Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[notin]

Negative offensive WAR.

Largely carried by the negative baserunning component. All hid peripherals related to batting are above average.

An injured player who can't run on a team that has been willy-nilly on the basepaths all season shouldn't be expected to do all that well...

[Bellhorn04]

That’s the Weekly World News of WAR

Yes Mr. Stat Guru.

[mvp 78]

Yes Mr. Stat Guru.

Everyone knows that Bill James follows me on twitter to get new insight into how to properly count beans.

[mvp 78]

Largely carried by the negative baserunning component. All hid peripherals related to batting are above average.

An injured player who can't run on a team that has been willy-nilly on the basepaths all season shouldn't be expected to do all that well...

And offense should include baserunning stats. Pedroia is a horrible baserunner and his WAR reflects that. All in, Marco Hernandez would be at least as good as Pedroia offensively if not a little better.

[notin]

And offense should include baserunning stats. Pedroia is a horrible baserunner and his WAR reflects that. All in, Marco Hernandez would be at least as good as Pedroia offensively if not a little better.

Based on what? His 60 plate appearances that were carried by an insanely unsustainable .372 BABIP?

[moonslav59]

Based on what? His 60 plate appearances that were carried by an insanely unsustainable .372 BABIP?

I'm not going to compare MH to Pedey, but he did have an OPS over .780 in the minors over his last two seasons (AA>AAA).

He looks to be a decent hitter. His defense is suspect, but 2B might be the best fit for him.

He MIGHT be a capable back-up who can fill in nicely, when Pedey DHs or is on the DL.

I like him more than Holt, marrero or Lin at 2B.

[mvp 78]

Based on what? His 60 plate appearances that were carried by an insanely unsustainable .372 BABIP?

Why is that unsustainable? He's carried a high BABIP the majority of his professional career. I think 2016 Marco Hernandez is a good indication of the offensive player he is.

[mvp 78]

I'm not going to compare MH to Pedey, but he did have an OPS over .780 in the minors over his last two seasons (AA>AAA).

He looks to be a decent hitter. His defense is suspect, but 2B might be the best fit for him.

He MIGHT be a capable back-up who can fill in nicely, when Pedey DHs or is on the DL.

I like him more than Holt, marrero or Lin at 2B.

And all I've ever said is that he could "adequately fill in" for Pedroia. Not sure why that upsets some people.

[OH FOY!]

Last night on radio, they said the Astros are the anti Bill James team. Swing at most 1st Pitches in Baseball. Their OBP is the best because they get hits (swing the bat), and don't rely on BB's.

[Bellhorn04]

And all I've ever said is that he could "adequately fill in" for Pedroia. Not sure why that upsets some people.

I don't think anyone's upset, just arguing as usual, in this case about the contention that Marco is 'offensively about the same if not a little bit better than Pedroia going forward'.

[notin]

Why is that unsustainable? He's carried a high BABIP the majority of his professional career. I think 2016 Marco Hernandez is a good indication of the offensive player he is.

1. Having a high BABIP in the miniors isn't the same as having a high BABIP in the majors. As minor league pitchers ae usually not as good, it's easier to maintain higher line drive rates against them.

2. Very small sample size. Do you also believe hi 1.7% walk rate and 25% strike out rate are also accurate predictions going forward?

3. Even with his small sample size, his xBABIP is .331. That drop off right there knocks his .276BA last year down to a .255 over 600PA. And there would be corresponding drops in OBP and SLG.

[mvp 78]

I don't think anyone's upset, just arguing as usual, in this case about the contention that Marco is 'offensively about the same if not a little bit better than Pedroia going forward'.

Well, he is, obviously. So what's there to argue about?

"What have I been saying all these years? Huh, what have I been saying all these years? You humanoids!" Bobby the Brain Heenan

[mvp 78]

1. Having a high BABIP in the miniors isn't the same as having a high BABIP in the majors. As minor league pitchers ae usually not as good, it's easier to maintain higher line drive rates against them.

2. Very small sample size. Do you also believe hi 1.7% walk rate and 25% strike out rate are also accurate predictions going forward?

3. Even with his small sample size, his xBABIP is .331. That drop off right there knocks his .276BA last year down to a .255 over 600PA. And there would be corresponding drops in OBP and SLG.

In two years, his BABIP in MLB was .361. Maybe his skill set will keep his BABIP high?

At what point is a BABIP too high for you? What's normal? What's too low? Don't some swings and hit tools bring about different rates of BABIP? A guy constantly hitting line drives would be more likely to have a higher BABIP than a fly ball hitter.

[notin]

In two years, his BABIP in MLB was .361. Maybe his skill set will keep his BABIP high?

At what point is a BABIP too high for you? What's normal? What's too low? Don't some swings and hit tools bring about different rates of BABIP? A guy constantly hitting line drives would be more likely to have a higher BABIP than a fly ball hitter.

His xBABIP is based on his line drive/flyball/groundball rates and if his BABIP exceeds his xBABIP, it's probably too high. Speed can certainly influence it as well, although Hernandez, while not slow, probably won't see a huge boost from his speed unless he starts hitting more groundballs.

For nearly every player in MLB, a high BABIP of .376 is usually an indicator a player is just having a great year they are unlikely to repeat. This year, only 3 players in MLB had a BABIP as high as Hernandez over a full season - Avisail Garcia, Jose Altuve and Tommy Pham. And for two of those guys, this year certainly looks like an aberration against the rest of their careers. A lot of other players have come close to his number, but again, many of them, such as Chris Taylor and Tim Beckham, are also having career years. Over the last 3 years, no player has a BABIP as high as Hernandez had last year. DJ LaMahieu comes closest, and he has an obvious advantage.

Hernandez has 116 career plate appearances in MLB, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. There is nothing he has done so far that should make anyone think they have an accurate picture of him going forward.

But if you are such a large proponent of these small sample sizes, at what point do we acknowledge his offensive fWAR of -2.6 is a negligible improvement of Pedroia's -2.7?

[mvp 78]

His xBABIP is based on his line drive/flyball/groundball rates and if his BABIP exceeds his xBABIP, it's probably too high. Speed can certainly influence it as well, although Hernandez, while not slow, probably won't see a huge boost from his speed unless he starts hitting more groundballs.

For nearly every player in MLB, a high BABIP of .376 is usually an indicator a player is just having a great year they are unlikely to repeat. This year, only 3 players in MLB had a BABIP as high as Hernandez over a full season - Avisail Garcia, Jose Altuve and Tommy Pham. And for two of those guys, this year certainly looks like an aberration against the rest of their careers. A lot of other players have come close to his number, but again, many of them, such as Chris Taylor and Tim Beckham, are also having career years. Over the last 3 years, no player has a BABIP as high as Hernandez had last year. DJ LaMahieu comes closest, and he has an obvious advantage.

Hernandez has 116 career plate appearances in MLB, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. There is nothing he has done so far that should make anyone think they have an accurate picture of him going forward.

But if you are such a large proponent of these small sample sizes, at what point do we acknowledge his offensive fWAR of -2.6 is a negligible improvement of Pedroia's -2.7?

All I've ever said is that he's at least as good if not a little better. You've proved my point.