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Thread: 2017 Yankees Season Thread

  1. #1

    2017 Yankees Season Thread

    You guys know me as the resident Yankee homer, but I anticipate that you'll notice an upbeat yet not terribly optimistic tune for my team in 2017. While I am very intrigued to see the youth movement in NY, I am also well aware of what a youth movement typically entails. I understand that this season is mostly a "bridge" with the hopes of developing the next set of all stars in NY, resetting our lux tax for 2018 and eventually jumping back into big money baseball for 2019. That being said, there is a LOT to analyze here, so here goes.

    Catcher
    Gary Sanchez is one of the biggest bright spots on a mixed up team of vets and rookies. He just turned 24 in December, so his year 23 season was absolutely insane, if not completely unexpected. Gary had been a guy who had enormous potential but had a bit of an attitude issue. Not making the Yankees out of ST seemed to set that attitude back where it needed to be. He was injured for part of the first half, but was promoted and absolutely exploded onto the scene. 20HR 1.033OPS in 53 games is stuff of legend. Other guys have had big debuts, but his was more pronounced and was definitely longer than your typical cup of coffee guys like Shane Spencer and Kevin Maas. Prior to 2016, he had topped out at 18HR in a season. In 2016, he had 30, with 2/3 being in NY. Now he didn't exactly come out of nowhere and he has shown the ability to hit for average in the minors as well, but I doubt he continues the MVP style pace he was on in 2016. My bet for Gary is a .275/.350/.470 season with 25HR and an absolute rock in the middle of the lineup. His defense was solid as well and he is looking the part of a guy who will likely man the tools of ignorance for a decade in NY. Our backup coming into 2017 will likely be Austin Romine to start. Romine is a solid defender with the skills to put the ball in play. He's your prototypical backup, but on his heels is Kyle Higashioka. Higa was a HS signee way back in 2008. He's always had great defensive tools, but never reached the lofty offensive potential he has until last season. After not hitting more than 8HR in a season in any of his many seasons in the minors, he smacked 21 between AA and AAA last yr. If the power remains, he might not just have a shot as a backup C in NY, but at some ABs as DH as well

    1B
    We lose a quasi HOF guy in Tex and have a myriad of options here. We signed Matt Holliday to be a DH, but he can definitely man 1b. We have Greg Bird coming back from injury. He filled in admirably in our postseason run in 2015 for Tex when he broke his leg, only to suffer a labrum tear that kept him out for all of 2016. He's healthy and back. He expects to be the LH portion of a platoon at 1b. This guy smacked 11HR in 157AB in 2015 and absolutely murdered RH pitching to the tune of a .915OPS. He has the tools to eventually take over the position, but coming off injury will likely be stuck in a time share until he proves himself. No idea what kind of line he will have since I don't know how healthy he really is. (We all hear guys say they are totally healthy and come out and look like a grandpa trying to play). But he has 30HR kind of power and the eye to be a high OBP masher. In the time share is Tyler Austin. Austin was once a major prospect before a wrist injury caused him to lose 3 seasons. He signed as a MiLB FA last yr back with NY and absolutely killed AAA pitching. He got promoted, was absolutely terrible in August and was dominant in Sept. What does he become? Who the hell knows, but he is a 25 yr old RH power hitter with the capability to drive the ball out to RF. In his SSS in NY, he had a near 1.100OPS vs lefties. He can also play 3b and COF if needed.

    2B
    Starlin Castro had a strange year in NY. Known more as a BA hitter, he jacked up and hit 20HR. His OBP was terrible as usual but with his renewed power, he was at least reasonable for his position in terms of production. He turns 27 in March, so we could expect more of the same, but with power surges, we know sometimes the player sustains and other times they fall off. Regardless, we could do worse at the keystone

    SS
    Didi Gregorius struggled for 3 months replacing Jeter in 2015. He was nearly replaced and the fans had turned on him. Then Girardi and Cash sat him down and told him they were sticking with him no matter what. That patience was rewarded. He hit well to finish 2015 and absolutely surged in 2016. He turns 27 in 2 weeks and is coming off a 20HR, .751OPS season. The defensive metrics didn't love him in 2016 like they did in 2015, but he has the stuff to be an elite defender and a perennial 3+ WAR player, especially if the D returns and the power stays. For a rebuilding team, we certainly have a lot of young and powerful talent from C, 1B, 2B, and SS

    3B
    Chase Headley is boring. For a month he was laughably bad. After that he was Chase Headley. He isn't a guy to hit 30HR like he did in a fluke year. He's a mid to low .700OPS guy with good D who doesn't excite anybody but at least plays steady enough to not worry about him. He somehow eeked out a 2.6WAR last yr, mostly based on defense. Watch for Gleyber Torres here. This kid is a top 5 prospect in baseball and has the goods to be a big league star. If we have to make room for the kid, Chase is probably the guy to go.

