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Thread: A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

  1. #751
    Fight the Hate Dojji's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...
    You got that information from someone who didn't bother to check Pomeranz' minor league innings pitched. Pomeranz was not at his career high in innings pitched when we acquired him, because pitcing in the minors is still pitching, and he'd surpassed that inning total between the majors and the minors the year before.
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  2. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    You got that information from someone who didn't bother to check Pomeranz' minor league innings pitched. Pomeranz was not at his career high in innings pitched when we acquired him, because pitcing in the minors is still pitching, and he'd surpassed that inning total between the majors and the minors the year before.
    Minor league IP really isn't the same as major league IP.

    As a generalization, hitters have worse discipline and take fewer pitches, draw fewer walks and, well, get fewer hits. This is why many of them are still in the minors. Sure there are some legitimate hitters on the rise, but there are also many AAAA players who peak there. While not completely useless or disregarded, I also don't think they can be straight up compared to MLB IP one to one...

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    Fight the Hate Dojji's Avatar
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    When it comes to wear and tear on the arm, minor league IP is *EXACTLY* the same as major league IP. A good pitcher doesn't pitch differently just because it's the minors he's pitching in.
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  4. #754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    When it comes to wear and tear on the arm, minor league IP is *EXACTLY* the same as major league IP. A good pitcher doesn't pitch differently just because it's the minors he's pitching in.
    Not about pitching differently. But because he is facing overall weaker hitters, he gets through each inning on average with fewer pitches.

    Check out WHIP for most pitchers in the majors and minors, and typically they have better numbers in the minors (except for sinker ball pitchers, who usually do worse). Fewer baserunners is a big part of fewer pitches...

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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...
    The small sample size of success was tempting.I actually like Pom, but to me, it was all about Espi, and not so much that I want to never trade him or other prospects, but he might have saved us from having to give up ERod or Kopech to get Sale or Quintana.

    If you're going to trade a guy like Espi, we should be looking at an ace or high impact player, not a guy with a 3 slot ceiling. I guess I've come full circle and am being critical of Pom.

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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...
    And the good news is that you are certainly entitled to your opinion. i liked it because we were getting a young lefty who had already experienced success at the ml level. I am very excited to see what he can do in the future for us. Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The small sample size of success was tempting.I actually like Pom, but to me, it was all about Espi, and not so much that I want to never trade him or other prospects, but he might have saved us from having to give up ERod or Kopech to get Sale or Quintana.

    If you're going to trade a guy like Espi, we should be looking at an ace or high impact player, not a guy with a 3 slot ceiling. I guess I've come full circle and am being critical of Pom.
    Based on what tends to happen to highly proclaimed prospects often times, what do you think the odds are of Espinoza becoming that totr guy some are saying he might become?

  8. #758
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

    Espi is a pitcher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    Based on what tends to happen to highly proclaimed prospects often times, what do you think the odds are of Espinoza becoming that totr guy some are saying he might become?
    Not many pitchers rise to his ranking at his age.

    While that value is highly speculative, it is value nonetheless. The fact that it was far away value, makes it easier for some to just shake it off, but every great pitcher was once "far away value".

    To answer you question, I'd put his odds somewhere close to this:

    10% Cy Young competitive for 5+ years.
    23% Top of rotation quality
    [33% chance of being TOR]

    33% chance of being a solid 2 or 3 slot pitcher for 5+ yrs of control (which is Pom's ceiling for 2.3 yrs of control).

    23% chance of being a 4-5 slot starter.

    10% chance of not making an impact at all.


    I wouldn't argue against this...

    20% TOR for 5+ yrs
    30% 2-3 starter for 5+ yrs
    35% 4-5 starter for 5+ yrs
    15% not much impact, if any
    ____________________________________

    I put Pom's chances as such (for 2.3 years of team control:
    5% being an ace
    40% being a 2-3
    45% being a 4-5
    10% getting hurt or being minimal impact
    Last edited by moonslav59; 11-22-2016 at 12:42 PM.

  10. #760
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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    And the good news is that you are certainly entitled to your opinion. i liked it because we were getting a young lefty who had already experienced success at the ml level. I am very excited to see what he can do in the future for us. Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.
    Who doesn't?

    But bear in mind, he also gave up lesser prospects for half a season of David Price when he as in Detroit.


    Really, the SP market was thin and someone had to be acquired. The Sox needed SP help. I was OK giving up Espinoza, but I didn't like Pomeranz and figured him to be the major leaguer most likely to collapse in the second half. He didn't completely collapse, but he wasn't impressive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

    Espi is a pitcher.
    Moon - really - are you trying to be a little wise with me here?

  12. #762
    Fight the Hate Dojji's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

    Espi is a pitcher.
    No, Espi might be a pitcher. That's what prospect means. We'll see if he's a pitcher when he's done dominating kids who can't drink yet.
    If history tells us anything, the path to redeption for any bad baseball team is marked with a deep rotation of durable starters, a world class defense in both infield and outfield, a lineup that can generate runs in more than one way, a bullpen that won't steal defeat from the jaws of victory, and a top end catcher to hold the whole package together. These are the conditions by which victory is achieved, anything that does not accomplish these objectives is a waste of resources.

  13. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Not many pitchers rise to his ranking at his age.

    While that value is highly speculative, it is value nonetheless. The fact that it was far away value, makes it easier for some to just shake it off, but every great pitcher was once "far away value".

    To answer you question, I'd put his odds somewhere close to this:

    10% Cy Young competitive for 5+ years.
    23% Top of rotation quality
    [33% chance of being TOR]

    33% chance of being a solid 2 or 3 slot pitcher for 5+ yrs of control (which is Pom's ceiling for 2.3 yrs of control).

    23% chance of being a 4-5 slot starter.

    10% chance of not making an impact at all.


    I wouldn't argue against this...

    20% TOR for 5+ yrs
    30% 2-3 starter for 5+ yrs
    35% 4-5 starter for 5+ yrs
    15% not much impact, if any
    ____________________________________

    I put Pom's chances as such (for 2.3 years of team control:
    5% being an ace
    40% being a 2-3
    45% being a 4-5
    10% getting hurt or being minimal impact

    I asked for your opinion here. I realize it is a bit slanted. I really hope the best for Espinoza but I would be much more upset if some young arm closer to actually pitching at them level - say a Kopech- was traded away. Saying that Pomeranz very well might be a solid 2/3 (although DD thinks he could be better) is a far better bet for me personally than saying an 18 year old is going to be a totr pitcher in five years. Too much can go wrong. I'm just not much of a gambler.

  14. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    No, Espi might be a pitcher. That's what prospect means. We'll see if he's a pitcher when he's done dominating kids who can't drink yet.

    Doji - has he dominated anyone yet?

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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Who doesn't?

    But bear in mind, he also gave up lesser prospects for half a season of David Price when he as in Detroit.


    Really, the SP market was thin and someone had to be acquired. The Sox needed SP help. I was OK giving up Espinoza, but I didn't like Pomeranz and figured him to be the major leaguer most likely to collapse in the second half. He didn't completely collapse, but he wasn't impressive.
    I saw Pomeranz pitch this summer and very much liked what I saw. I still think that the potential for him to be a very solid contributor is right there.

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