I have talked probably ad nauseum about the "window" for the sox. We all are in agreement that the sox are inside their window right now. I would assume that everyone feels the window will extend a few seasons. Here are a few reasons why the window looks to close in 2020. I am assuming the sox re-sign all their big producers
Craig Kimbrel becomes a FA after 2018. He is probably the best reliever in baseball right now. Re-signing him with likely start with Chapman money, which is $18 mil per season. Let's say the sox do that
Xander Bogaerts becomes a FA after 2019. He is intent on going year to year. Even with his power outage, he is on pace to set a high watermark in WAR at 5.4. If he continues producing at this level, and with Boras as his agent, there is no reason to think he cannot get $25 mil per annum on the open market. Per fangraphs projections, he has been worth nearly $70 mil the last 2 seasons and this yr he is on pace to be worth $40 mil. Now while I don't think that's reasonable in this market, I do think $25 mil per annum is about right
Jackie Bradley Jr. becomes a FA after 2019. He was worth $38.8 mil last yr and is on pace to repeat that this season. Once again, I think it is unlikely he sees that amount, but I think $22 mil per season on the open market is reasonable for a defensive whiz at a premium position who can hit for a mid .800s OPS with 20HR power
Chris Sale becomes a FA after 2019. He will turn 31 in ST in the first year of his new deal. He already took a discount. He isn't taking another one. With Price and Kershaw resetting the market north of $30 mil per annum, by 2020, we might be talking about $35-$40 mil. For this projection, lets use $35 mil per year
Mookie Betts becomes a FA after 2020. On his current pace, he is looking at an arb total above $22 mil for his final season of arb akin to Harper's deal for 2018. After 2020, he is looking at a deal akin to Harper's in FA which will clearly reset the market after 2018.
Benintendi will be in his first arb year and likely making $5 mil or so
David Price- $31 mil
Dustin Pedroia- $13 mil
Kimbrel- $18 mil
Bogaerts- $25 mil
Bradley- $22 mil
Sale- $35 mil
Betts- $22 mil
Beni- $5 mil
For 2020 alone, the salaries above total out at $171 mil with Betts and Beni looking at bigger money in 2021. By that point, Pedroia will be doing his Jeter lap and Price will likely be your #5 starter. By 2020, I believe the number is $210 million. If the sox want to keep the band together, they will have a mere $39 mil to fill out the rest of their pen aside from closer, 3 rotation slots from 2-4, C, 1B, 3B, and DH. I know the lux tax limit isn't really a limit, but Boston hasn't proven to be willing to shoot past that number aside from a few mil here and there. While I expect NY to be above that number by 2020, NY and LA have proven to not really care about lux tax when it comes to financing a winning team. Hence the window. It helps to have kids playing in those spots, but with the damage done to the farm by DD in going for it and the end of the round draftees the sox are looking to have due to their success, the likelihood of bringing in premium talent through the draft will be difficult. So that means filling the rest of your team out with free agents. They are expensive and typically older. You're looking at 4 position players, 3 starters and at least one higher priced reliever to tandem with Kimbrel, assuming nobody fades due to injury or ineffectiveness. It's a hell of a problem to have, having your core be young together, but it also leads to what NYY dealt with after 2000. Young stars got expensive, we picked later in rounds and didn't develop well and ended up having to fill our needs with high priced FAs. Payrolls bloated with diminishing returns. The money be damned approach extended our "window" really through 2012, but our special team from the 96-01 seasons were well past their primes or retired by then.
This brings me to the point about 3b and the need to maximize your success in your window. You've got 2 more years after this one assuming you re-sign Kimbrel. You don't waste 33% of your window because you're afraid to deal for the one or two critical needs your team has now.