    LF
    Brett Gardner should have been traded. The elite speed is now above average. The elite D is now above average. The double digit HR power is now gone. He does bring a great eye and all around good set of skills. He's a table setter for a top notch team, but at 33 yrs old, he is a guy holding back a cadre of talent that could use the PT. Regardless, he is steady and should not be a liability in LF

    CF
    Jacoby Ellsbury is basically Brett Gardner with a worse arm and a worse reputation. It is redundant to have both of these guys on the team and with Gardy being a FA after the season, I get why he's the one up for trade. That being said, any and all offers for this guy must be entertained.

    RF
    This is an interesting position to say the least. We have Aaron Judge, a guy with Dave Winfield like size and power supposedly ready to assume the position. The one problem is, Judge didn't look ready in his brief stint in NY. The other problem is that Judge is injury prone. Mason Williams is more injury prone. He is also a lefty speed guy with no power a la Ellsbury, but he'd make our outfield even more redundant. Aaron Hicks stepped way back last yr in a reserve role and didn't grab any attention when he had his chance to win the job. Look for Clint Frazier to make his way in should he get hot in AAA

    DH
    Matt Holliday is set to be a full time DH. He's old, but has power and the OBP chops not to suck. You have to question whether father time can be extended now that he isn't expected to see the field, but there is also a chance Matt gets pressed into OF or 1b duty.

    The offense above is strange. Our best projected hitters are at C, 2b and SS. 1B should shake out by years end. 3B bores the shit out of me. The OF is our weak link if only because of muted potential in LF and CF. We should score some runs, but certainly not at the elite level
    The rebuild is complete.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    You guys know me as the resident Yankee homer, but I anticipate that you'll notice an upbeat yet not terribly optimistic tune for my team in 2017. While I am very intrigued to see the youth movement in NY, I am also well aware of what a youth movement typically entails. I understand that this season is mostly a "bridge" with the hopes of developing the next set of all stars in NY, resetting our lux tax for 2018 and eventually jumping back into big money baseball for 2019. That being said, there is a LOT to analyze here, so here goes.
    If I were a Yankees fan, I'd be excited about your youth movement. I also would not count the Yankees out this season. I don't think they'll have quite enough to get to the postseason, but I think they'll be a pretty decent team. They'll definitely be exciting to watch if you're a Yankees fan.

    I'm counting on Gardner and Ellsbury to drag you guys down.

  3. #3
    Most Yankee fans that I know wish that the Boss would resurrect and correct the course of this team. Th sons are all about profit above winning. The boss hated to lose.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    [T]he conclusion to be drawn is that there is no practical value in seeking this ideal lineup, and in that case any way in which it might be meaningfully termed "best" is irrelevant, academic at best, pedantic at worst
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  4. #4
    A700, then they're idiots. We rebuilt in the early 90s so we could win those titles. George spent after that to sustain. That's the model. Build your core from within, flash the cash to sustain. We will be signing Machado or Harper (or both). They'll be additions to a young core.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    A700, then they're idiots. We rebuilt in the early 90s so we could win those titles. George spent after that to sustain. That's the model. Build your core from within, flash the cash to sustain. We will be signing Machado or Harper (or both). They'll be additions to a young core.
    By definition Yankee fans are idiots, no exceptions.

    Say what you will about the Boss, and I loved to hate him, but he just didn't tolerate losing. The sons don't have the same fire burning inside, and as a Red Sox fan, I am very happy about it. The Yankee fans that I know who saw Mantle and Maris in their primes don't think a heck of a lot about any of this young core except Sanchez. They might have a couple of good major league players in the pipeline, but they could just as likely be a bunch of nobody's. One acquisition will not cure what ails the Yankees. The last Yankee Dynasty had a few great payers come out of their system, but they acquired a load of stars to go along with them. The Sons have passed on many ace free agents over the last few years. That is not the way to get back on top.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    [T]he conclusion to be drawn is that there is no practical value in seeking this ideal lineup, and in that case any way in which it might be meaningfully termed "best" is irrelevant, academic at best, pedantic at worst
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  6. #6
    a700, the best players get locked up to team friendly deals early on these days with players no longer hitting FA at 27 and 28, but now 30-31. Hence, you're getting a player in the last few yrs of his prime rather than as they are coming into it. Also, with the roids out of the game, guys start to decline around 33-34 rather than 36-37. The game has changed. You need to develop or deal for your core and spend to build around it. Machado and Harper are the exceptions to the rule. They will hit FA before they get their man strength and are likely heading into their prime rather than close to exiting it. Those are the guys we need to position for.

