Here are Pedey's total stats from his first full season, 2007 to the present. If he plays another 5 years and maintains this level of play, is he a legitimate HOF candidate?
BA .301, OBP .366, OPS .811 with an average 16 homers per season and 77 RBI per season.
Doesn't even have to - he is clearly the best HoF candidate on the team presently ... his career bWAR is 49.4 ... and the hall of fame tier is in the 60 ballpark there. You add the intangibles (one team his whole career, many all star games, a deserved AL MVP, two rings), I'd be surprised if he did not make it with two more solid seasons
He needs to play a few more years at a high level before he's a good candidate according to JAWS.
2500 hits? Nah...
Originally Posted by moonslav59
As points of reference, I offer the career bWAR of secondbasemen Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler:
32-year-old Dustin Pedroia, 49.4 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, two World Series titles, one AL RoY, one AL MVP
37-year-old Chase Utley, 63.4 bWAR in 14 seasons, two World Series, one World Series title
33-year-old Robinson Cano, 60.3 bWAR in 12 seasons, one World Series, one World Series title
34-year-old Ian Kinsler, 51.5 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, no World Series titles
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If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
he will get in. not a first ballot but when all is said and done (barring a career ending injury in the next 3 years) he will be in.....IMO
other names i have posted under: none
Another WS win before it's all over would put him over the top. Aging well and being productive into his late 30's will also help a ton, but I'm not sure I see it with his body type.
If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.
I always forget about him - 54.1 WAR over 20 seasons vs 49.4 WAR over 10. Ortiz will get in - when is an interesting question, based on the Hall reforming its attitude about the DH position (clearly they should be held to a higher offensive standard, but blackballing them makes little sense) - he probably gets in over Edgar Martinez if they break the seal on the position.
With Pedroia the question is whether it falls off a cliff over glides down gently. Essentially when his hands have been healthy, he has been about 90% of his 25 year old self ... if he keeps that up for a couple more seasons there will be the bulk accumulation.
What hurts Pedroia is the sudden growth of quality at that position. He is probably more like a Top 6 second baseman now, but still a legit top 20-30 position player generally. He and Cano do not have a monopoly on the position anymore - even if their actual production has not slumped that much.
Is Ian Kinsler HOF worthy? If not, neither is Pedroia.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml
Chase Utley? Idk. He's probably the borderline for me. If Pedroia can get his career numbers above Utley's, I think he has a good chance of getting in.
the RoY and MVP are the difference makers. if/when another second baseman wins MVP it will be the first one since he did it...
the last AL 2nd baseman to win it prior to Pedroia was Nellie Fox in 1959..
the last 3 NL 2nd baseman to win: Kent, Sandberg, Morgan.....
other names i have posted under: none
Kinsler and Pedroia are fairly close - I think Pedroia's actual peakiness puts him a shade above. Finished Top 10 MVP 3 times to Kinsler's zero (and obviously won it) and same number of All-Star appearances - and the two rings.
Utley is a case where he just hasn't been very good the last 3 years or so. He was once arguably the best position player in the league - for me he is very tough. The edge Pedroia has is that he is still quite good, and a better Age 32 player than Utley was.
Hall of Fame is a lot about longevity. I'd say he needs 5 more years that are better than his last 5. Look at Craig Biggio. It took him 3 years to get in and Pedroia has a long ways to go to reach his numbers.
Any mention of Edgar Martinez should note that the career Seattle Martinez posted 68.3 bWAR in 18 seasons to the 54.1 bWAR posted in 20 seasons by David Ortiz.
Just one factor to consider.
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