A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Time for Part III.

Here's the link to Part II: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...t-2017-Part-II

Looks like we aren't getting the big bat many wanted, unless we do it via the waiver wire. We did pick up Addison Reed for Nogosek, Callahan & Bautista. He's a solid RP'er who gives us a nice secondary closer and a set-up man with a nice K rate (9.5 career/8.8 in 2017). If we can get Kelly and/or Smith back and pitching well, our pen might remain a plus to end the season.

I haven't heard who the Sox are sending down to AAA, but my guess is it will be Maddox. Here's the 25 man roster going forward:

5 SPers:
Sale
Pomeranz
Price (replaces Fister)
Porcello
Rodriguez

7 RPers:
Kimbrel
A Reed
C Smith (replaces Boyer)
Barnes
Hembree
Workman
Kelly (replaces Abad)

2 C:
Vazquez
Leon

1B:
Ramirez (DH)
Moreland

2B:
Pedroia
Holt (UT)

3B:
Devers
Nunez (DH/SS/LF)

SS:
Bogaerts

LF:
Benintendi
Young (DH)

CF:
Bradley

RF:
Betts

Possible 2017 additions from the farm or DL:
SP: Velazquez, B Johnson (DL), Justin Haley, Jalen Beeks, Roenis Elias
RP: Robby Scott, Ben Taylor (DL), Edgar Olmos, Kyle Martin, Noe Ramirez
C: Dan Butler, Swihart (DL)
1B: Sam Travis
IF: Marrero & Lin
OF: Brentz (not on 40 man roster), Selsky, Castillo (not on 40 man roster)

Looks like the Yankees are our key competition for the AL East and the Astros and Indians are looking better than us so far. The Yanks just added Gray & Garcia, so we have our work cut out for us. I still like our rotation, when healthy and having Kimbrel and Addison gives us a very nice 4 starters/2 RP'ers playoff group.

We have to make the playoffs first, and right now we're 1/2 game behind in the AL East and 1.5 up on the Royals for the home field in the WC game. We are 4 up on the Rays for the last playoff slot.

Here's the rest of our schedule:

Home: 31 (60% winning)
Away: 25 (48%)

10 NYY (3H/7A)
9 TOR (6H/3A)
8 TBR (6H/2A)
6 BAL (3H/3A)
7 CLE (3H/4A)
4 CWS
4 HOU (to end the season)
3 OAK
3 @ CIN
2 STL


If we can go 8-4 in the 12 games vs CWS, Oak, Cin & StL, 6-3 vs TOR and 4-2 vs BAL, then maybe we can get by going near .500 in our 29 games vs NYY, TBR, CLE & Hou.

Let's see. I'm actually pretty optimistic about this season despite our recent swoon.

[Bellhorn04]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

[moonslav59]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

Agreed, and if Devers and Nunez can keep contributing, we might be looking good come playoff time.

[oldtimer]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

Funny how we get Nunez and bring up Devers and they are both hitting like major parts of our lineup, while against the same pitchers we aren't getting much from Mookie, Beni, Hanley and Bradley at times. Thats not to mention Moreland who was talked about by the color man tonight as falling away when he swings, something I had mentioned earlier. Bogaerts just looks messed up at the plate, although somehow he managed to hit t he ball hard. Maybe that is just him but he has so much odd movement in his swing it is hard to believe that makes him a better hitter. He is a pretty big guy who shows little power. Pedey is injured but will likely hit once back. We need more than a couple of guys who are hitting with authority to have a dangerous offense. Are the guys not coachable or not being coached?

[moonslav59]

Nunez gives us a chance to cover for Pedey's injury, give Bogey a rest at SS, sit Beni vs tough lefties and maybe sit Moreland more than he would like to sit.

Devers could provide the spark we have been missing. If he keeps hitting, maybe the vets will catch on fire, too.

For some reason, I'm not too confident Bogey will regain his form this season. I think he needs a 10 day DL stint once Pedey returns.

Moreland may never come close to his start numbers.

Yes, we need Betts to get hot.

[Nick]

Devers 4-4....he's up there to get a hit....And he didn't cost us a thing!

[oldtimer]

Time for Part III.

Here's the link to Part II: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...t-2017-Part-II

Looks like we aren't getting the big bat many wanted, unless we do it via the waiver wire. We did pick up Addison Reed for Nogosek, Callahan & Bautista. He's a solid RP'er who gives us a nice secondary closer and a set-up man with a nice K rate (9.5 career/8.8 in 2017). If we can get Kelly and/or Smith back and pitching well, our pen might remain a plus to end the season.

