A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Kimmi]

The team is still young and are going to continue to have growing pains. Need to be a little more patient.

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want. It's a good foundation for a ball club, one that many other organizations are jealous of. Don't let one loss distract you from that.

I am impressed by this post. It sounds like something I would say.

Except I would have added the part about the cliff.

[Nick]

What difference does it make if you win the division with pitching or you win it with offense?

Personally, I'd rather win it with great pitching and a mediocre offense.

93 wins is 93 wins.

You completely missed my point.

I was responding and basically agreeing to Moon's revelation of where our position players rank in terms of WAR. Betts was the only Sox to finish in the top 10, as a RF. DH, 1B and 3B positions ranked near bottom in mlb.

Then MVP butts in says we won 93 games.

I pointed out it was mainly due to pitching and defense. "Look it up"

Discussion was about how pathetic our position players did in comparison to others.

[moonslav59]

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want.

$31M Price through '22
$22M HRam through '19
$21M Porcello through '19
$19M Pablo through '19
$14M Pedey through '21
$12M Castillo through '19

Assuming you don't mean Pablo, HRam, Porcello & Castillo, we have
$45M in Price in Pedey for forever and a day.

So, we extend...

After 2018 (estimates)
$30M+ Sale
$18M+ Pomeranz
$18M+ Kimbrel
??? J Kelly
??? R Ross

After 2019
$18M+ Bogey
??? Thornburg
??? B Holt

After 2020
$25M+ Betts
$15M+ JBJ
??? Vazquez
??? Smith
??? Wright

My head is spinning trying to add all this up!
??? Leon

[moonslav59]

You completely missed my point.

I was responding and basically agreeing to Moon's revelation of where our position players rank in terms of WAR. Betts was the only Sox to finish in the top 10, as a RF. DH, 1B and 3B positions ranked near bottom in mlb.

Then MVP butts in says we won 93 games.

I pointed out it was mainly due to pitching and defense. "Look it up"

Discussion was about how pathetic our position players did in comparison to others.

Yes, and clearly our best chance to improve could come from improving the worst of our positions.

Devers offers us hope at 3B, although his defense has a long way to go. Luckily, he doesn't have to do all that great to improve on what we had there this year on D.

1B and DH offer our best area to improve. Those are usually the easiest positions to upgrade without spending too much, but this year's FA class is weak on 1Bman. I'd love to see us seriously upgrade both. We might also need to get someone who can cover for Pedey, if needed.

I think we will not deal with significant pitching upgrades this winter.

[Northern Star]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

[fxkatt]

Well 73 million come off the books in '19. Perhaps only then will we have some real options in terms of truly improving the team. We sure will be lighter if nothing else. Bad contracts have a way of weighing a team down no matter how rich it is. And at least at this very moment, the team seems weighed down in big and cumbersome contracts.

[moonslav59]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

Hopefully his shoulder(s) will improve. Maybe he can play some 1B.

I think the idea might be to eat the money and platoon him at 1B/DH...maybe with Duda at 1B with JD Martinez brought in to DH.

The problem is, what if JD becomes the next HRam.

Is there another easier position to improve besides 1B then DH?

[fxkatt]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

Impossible to trade him, I think. So, for personal me, I see no real success until 2020. But I hope I'm wrong.

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on how much Henry is willing to spend this winter with the luxury tax reset and all.

If he allows DD to sign JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. We could squeeze HRam out of his vesting option for 2019 and greatly improve our chances not just for 2018 but beyond as well-- assuming they don't flop.

1. Bogey SS
2. Betts RF
3. Beni LF
4. Martinez DH/1B
5. Duda-Nunez 1B/DH
6. Devers-Nunez 3B
7. Pedey-Nunez 2B
8. JBJ CF
9. Vaz C

Bench: Leon, (Nunez), HRam, Hernandez

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, ERod, Porcello, Wright
RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Workman, Hembree

AAA:
Holt (?), Travis, Lin, Marrero, Barfield, Castillo, Mars
Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks, Haley, Elias, Owens
Maddox, Scott, Ross, Taylor, Martin, Buttrey, Cosart

[moonslav59]

Would starting a new thread titled "A Realistic View at 2018" now, give the appearance I'm giving up on 2017?

Cause I'm not.

[moonslav59]

Interesting article...

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-...paltry-offense

Some flaws...

He speaks of our base running as being "frightening" and that it didn't matter since we sucked at getting on base. Wrong and wrong.

We finished 11th in OBP at .329, which was just .010 from being tied for second.

Our base running, despite all the bonehead plays, which is maybe what he meant as "frightening", we top tier in MLB.

[devildavid]

Interesting article...

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-...paltry-offense

Some flaws...

He speaks of our base running as being "frightening" and that it didn't matter since we sucked at getting on base. Wrong and wrong.

