What about a game like basketball where a shooter can hit a bunch of 3-pointers in a row and then miss a bunch. I'm not talking about shots with a defender's hand in their face, I'm talking about uncontested open shots. It's a man (or woman), a ball and a hoop. Why does the performance vary?Originally Posted by Hugh2
No one has ever said otherwise.
Randomness.
Absolutely. If the stats tell me something different than what I have believed from the eye test, I'm going with the stats. The eye test involves all human element, which we know is subject to things like bias.That's an interesting perspective. Given that you and I are on opposite sides in this discussion - not that there's anything wrong with that! - I have exactly the opposite thought. I find that nearly everyone here who likes the stats says essentially the same thing at one time or another. "I like and believe in the eye test...... as long as the eye test doesn't conflict with the statistics".
I used to think that Pedroia was a great base runner. That's what I saw when I watched the games. The announcers used to confirm what I believed. Or maybe the announcers saying that Pedroia was a great base runner influenced my opinion into 'seeing' that?
Either way, when the stats told me that Pedroia was not a great base runner, I had to rethink my opinion on that and admit that I was wrong.
That's a description of the results, but it's not an explanation.
And having your muscle memory functioning in a way to perfect your mechanics for a period of time.
Edit: Just paraphrasing the end of your post.
Last edited by a700hitter; 12-31-2016 at 12:21 PM.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Because the game is really difficult to play at any level and exponentially more difficult at the MLB level. The slightest changes make the difference between success and failure.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
This reminds me of something a friend of mine told me about how he and his wife settle disputes. "Anything we agree on we do my way and anything we disagree on we do her way."
IOW in spite of any lip service, the outcome is always predetermined.
It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
-Vin Scully
I understand the value of sabremetrics in evaluating performances and in predicting trends. I understand much more of it than you would think. It really is not rocket science. But when the Sabre-fanatics go off the rails, they enter the realm of nonsense. Saying that there is no such thing as a hot hand or cold hand and that it is just a function of randomness is nonsense. It reminds me of the physicists that argued that the curve ball is an optical illusion. And I have much more respect for the laws of physics than for the study of statisitics.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Excellent point. Anything that cannot be explained seems random. Few things are completely random.
The King of TalkSox has Spoken.
Randomness is the result of chance
Yes, and it applies perfectly to flipping coins and games of chance where odds can be computed mathematically. But it's not entirely satisfactory for explaining human performance variances.
https://priceonomics.com/can-an-athlete-be-streaky/
Maybe you don't have the same time I do to read. I'm in a house where no one speaks English right now so perhaps your New Years Eve is more involved but it's a great read when you get the chance.
I feel some (in sports and life) are threatened by accepting they are largely victims of chance, but I find it empowering.
I know I may come off as a dick sometimes but I mean well....sometimes. I hope everyone has a safe and happy new year!
If you are directing that comment at me, you're missing the boat.
I had an opinion based on what I thought I saw. The stats didn't agree with me. I was wrong and I changed my opinion.
You have an opinion based on what you think you see. The stats don't agree with you so therefore the stats must be wrong.
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