There is a common belief among many fans that the Red Sox have a 3 year window (beginning in 2017) to win a championship. After the three year window is up (in 2020), the Red Sox will need to rebuild. However, I don’t agree with this assessment.
Let’s take a look at the Red Sox in 2020. One important piece of info: I believe the Red Sox are going to sign Hosmer for 1b after the 2017 season. I will operate on that assumption (I have taken a conservative approach in saying that Hosmer will be the only major free agent acquisition for the Red Sox over the next three years). Also, I’m not going to address the bullpen due to the extreme amount of volatility among relievers. It is virtually impossible to predict the Red Sox bullpen in 2020.
2020 Red Sox – position players:
1b: Hosmer (30 years old)
2b: Pedroia (36 years old)
SS: ???
3b: Devers (3 years from now he will still be a young guy!)
C: Vazquez (still under 30)
LF: Benintendi (26 years old)
CF: Bradley (final year of arbitration)
RF: Betts (final year of arbitration – will still be under 30 years old)
DH: Chavis (he will be around 25 years old)
NOTES: Bogaerts is a free agent after the 2019 season. I wouldn’t resign him--his defense at SS isn't good enough. Top international prospect Daniel Flores (C) will turn 20 in 2020 and will likely be a year or two away from replacing Vazquez.
This doesn’t seem like a rebuilding team to me. At this point, Hosmer and Betts should still be really good. Benintendi, Chavis, and Devers will hopefully be stars. The Red Sox will need solid depth behind the 36 year old Pedroia, but maybe he can age gracefully, kind of like Ben Zobrist.
2020 Red Sox Starting Staff:
David Price (34 years old, I doubt he opts out)
E.Rodriguez (27 years old—arbitration year)
???
???
???
NOTES: C.Sale is a free agent after 2019. R.Porcello is a free agent after 2019.
While the Red Sox have stability with their position players for many years to come, their 2020 rotation is very much an unknown. But guess what? Dombrowski knows this too and that is why the Red Sox have been so aggressive in drafting starting pitching: Jay Groome, Tanner Houck, Alex Scherff. B.Mata could be another piece to the puzzle. These guys will be ready around 2020, just when the Red Sox need them. I would expect Dombrowski to aggressively pursue starting pitching in the 2018 draft as well.
If the Red Sox organization can produce starting pitching, something they have struggled to do in recent years, there is no reason to rebuild in 2020. Instead, the Red Sox will go full speed ahead after another championship. The drafting and developing of starting pitching will be crucial to the process of sustaining success when the three year window is up.