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Thread: Sox hitting??

  1. #2866
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Hmm...I have checked, double-checked, and triple-checked, and I still have 749 minus 620 coming out to 129.
    You're right. I swear, when I checked yesterday we were at 754 on fangraphs, and I added 5 after yesterday's win.

    Even at 129. my point is still valid, if we still led the league in runs scored as our number is on pace to have done against 2016's totals, we'd have to have a run differential of over 200. That very well might have had us up by 15 right by season's end.

    The issue is two fold:

    1) We scored about a hundred less runs this year (but also will let up much less).

    2) The rest of the league has scored way more runs than last year (mostly as a result of much more HRs).

    Here's a look at the top scoring teams (700 or more runs scored or projected to score) from 2016 and (projected) 2017 teams:
    (I added 5% to all 2017 teams.)

    878 BOS '16
    871 HOU '17
    857 NYY '17
    824 CLE '17
    819 MIN '17
    814 TEX '17
    787 BOS '17

    777 CLE '16
    768 SEA '16
    765 TEX '16

    763 BAL '17
    759 TOR '16
    753 SEA '17
    751 DET '17

    750 DET '16
    744 BAL '16

    740 OAK '17
    724 HOU '16
    722 MIN '16
    717 LAA '16

    714 KCR '17
    710 CWS '17
    701 LAA '17


  2. #2867
    Runs allowed 2016 and 2017 (projected):

    573 CLE '17
    651 BOS '17
    665 NYY '17

    666 TOR '16
    676 CLE '16
    694 BOS '16
    701 HOU '16
    702 NYY '16
    707 SEA '16

    707 HOU '17
    707 LAA '17
    708 TBR '17

    712 KCR '16
    713 TBR '16
    715 CWS '16
    715 BAL '16
    721 DET '16
    727 LAA '16
    757 TEX '16
    761 OAK '16

    777 SEA '17

    What's interesting here is that not only the Sox are allowing less runs than anyone less last year, despite the run scoring increase league-wide.



  3. #2868
    So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

    We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

    If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

    We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.

  4. #2869
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

    We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

    If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

    We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.
    I agree that the pitching is better but also let's not forget the difference our "Killer B's" outfield has made in preventing hits and runs.
    Any owners who sign previously suspended PED abusers to a big $$ contract are as guilty of perpetuating the PED problem as are the players.

  5. #2870
    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    I agree that the pitching is better but also let's not forget the difference our "Killer B's" outfield has made in preventing hits and runs.
    Yes, pitching and defense.

    If only our left side infield defense could improve, our D would be great.

    2016 vs 2017 Defensive Numbers:

    UZR/150

    6.7 LAA '16
    5.5 CLE '16
    5.2 SEA '17
    4.5 KCT '16
    4.3 BOS '16
    3.8 HOU '16
    3.5 CLE '17
    3.4 BOS '17

    DRS (projected 2017)
    61 TBR '17
    51 HOU '16
    48 BOS '16
    42 BOS '17

    It doesn't look like our overall defense has improved between 2016 and 2017.



  6. #2871
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

    We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

    If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

    We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.
    Pitching, defense and timing hitting are the keys to a championship.

    The hitting is what is driving every body crazy this year. It is so unpredictable,

    Take today's game. We have 1 run through 7 innings and our offense looks terrible, then explode for 4 runs in the 8th.

  7. #2872
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    Pitching, defense and timing hitting are the keys to a championship.

    The hitting is what is driving every body crazy this year. It is so unpredictable,

    Take today's game. We have 1 run through 7 innings and our offense looks terrible, then explode for 4 runs in the 8th.
    Runs are often scored in bunches. I'm not sure it's so unpredictable.

    We've hit well towards the ends of games, especially extra inning games.

  8. #2873
    So, as long as we don't dig ourselves an insurmountable hole to climb out of, we should be very competitive when ALL 9 Innings (or more) are said and done.

  9. #2874
    I do miss having Ortiz (of course everyone on here does save for the NY fans), but Sale has equalized that loss and then some. Is there a way to predict a favorite in playoff games for a short series vs a long series? I feel like our chances of advancement throughout the post season are better if any particular series drags on. Hmm.... I'll put it another way, the more a series drags on the more I like our chances. The more pitches we see, the better. The more times we get to use Sale, the better. We don't seem to have that almost guaranteed game changer (at least not this season) in our lineup everyday like we had in Ortiz (unless someone steps up-Betts?, Devers?). So, powering our way to a playoff win may not happen,. But we can wear teams down over a long series maybe.

  10. #2875
    Quote Originally Posted by Emp9 View Post
    I do miss having Ortiz (of course everyone on here does save for the NY fans), but Sale has equalized that loss and then some. Is there a way to predict a favorite in playoff games for a short series vs a long series? I feel like our chances of advancement throughout the post season are better if any particular series drags on. Hmm.... I'll put it another way, the more a series drags on the more I like our chances. The more pitches we see, the better. The more times we get to use Sale, the better. We don't seem to have that almost guaranteed game changer (at least not this season) in our lineup everyday like we had in Ortiz (unless someone steps up-Betts?, Devers?). So, powering our way to a playoff win may not happen,. But we can wear teams down over a long series maybe.
    Yes.

    The number one thing odds makers look at when setting the line is who is starting for each team.

  11. #2876
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes.

    The number one thing odds makers look at when setting the line is who is starting for each team.
    Yes, and tonight we will see Nunez return. He may well be rusty, but it is good to see him back in the lineup.

  12. #2877
    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    Yes, and tonight we will see Nunez return. He may well be rusty, but it is good to see him back in the lineup.
    Great news. Ease him in slowly.

    With Pedey looking shaky, Nunez could be a key force.

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