We finished 11th in OBP at .329, which was just .010 from being tied for second.

Our base running, despite all the bonehead plays, which is maybe what he meant as "frightening", we top tier in MLB.

I think Farrell's base running philosophy hurts the scoring potential of this team.

[oldtimer]

A lot depends on how much Henry is willing to spend this winter with the luxury tax reset and all.

If he allows DD to sign JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. We could squeeze HRam out of his vesting option for 2019 and greatly improve our chances not just for 2018 but beyond as well-- assuming they don't flop.

1. Bogey SS
2. Betts RF
3. Beni LF
4. Martinez DH/1B
5. Duda-Nunez 1B/DH
6. Devers-Nunez 3B
7. Pedey-Nunez 2B
8. JBJ CF
9. Vaz C

Bench: Leon, (Nunez), HRam, Hernandez

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, ERod, Porcello, Wright
RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Workman, Hembree

AAA:
Holt (?), Travis, Lin, Marrero, Barfield, Castillo, Mars
Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks, Haley, Elias, Owens
Maddox, Scott, Ross, Taylor, Martin, Buttrey, Cosart

With the exception of Devers, the younger players on our team are in the second round of playoffs and are not doing well offensively. Certainly not well enough to beat the top contenders in the American League. One can dispute that, but we are seeing this by the results of our playoff series. I have asked why before and I still think it is a key question, since it will have a bearing on what should be done for next season. Is it that our players not only don't have power but also are just not that good when compared to the playoff teams rosters? Is it that the players are not getting the best coaching or that they don't really listen? Or is that the tone set in the clubhouse isn't positive enough to stimulate these guys to do better? Devers is a special case since he is raw and has power but seems to have reverted and is currently lacking plate discipline. It probably is a combination of all of those things plus the financial limitations this year prevented the kind of action that would have moved us closer to parity.

Personally, I think DD will be attempting to add a power bat or two to the lineup, but I also think he will consider trading some of our underperforming players, look for a managerial replacement and change hitting coaches.

[moonslav59]

I think Farrell's base running philosophy hurts the scoring potential of this team.

We were a plus on overall base running this year, according to the numbers. I liked the "aggressive" philosophy, but I did feel like we had more than our fair share of bonehead mistakes. I'm sure making bonehead mistakes was not part of JF's philosophy, and I have been careful to separate slightly over aggressive decisions from blunders, but I do feel JF could have had a better influence on lessening the lack of focus mistakes.

Note: Fangraphs ranks us 10th on base running at +5.1.

[moonslav59]

With the exception of Devers, the younger players on our team are in the second round of playoffs and are not doing well offensively. Certainly not well enough to beat the top contenders in the American League. One can dispute that, but we are seeing this by the results of our playoff series. I have asked why before and I still think it is a key question, since it will have a bearing on what should be done for next season. Is it that our players not only don't have power but also are just not that good when compared to the playoff teams rosters? Is it that the players are not getting the best coaching or that they don't really listen? Or is that the tone set in the clubhouse isn't positive enough to stimulate these guys to do better? Devers is a special case since he is raw and has power but seems to have reverted and is currently lacking plate discipline. It probably is a combination of all of those things plus the financial limitations this year prevented the kind of action that would have moved us closer to parity.

Personally, I think DD will be attempting to add a power bat or two to the lineup, but I also think he will consider trading some of our underperforming players, look for a managerial replacement and change hitting coaches.

Since all 8 of our top 8 returning players by 2016 PAs declined this year- most by over 85 points, it's hard to choose which one or two to trade. Trading would also cause another hole to fill via another trade or signing.

Our signings have not worked out too well, so it's hard to feel very confident in that method of fixing our higher need areas. There's a significant chance we trade the wrong guy or two, if that's the road we choose.

Again, the major declines...

The Young...

JBJ .832> .835> .726 (-109)

Beni .835> .776 (-59)

Bogey .776> .802> .746 (-56)



The middle aged...

Leon .439> .845> .644 (-201)

Holt .727> .705> .548 (-157)

Young .773 (NYY)> .850> .709 (-141)

HRam .717> .866> .750 (-116)

Pedey .797> .825> .760 (-65)


I'm sorry, but I just can't believe that all these guys are worse than I thought they were. All but HRam and Leon did worse in 2017 that 2015, too!


Vazquez was our number 11 guy in PAs last year. We lost Papi and Shaw, so he is number 9 in returning players by PAs:

Vaz n/a> .585> .735 (+150)


So, who do you trade?

We can't trade HRam. Pedey will probably not be dealt with his injury history and multiple years under contract. Young and Moreland are FAs.

Bogey? Play Marco/Lin at SS?

JBJ? Play Beni in CF and sign a LF'er?

Leon? Won't get much back.

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade any of our under performers, but selling low is not usually a winning strategy, and I don't see any prospects ready to step in for the player(s) we trade.