Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[S5Dewey]

[B]

Sure, it's possible we might have only lost 1-2 games as a result of mental mistakes, but I'm thinking 4-5 is on the light side.

That's a good, well researched post in spite of the fact that I slashed the bejeezus out of it to salvage the point I want to make.

I know I expressed my opinion on this early in the year but I still think that we minimize the value of "1 or 2 games". 1 or 2 games can (and probably will for some team) be the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf in October. That's why I like to stress the importance of playing smart baseball. If dumb baseball only cost us two games this year I'd like to have those two games back right now! At this typing those two games are the difference between a 3 1/2 game lead and a 4 1/2 game lead over the Y's.

[moonslav59]

I'm as baffled as anyone about the mental blunders. I think maybe you have to look at them on a player-by-player basis. I have seen Bogaerts make a couple that suggested his mind was elsewhere at the time. Those are the ones where the player really has to be straightened out by the manager.

JBJ has made some of the blunders. But when you look at how this guy plays in the outfield it's hard to believe that he suffers from a lack of focus.

Nobody can stay 100% focused 100% of the time. It's expected that everyone make a blunder here and there. Several Sox players have not had more than their "quota". Others have done much worse.

[moonslav59]

And yet you're telling Max not to make any claim that can't be proven!

You're contradicting the heck out of yourself, and it really diminishes your credibility.

Suggesting these mistakes have cost us 6 or 7 games is like saying they are the equivalent of having a replacement level pitcher this year instead of Sale.

I said, "I believe" it costs us games. How can dozens and dozens of blunders not cause runs to be given up? It's possible many runs can be given up and never cost a game, but the odds are stongly against that when you see the sheer magnitude of mental mistakes we've made.

I've said over and over, it is all conjecture. It seems to me, Max feels like he proved we could not have possibly lost that Yankees game with a change in one play. I've stated nothing can be proven.

I see a major difference in our claim presentations.

[moonslav59]

That's a good, well researched post in spite of the fact that I slashed the bejeezus out of it to salvage the point I want to make.

I know I expressed my opinion on this early in the year but I still think that we minimize the value of "1 or 2 games". 1 or 2 games can (and probably will for some team) be the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf in October. That's why I like to stress the importance of playing smart baseball. If dumb baseball only cost us two games this year I'd like to have those two games back right now! At this typing those two games are the difference between a 3 1/2 game lead and a 4 1/2 game lead over the Y's.

It very well could be just 1-2 games. I happen to feel it pretty much has to be more, but the exact number can never be proven. I think the odds are surely in favor of us losing 1-2 games instead of zero, and I strongly believe it's closer to 4 or 5 than zero or 1.

[Bellhorn04]

I said, "I believe" it costs us games. How can dozens and dozens of blunders not cause runs to be given up? It's possible many runs can be given up and never cost a game, but the odds are stongly against that when you see the sheer magnitude of mental mistakes we've made.

I've said over and over, it is all conjecture. It seems to me, Max feels like he proved we could not have possibly lost that Yankess game with a change in one play.

I see a major difference in our claim presentations.

Any suggestion that mental mistakes could have cost 6 or more games is outlandish. At least Max tried to use actual game information to substantiate his claim.

[Nick]

And yet you're telling Max not to make any claim that can't be proven!

You're contradicting the heck out of yourself, and it really diminishes your credibility.

Suggesting these mistakes have cost us 6 or 7 games is like saying they are the equivalent of having a replacement level pitcher this year instead of Sale.

I think it's difficult to quantify "games lost" unless it happens in last at bat as an example. Making a stupid running mistake in 2nd inning becomes an afterthought. It maybe that it was a factor but the team still had 7 innings to overcome the dumb play. No so much last at bat.

[cp176]

excellent post.

ty - It's da old coach in me. I used to use expressions like wins and losses take care of themselves. Whatever the hell that means. What it meant to me was that it was my job to prepare my team as well as they could be prepared for every game. Even though kids will still make mental mistakes, they are never acceptable. Doesn't matter how good or how valuable the player is who makes them - still unacceptable! You accept them long enough and you will suck. Got to take care of the little controllable things. it just seems as though this team makes too many little mental mistakes. Either they are stupid or there are in fact some coaching issues. I'm still enjoying the ride though.

[S5Dewey]

It very well could be just 1-2 games. I happen to feel it pretty much has to be more, but the exact number can never be proven. I think the odds are surely in favor of us losing 1-2 games instead of zero, and I strongly believe it's closer to 4 or 5 than zero or 1.

My interpretation of this post is that Moon believes we've run ourselves out of a substantial lead, and I agree with that.

[mvp 78]

I think it's difficult to quantify "games lost" unless it happens in last at bat as an example. Making a stupid running mistake in 2nd inning becomes an afterthought. It maybe that it was a factor but the team still had 7 innings to overcome the dumb play. No so much last at bat.

Then you can only blame the guy who made the final out for the loss.

Thanks for ruining '78 Yaz!

[S5Dewey]

I think it's difficult to quantify "games lost" unless it happens in last at bat as an example. Making a stupid running mistake in 2nd inning becomes an afterthought. It maybe that it was a factor but the team still had 7 innings to overcome the dumb play. No so much last at bat.

Aughh! I'm not buying that at all!! A missed opportunity is a missed opportunity no matter when it happens. We just tend to focus more on it when it happens at the end of the game.

As someone told me when I was just a young man, 'Never pass one up because you'll never get that chance again."

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody ever knows 'what would have happened if...'. I believe that the principle used in calculations like WAR is to give all plays equal weight regardless of the situation. Which makes sense. A run in the second inning counts just the same as a run in the ninth inning.

[Bellhorn04]

Then you can only blame the guy who made the final out for the loss.

Thanks for ruining '78 Yaz!

Yes, exactly. Even though Yaz had a home run and a single, 2 runs and 2 RBI prior to that.

[Spudboy]

Base running mistakes that take runs off the board change the dynamics of the game with regard to which pitchers each manager might be used etc. I agree with you that OOBs stat is not reliable. In fact, I would say that OObs is for boobs. And that is not a sexist term!

I agree.

[Spudboy]

In that game if we had put up an additional run an CC had to pitch to an additional batter in a stressful AB in that inning, the whole game could have changed.

Absolutely.

Contrary to the silly idea that baseball is such a random sport, cause and effect determines what happens.

Change the outcome of one play and the proceeding events may have been very different.

One has to be a fucking dope not to understand that idea.

[Spudboy]

Excuse me, but I didn't just analyze that one inning (the 3d). I also cited just 4 singles in the game and the total abortion of a 9th inning rally when the Sox had the bases loaded with no one out and got zero, repeat zero hits. We got the one run when I think Beni got walked. We were vastly outplayed in that game, top to bottom, and all the blather about mental mistakes won't change that fact. It was 6-2, not 2-1.

Is one game a valid sample size?

While I don't recall in which games I saw blunders that probably caused a loss of runs scored or enabled opponents to score more runs, they did, in fact happen.

Not in just one game, but many games.

That is the point. The Sox make a bunch of dumb ass plays.