A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Not in favor of a Knuckler coming out of BP in tight situations, or close games. 1 walk, stolen base, pass ball, you can score a deciding run without the benefit of a hit.
Long relief, if a game is out of hand, to save innings more like it for me. Otherwise I rather Start him, to get his feel for the Pitch, you can almost tell if a Knuckler has it or not, to see if he should continue.

That's why I have Wright as the 5th starter and Pom in the pen, but we could use Wright mostly to start innings in relief.

As for the fear of Wright walking too many guys, ERod walked more last year per inning and Pom was pretty close.

Pom 3.1
Wright 3.3
ERod 3.4
Buch 3.6

While I agree a WP, PB or SB might be more common with Wright, opponents getting a hit is less common (H/9):

7.8 Porcello
7.9 Wright
8.3 ERod
8.4 Buch
8.9 Price
9.2 Pom w BOS (7.2 overall)

BTW, on SBs:

vs Wright 8 (4 CS) in 656 PAs by opponents.
vs ERod 2 (2 CS) in 458 PAs
vs POM 3 (3 CS) in 292 PAs

Wright's 67% SB rate is not much higher than the team's 64%.

Porcello was worse with 7 SB and 3 CS (70%)

[moonslav59]

Yes. This is exactly why I believe we traded Buch too soon.

It does raise a question with me. When to player's contracts start and end? Are they structured to begin on January 1 of the year? Do they begin at the start of ST? Or some other date certain with each player's contract date being different?

It matters (a little) because as in the case of Buch, if his contract starts on Jan. 1 and we traded him on June 30 we'd owe him ~$6.7M which would count toward our LT, but if his contract starts on.... say.... April 1, we'd only owe him ~$3.4M. That $3.4 million difference could be very significant if we're bumping up against the LT ceiling.

I think for luxury tax purposes, the season starts on opening day and ends on the last day of the regular season.

I think the reason we chose to trade Buch now, was that we found someone willing to pay his whole contract, and waiting might have risked seeing him get hurt and us losing any chance to trade him later.

I think the roster flex space gained was a huge value gain for our team.

Enormous!

[moonslav59]

Ross is better than Barnes, Abad, Hembree and Elias..

Yes, I agree, but I think ERod is better than Ross, and that was the point I was making. Rather than send ERod down to AAA, because he has an option and we could keep more players around, I'd prefer to send down Barnes or Ross, if keeping Abad and Hembree around is the goal.

[moonslav59]

Wright is the 6th starter, imo. I'm not the biggest ERod fan, but I'd rather have him be a starter than Wright. My guess is that one of the starters will be injured in April/May and Wright will get a ton of opportunities to get into the rotation.

I like Wright as the starter over Pom, but it is very close.

I like how a knuckler messes with the opponent's hitters- sometimes for more than 1 game afterwards.

[moonslav59]

Yup, I think everyone sees Eduardo's potential.
He just hasn't been consistent enough yet.

True, and neither have Wright and Pom.

[moonslav59]

Well, were the 2015 Cubs in "win now" mode when they kept Kris Bryant down for 10 weeks? They certainly didn't do it because they thought opening day third baseman Mike Olt was the better player.

Teams do this kind of thing all the time, and some who don't sometimes find they should have. For example, if the Nationals were dead set on sticking to an innings limit on then rookie Stephen Strasburg, would it have made sense to wait until June to bring him up and have him for the post-season? Or were they right shutting him down prematurely and going into the post-season with Ross Detwiler making starts in the NLDS?

Your point is well taken, but I don't think ERod will be on an innings limit this year, so the only purpose for starting ERod in AA, apart from him sucking in ST'ing, would be to allow us to keep out-of-options pitchers like ABad or Hembree.

Sending Barnes or Ross down could accomplish the same goal.

ERod> Barnes
ERod> Ross

In my opinion: ERod> Wright & Pom

[mvp 78]

Yes, I agree, but I think ERod is better than Ross, and that was the point I was making. Rather than send ERod down to AAA, because he has an option and we could keep more players around, I'd prefer to send down Barnes or Ross, if keeping Abad and Hembree around is the goal.

Keeping Abad instead of Barnes, Ross or ERod is a weird goal, imo.

[mvp 78]

I like Wright as the starter over Pom, but it is very close.

I like how a knuckler messes with the opponent's hitters- sometimes for more than 1 game afterwards.

I just think Pom showed that he has a ton of upside as a starter last year. I'd give him another shot to see if the first half was a fluke. If it doesn't work out, he can go to the pen.

[mvp 78]

Your point is well taken, but I don't think ERod will be on an innings limit this year, so the only purpose for starting ERod in AA, apart from him sucking in ST'ing, would be to allow us to keep out-of-options pitchers like ABad or Hembree.

Sending Barnes or Ross down could accomplish the same goal.

ERod> Barnes
ERod> Ross

In my opinion: ERod> Wright & Pom

Was he on an innings limit last year?

[cp176]

I think that it is going to be interesting to see how they do use Pomeranz and Wright. Wright was literally lights out before the injury and Pomeranz is a big young kid with plenty of potential. I hate the idea of using a knuckle baller in the bullpen although it has been done before. I would also like to see Pomeranz get a shot at starting.
I have very little confidence in Kelly. I wish we had one more bullpen arm not named Wright or Pomeranz.

[S5Dewey]

So let's look at the pitching staff as it sits. Assuming we go with 12 pitchers we have...

3 starters with their spots locked up:

1) Sale
2) Price
3) Porcillo
Now we need two more to fill out the rotation

3 Relievers with their spots locked up

1) Kimbrel
2) Smith (when he comes back)
3) Thornburg

That’s six and it leaves us needing two starters and four relievers from Pomeranz, Wright, Barnes, Abad, Elias, Hembree, Kelly, ERod, Ross, & Scott, not to mention a plethora of other guys like Noe Ramirez. After we pick those six out we’re left with four more pretty good pitchers whom we don’t have a home for out of the ones I listed, plus the plethora.

My guess is that one of Pom, Wright, & Erod won’t be listed among the starters, so where does that person go and, with the TOR set and the last three innings set, where does he get to pitch? And wherever he pitches he occupies a BP slot leaving only three of the remaining seven + with the Sox.

Can you spell “LOGJAM”?

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

[mvp 78]

So let's look at the pitching staff as it sits. Assuming we go with 12 pitchers we have...

3 starters with their spots locked up:

1) Sale
2) Price
3) Porcillo
Now we need two more to fill out the rotation

3 Relievers with their spots locked up

1) Kimbrel
2) Smith (when he comes back)
3) Thornburg

That’s six and it leaves us needing two starters and four relievers from Pomeranz, Wright, Barnes, Abad, Elias, Hembree, Kelly, ERod, Ross, & Scott, not to mention a plethora of other guys like Noe Ramirez. After we pick those six out we’re left with four more pretty good pitchers whom we don’t have a home for out of the ones I listed, plus the plethora.

My guess is that one of Pom, Wright, & Erod won’t be listed among the starters, so where does that person go and, with the TOR set and the last three innings set, where does he get to pitch? And wherever he pitches he occupies a BP slot leaving only three of the remaining seven + with the Sox.

Can you spell “LOGJAM”?

If you only have 12 pitchers on opening day, you're fucked.

[Eddy Ballgame]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

[S5Dewey]

If you only have 12 pitchers on opening day, you're fucked.

Why? There are two days off in the first two weeks. Would you suggest starting the year with a six man rotation? Or would you add one more to the pen?

But.. ok. If we go with 13 pitchers we still have the same problem, only we do get to add one more from the four homeless ones - but he may very well not see any innings.