The current common setup of one-inning relievers carries risks as well. The one-inning reliever may be pulled without recording an out if he doesn't have his "stuff." Likewise, a long reliever under similar circumstances may be pulled without recording an out but that must be weighed against the greater potential benefit of three innings of relief.
To me it all comes down to run-scoring stats across baseball. In recent years run-scoring was dropping and dropping, suggesting that pitching was dominating the game. It has gone back up again, and a lot of people including me are wondering if that's because the ball is juiced.
All but the rare reliever would be expected to go at least two or three innings.
Most MLB pitchers were starters who converted to relief at some point in their life, most often in professional ball. Their development would no longer shrink their expected appearances to a single inning.
I've been wondering about this trend too, one of starters pitching fewer and fewer innings with designated pitchers for the 7th, 8, and 9th. If this continues we could have starters going 5 innings to get the Win followed by four other pitchers each with a designated inning, and three other guys in the pen in case one of them fails that day.
The game is changin'. No doubt about it.
It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
-Vin Scully
Yeah, it has changed. But it isn't really changing radically. You would still like your starting pitcher to be able to go at least 6 innings. I don't think any manager gets excited about the idea of the starter being pulled after 5 and having to use the pen for 4 innings every game.
I'm not trying to be argumentative.. honest... but we 'old timers' can remember when it wasn't unusual for a pitcher to throw a complete game. Then we started having a designated "Closer". Now we're having someone designated to pitch the 8th, and even down into the 7th. Can the 6th be far behind, especially if a team has built a bullpen with that kind of depth.
Picture our starters going 5 innings, then a closing staff of Kelly for the 6th, Smith for the 7th, Thornburg for the 8th, and Kimbrel for the 9th. That would leave guys like Ross, Hembree, Abad, and Workman to fill in as needed for a partial inning or for long relief, with long relief defined as 'up until the 6th inning', or if a game got out of hand early.
Is that was DD was trying to accomplish?
It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
-Vin Scully