I haven't heard who the Sox are sending down to AAA, but my guess is it will be Maddox. Here's the 25 man roster going forward:

5 SPers:
Sale
Pomeranz
Price (replaces Fister)
Porcello
Rodriguez

7 RPers:
Kimbrel
A Reed
C Smith (replaces Boyer)
Barnes
Hembree
Workman
Kelly (replaces Abad)

2 C:
Vazquez
Leon

1B:
Ramirez (DH)
Moreland

2B:
Pedroia
Holt (UT)

3B:
Devers
Nunez (DH/SS/LF)

SS:
Bogaerts

LF:
Benintendi
Young (DH)

CF:
Bradley

RF:
Betts

Possible 2017 additions from the farm or DL:
SP: Velazquez, B Johnson (DL), Justin Haley, Jalen Beeks, Roenis Elias
RP: Robby Scott, Ben Taylor (DL), Edgar Olmos, Kyle Martin, Noe Ramirez
C: Dan Butler, Swihart (DL)
1B: Sam Travis
IF: Marrero & Lin
OF: Brentz (not on 40 man roster), Selsky, Castillo (not on 40 man roster)

Looks like the Yankees are our key competition for the AL East and the Astros and Indians are looking better than us so far. The Yanks just added Gray & Garcia, so we have our work cut out for us. I still like our rotation, when healthy and having Kimbrel and Addison gives us a very nice 4 starters/2 RP'ers playoff group.

We have to make the playoffs first, and right now we're 1/2 game behind in the AL East and 1.5 up on the Royals for the home field in the WC game. We are 4 up on the Rays for the last playoff slot.

Here's the rest of our schedule:

Home: 31 (60% winning)
Away: 25 (48%)

10 NYY (3H/7A)
9 TOR (6H/3A)
8 TBR (6H/2A)
6 BAL (3H/3A)
7 CLE (3H/4A)
4 CWS
4 HOU (to end the season)
3 OAK
3 @ CIN
2 STL


If we can go 8-4 in the 12 games vs CWS, Oak, Cin & StL, 6-3 vs TOR and 4-2 vs BAL, then maybe we can get by going near .500 in our 29 games vs NYY, TBR, CLE & Hou.

Let's see. I'm actually pretty optimistic about this season despite our recent swoon.

Maybe Fister replaces Price, especially if David has a worse strain than we have been given to believe.

[moonslav59]

Devers da man!

[Nick]

I really like Nunez....

[Larry Cook]

Time for mookie to join the party. Quit trying for a moonshot every at bat. Just get on base mookie!

Maybe we can get some life out of Moreland, bogey and rest of the zombies.

[moonslav59]

Good to see Vaz put a couple of good games together.

I almost choked when I saw Holt bat 2nd. This JF loyalty crap has to stop soon. Then, Holt gets on base 3 of 5 times! Go figure! His OPS is now over .500.

Top Sox OPS

1.231 Devers (27 PAs)
.806 Betts
.791 Pedey
.790 Nunez (2 teams)
.777 HRam
.775 JBJ
.775 Travis (50 PAs)
.748 Beni
.747 Bogey
.739 Lin (59 PAs)
.732 Moreland
.719 Young
.684 Leon
.672 Vaz
.628 Marco (60)
.622 Pablo (108)
.576 Marrero (166)
.558 Rutledge (118)
.506 Holt (63)

Looking to next year, if we can replace these numbers with Devers at 3B and a new big bat at 1B/DH, maybe our offense will return to top 3 status...

PAs OPS Player to be replaced
3B PAs only
142 .617 Marrero (.576 at all positions)
97 .603 Pablo (.622 overall)
64 .607 Rutledge (.558 overall)
30 .278 Holt (.506 overall)
27 .556 Hernandez 9.628 overall)

Replace with... Devers (a healthy Hernandez & Lin)

DH/1B
380 .734 Moreland at 1B (.732 overall)
47 .774 Young at DH (.710 overall)

Replace with a good FA and Travis (.775)

[moonslav59]

None of our 8 top PA players this year are below .732. All 8 are within .075 of each other. (I counted Nunez in the 8.)

Our next 3 (9-11th in PAs) are within .047 of each other (between .672 and .719).

I'm not sure any other team has all of their top 11 PAs players over .672, but I'm not sure there are many teams without one top 11 player over .806 either.

[cp176]

The under peformance of all of our guys is just killing me here though. That might seem just a little sarcastic i guess. I have contended for quite some time that although we might think that these boys are capable of more, this might actually be closer to who they are as a group. Nunez and Devers have certainly given our stagnant offense a lift. More power is still needed in this lineup.

[mvp 78]

Devers isn't ready! Cafardo told me!

[cp176]

Devers isn't ready! Cafardo told me!

i wonder if shaugnessey (sp) will come up with a hot story about Dever's dietary habits. Just something to keep us involved and moving on.