    Also, Sanchez is a guy to get excited about. Bird is as well. You may have forgotten, but the guy absolutely raked in 2015 for us and has all the looks of a middle of the order hitter for us for a long time. I also am excited about Gleyber. I am not as sold on Frazier, but we'll see on him
    The rebuild is complete.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    a700, the best players get locked up to team friendly deals early on these days with players no longer hitting FA at 27 and 28, but now 30-31. Hence, you're getting a player in the last few yrs of his prime rather than as they are coming into it. Also, with the roids out of the game, guys start to decline around 33-34 rather than 36-37. The game has changed. You need to develop or deal for your core and spend to build around it. Machado and Harper are the exceptions to the rule. They will hit FA before they get their man strength and are likely heading into their prime rather than close to exiting it. Those are the guys we need to position for.

    Also, Sanchez is a guy to get excited about. Bird is as well. You may have forgotten, but the guy absolutely raked in 2015 for us and has all the looks of a middle of the order hitter for us for a long time. I also am excited about Gleyber. I am not as sold on Frazier, but we'll see on him
    It is the time of year to be optimistic.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    [T]he conclusion to be drawn is that there is no practical value in seeking this ideal lineup, and in that case any way in which it might be meaningfully termed "best" is irrelevant, academic at best, pedantic at worst
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  8. #8
    This is about as optimistic as I can get about a team I don't think will make the POs

  9. #9
    Starting rotation analysis please.

  10. #10
    Rotation-
    This will be the largest weakness on this squad. We're definitely set in the 1 spot. Masahiro Tanaka has been a legitimate ace since arriving in NY. He topped 30 starts and had the third lowest ERA amongst starters in the AL. He will also be pitching for a new contract as he has an opt out after 2017. I expect him to continue his ace level performance, but the injury bug is always in the back of your head when talking about Tanaka.

    Our #2 is Sabathia. CC completed his reinvention last year and put in a very strong season. He has his concerns, notably age, health, peripherals and the drop off he experienced from the ASB on. He should be more a 4 than a 2, but this is how it is.

    Our #3 is Pineda. He's also pitching for a contract as he's a FA at seasons end. He's the exact opposite of CC. Started the year awful, finished well. Peripherals love him and his stuff is top notch. While I think CC has a track chance to bomb, Pineda seems like a good buy low candidate.

    And that's about it....

    Last 2 spots are wide open. We saw some really solid performances last yr and some real duds. We have hard throwing high K guys in there like Luis Cessa and Chad Green. You've got a sinkerballer in Mitchell. Severino isn't guaranteed a spot after his absolutely awful 2016, but he has the stuff to be better than anyone, even Tanaka. There's Montgomery the lefty as well who carved up AAA. We don't have any veteran depth and to this point haven't signed any veteran starters. It sound like we're ready to roll with the kids. After this top level, you have elite arms like Adams, Acevedo, Sheffield and Kaprielian who all should start at AA.

  11. #11
    Yankees sign a Chris Carter to 1 yr $3 mil deal. Guy ties for the NL HR lead and settles for a bargain basement contract? I like this for us for 2017, but it makes little sense from a development aspect. This may free Austin to be entered into our 4th OF conversation or be DFA'd. I hope not. Austin can play

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Yankees sign a Chris Carter to 1 yr $3 mil deal. Guy ties for the NL HR lead and settles for a bargain basement contract? I like this for us for 2017, but it makes little sense from a development aspect. This may free Austin to be entered into our 4th OF conversation or be DFA'd. I hope not. Austin can play
    I rarely if ever say this about Yankee teams, because they have always been competitive, but your 2017 team stinks.
    Last edited by a700hitter; 02-07-2017 at 04:28 PM.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
    [T]he conclusion to be drawn is that there is no practical value in seeking this ideal lineup, and in that case any way in which it might be meaningfully termed "best" is irrelevant, academic at best, pedantic at worst
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  13. #13
    This Yankee team might score some runs if Bird is productive.

  14. #14
    Carter might eat into Bird's reps. But Bird was crushing the ball in 15, so who knows how he is post injury

  15. #15
    Judge hits another absolute moonshot. This kid's power is legendary.

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