the 9th inning. Doesn't that imply that the batters coming up in the 9th 'turn it up a notch', and that they'll hit better in the 9th than any other time in the game? If you've got a shut-down guy don't save him for the 9th, use him to shut down regardless of the inning. As Ralph Houk said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow." Don't save a pitcher for the 9th. You may not need him for the 9th, especially if you've let your team get behind earlier in the game.

I've often felt this whole argument was a result of sloppy thinking. THe fact of the matter is that the bullpen is a team. If you can only count on one member of that team to get the job done it doesn't matter a bit where you use him, because you'll get burnt by the other, bad, relievers at about an equal level.

Unless you have 2-3 really top flight relievers, it doesn't matter which role you use your good relievers because your lack of bullpen depth is going to burn you just about exactly as hard no matter how you stack it.

[Kimmi]

I'm not in favor of giving up on Kimbrel - for next season - but we're now in a 'one and done' situation. I believe that a player's most recent performances is an indication of what his next performance will be and this is no time to find out if Kimbrel's wildness problems have been solved. Koji, OTOH, has been relatively solid in his recent outings so he'd be my closer.

I've been saying that I'm not sure Kimbrel has any idea where the ball is going when he lets go of it. In thinking about it I now believe I've been too generous. I'm confident that he doesn't know where it's going. If he did the ball wouldn't be going where it is. (Is that too logical for some people?) And we're not talking about missing his spots by inches here, it's sometimes feet! It's time to make a change.

Koji4Kloser

I don't disagree with what you're saying. One of the things that is so great about Koji is that he rarely walks anyone.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree with what you're saying. One of the things that is so great about Koji is that he rarely walks anyone.

And, he's got nerves of steel.

[Kimmi]

And, he's got nerves of steel.

He does. But I'll never forget his post game interview after the 2013 World Series when he said he thought he was going to puke on the mound. LOL

[S5Dewey]

And, he's got nerves of steel.

That's called "clutch".

[oldtimer]

I'm going to go back to Tito here for a couple of points:
Tito understands the psychology of pitchers. First, Tito usually would pull a pitcher before REAL trouble gets rolling. He'll pull a guy who's struggling regardless of the number of pitches thrown. During his tenure in Boston it was obvious to me that his goal was to protect his starters, to make them feel they'd been successful when they come off the mound because Tito knows that if you feel like you're successful you'll have a better chance of actually being successful in your next outing.

Tito also learned at the Bill James school of Relievers. James has always said that the time to use your best pitcher may not be in the 9th inning. It's when you can bring him in to avoid a big inning. That's what Tito's been doing with Miller. Use your best pitcher to keep you from getting behind. Pretty simple stuff.

And in a related thought.....I've often wondered about the wisdom of saving your best reliever for the 9th inning. Doesn't that imply that the batters coming up in the 9th 'turn it up a notch', and that they'll hit better in the 9th than any other time in the game? If you've got a shut-down guy don't save him for the 9th, use him to shut down regardless of the inning. As Ralph Houk said, "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It may rain tomorrow." Don't save a pitcher for the 9th. You may not need him for the 9th, especially if you've let your team get behind earlier in the game.

One other thought is that some relievers don't do well if they come in with men on base. Kimbrel may be one of those, for instance. You need to slot the guys where they can feel comfortable and do well.