A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Why? There are two days off in the first two weeks. Would you suggest starting the year with a six man rotation? Or would you add one more to the pen?

But.. ok. If we go with 13 pitchers we still have the same problem, only we do get to add one more from the four homeless ones - but he may very well not see any innings.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that you need to have a 40 man roster with more than 12 good arms. It's not a "logjam," it's proper roster construction.

[moonslav59]

Keeping Abad instead of Barnes, Ross or ERod is a weird goal, imo.

I agree and have said that all along in the ERod to AAA debate, which is where this statement's context lies.

If Ross or Barnes struggles in ST'ing or has a little nagging injury, I could see us wanting to keep Abad and Hembree on our roster somehow-someway.

I don't think there's a big step down from Abad/Hembree to Scott/Workman, so losing one is not a big deal to me.

[moonslav59]

I just think Pom showed that he has a ton of upside as a starter last year. I'd give him another shot to see if the first half was a fluke. If it doesn't work out, he can go to the pen.

Wright had an awesome first half too, but in the AL in the toughest division in MLB. Only Kershaw and Bumgarner had a better 1st half ERA- than Wright.

[mvp 78]

Wright had an awesome first half too, but in the AL in the toughest division in MLB. Only Kershaw and Bumgarner had a better 1st half ERA- than Wright.

He's a great option as long as it's not too humid and the forecast is 0% chance of rain.

[moonslav59]

Was he on an innings limit last year?

I don't think so. He had pitched many innings in previous years on the farm. He's in winter ball now.

[moonslav59]

ERod is your #4. I know everyone looks at the overall numbers, but he was your second best starter once his health returned. That kid is going to be a good pitcher.

I totally agree. I know that Pom and Wright had excellent first halves this year, but to me, ERod is the #4 on paper right now.

[moonslav59]

To me, the only real roster issue is concerning Abad and Hembree's lack of options. Since Abad has just one year of team control, and his arb cost is estimated at $2M, trading or cutting him would not be a huge loss. I mean, we traded Pat freakin' Light for him last summer. We can trade for someone like him again, if needed. I can see us trading Abad near the end of ST'ing for a RP'er with options, if a roster crunch materializes.

Assuming no injuries at all, which is highly unlikely, so all this roster crunch debate would go down the drain the second one or two pitchers go on the DL, here's how I see it. Smith will not be on the opening day roster, so that prolongs one decision.

Locks: Kimbrel & Thornburg

Near locks: [Pom or Wright], Ross 2 options, Kelly 1, Barnes 2

That leaves room for one guy out of... (options remaining)

In order of skill level, in my opinion:

Hembree 0
Abad 0
Scott 3
Elias 1
Workman 2
Martin 3
Johnson 1/Owens 2
N Ramirez 1
Ysla 3

I know it's the time of year with not much to talk about, but is keeping Abad really all that important?

I could see a benefit of trading him, and adding $2M to out spending budget as worth more than he is regardless of a "roster crunch".

Someone will get hurt. If not, someone can go on the phantom DL.

The real roster crunch may come when Smith is ready, but again, someone will be hurt by then.

[moonslav59]

He's a great option as long as it's not too humid and the forecast is 0% chance of rain.

Wake seemed to do better when sweat was dripping off his face.

[Bellhorn04]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

[moonslav59]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

Yes, but I always thought that had to do with no wind.

His worst career ERA month was May. Tow of his best 3 were June and July.

His 3.29 ERA at TB makes us remember his dome advantage, but he also had...

Away ERA: 4.52

8.44 HOU -MinMaid
4.91 HOU- Astrodome
4.54 MN Metrodome
4.65 YOR Skydome
9.54 SEA Kingdome
3.43 SEA Safeco

[mvp 78]

Wake had some of his best numbers in domes, though, right? The knuckleball is a funny pitch.

Yup, each knuckleballer is a distinct animal. They talk about it in the Knuckleball! doc. It's hard for guys to coach one another when things go awry because each guy truly has a unique pitch.

Wake did love pitching at the Metrodome and the Trop. His best away park was Comerica, probably due to the huge OF. Of course, Skydome was a nightmare for him (worst WHIP for any stadium he pitched at more than 5 times).

He also did well at Kauffman, most likely due to the large OF there as well.

[moonslav59]

I pitched a knuckleball in slow-pitch softball for many years. I seemed to do best when I was pitching into a wind (yes wind blowing out). Lots of Ks- lots of long fly outs- lots of solo HRs, but overall, I did pretty well.

[notin]

Pretty close, in my mind, because of the pen. Wright or Pom in the pen greatly improves it.

ERod in AAA does nothing for our pen, except to maybe allow us to hold onto Abad or Hembree, which is nothing a creative DL can't handle.

Pom & Wright both have pen experience and could provide long and middle relief like nobody else in our pen, except maybe Kelly, but I think grooming him for the 7th or 8th inning set-up man makes more sense. However, if we are going to view Kelly as a possible spot starter and use him as the long man to start the year, I guess starting ERod in AAA could happen. I still think he'd have to be struggling in ST'ing for that to even be a consideration.

Just my opinion.

I agree. I get the feeling that sometimes people might confuse him with Felix Doubront.

If he has a solid spring and gets demoted to Pawtucket, this kid is going to be irate. These things always seem to work themselves out anyway, but I can't see them demoting him unless it's warranted.

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

[Eddy Ballgame]

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

Whether or not a guy made the all-star team "last year" wouldn't have any influence on my decision. Dombrowski said after the Sale trade that E-Rod & Pomeranz would be 4 & 5.

My guess is that in the unlikely event that all 6 starters remain healthy and all pitch well this spring, Wright or Pomeranz goes to the pen. Wright, because it would take him a lot less time to be stretched out if and when they need a starter and Pomeranz because he's actually done it. I don't think It would be very wise to screw with Rodriguez mentally, either, and that's exactly what you would be doing if he has a good spring.

[moonslav59]

Well someone will not be starting, even if all six have stellar springs.

Sale, Price and Porcello are starters if healthy.

That leaves Pomeranz, Wright and Rodriguez. Unlike me, the Sox seem to view Pomeranz as a starter. And they probably should given what they paid for him.

Wright could go to the bullpen, but in limited action he has fared better as a starter in his career.

So if one guy isn't in the rotation, should it be one of the two pitchers who played in the All Star game last yea? Or Rodriguez?

Again, I see a big loss putting one of those three in AAA, so the choice is primarily about who is the better two starters, and secondarily about who is best for the pen.

Personally, I like ERod best of the 3 as a starter, but I realize it is close, and a case can be made for each one, but I also have ERod listed as 3rd out of the three for the pen, so to me the choice should be beween Pom and Wright for the pen.

Pom and Wright have recent pen experience.