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Thread: Porcello

  1. #46
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays shitty otherwise.
    Not true, in fact, it's a gross distortion of the facts.

    Here are his OPS by month since he became FT in AUG 2015:

    .596
    .596

    .651

    .731
    .739
    .770

    .805
    .807
    .808
    .839

    1.009
    1.163
    1.175

    Just because he as no .900 months does mean he has sucked every month, except the 3 over 1.000.

    He's had 5 between .770 and .840.

    That's 8 out of his last 13 months over .770.

    10 out of 13 over .730.

    (not counting SEPT '17, so one can project 8 out of 14 and 10 out 14.)


    I know the guy is in an awful slump, but let's not re-write history over it.


  2. #47
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Oh, it's damn true...

    JBJ is good for one great month per season.

    2015:
    5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS
    8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS
    9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

    2016:
    4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS
    5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS
    6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

    2017:
    April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669
    May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029
    July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598
    Last edited by mvp 78; 09-28-2017 at 10:09 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  3. #48
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Oh, it's damn true...

    JBJ is good for one great month per season.

    2015:
    5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS
    8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS
    9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

    2016:
    4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS
    5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS
    6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

    2017:
    April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669
    May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029
    July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598
    And the hot streaks are all smack dab in the middle...weird/amazing.

  4. #49
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    That Aug-Sep stretch in 2015 was Bonds-esque.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  5. #50
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    JBJ is basically a guy who gets molten hot for one month a year and then plays shitty otherwise.
    PLAYS?? Only if you don't count his GG caliber defense.

    It amazes me how many fans put all their emphasis on offense and totally ignore outstanding defense like it's a given. There are two ways to win a game. A team score runs or it can keep the other team from scoring runs. IMO they're equally important,
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  6. #51
    Legend SoxHop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    PLAYS?? Only if you don't count his GG caliber defense.

    It amazes me how many fans put all their emphasis on offense and totally ignore outstanding defense like it's a given. There are two ways to win a game. A team score runs or it can keep the other team from scoring runs. IMO they're equally important,
    This is WAR I tell you!!!

  7. #52
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoxHop View Post
    This is WAR I tell you!!!
    Exactly.

  8. #53
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    Right now Betts's WAR is 6.0, 2d best RF in AL, JBJ's 3.0, 7th best CF in AL, and Beni's 2.7, 3d best LF in AL.

    This year JBJ's OPS's were decent to great in May, June, and August, and awful in April, July, and September. His hitting has been off and on liek that virtually since he came into the Sox system. Sometimes he seems completely incapable of seeing the ball. Sometimes he just can't hit the ball squarely. He leads the team in K's with 122 in 471 at bats, almost exactly 1 in 4.

    His best OPS's are with runners on and RISP--.838 and .820-- and his worst are with the bases empty or when he leads off an inning--.640 and .697.

  9. #54
    #SurvivingFarrell Station 13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    He should be. It's one of the reasons I think the Sox can re-sign the B's. They aren't all $20M guys.
    Just Betts is worth $20M. Constant base 5WAR player.

  10. #55
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Oh, it's damn true...

    JBJ is good for one great month per season.

    2015:
    5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS
    8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS
    9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

    2016:
    4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS
    5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS
    6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

    2017:
    April - May 29th: BABIP 220 OPS 669
    May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029
    July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598
    The great part may be true, but my beef was over the "shitty" comment about the "rest of the season".

    .792 is actually pretty good, and .765 is decent. .669 and GG defense is good enough.

    That makes 3 of the remaining 6 time frames you listed as shitty.

    One could say, "he's great one month a year and then shitty for half of the rest of the year."

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The first game is October 5th. That's 3 days off after the last game of the season.

    Had we started Sale the first game in Cincy, we could have given him 1-2 days off before pitching a (short) game vs HOU and then 1-2 days off before game 1 on OCT 5th. Now, he's going to get a super long rest of lopsided rest.
    Sale's three best consecutive starts this season, all shutouts, were the first three games after the ASG and 9 days of rest. October 5 is 9 days after September 26. That too me is the best plan for Sale at this point, but it also means the Sox will have to win the AL East without him unless Farrell uses him in relief.

    Pitching Sale on 1-2 days rest is just nonsense to support a cockamammie theory. Aren't you one of those who have bought into the theory that Sale should have been pitching a lot less going back to August 1?

    If winning on October 1 guarantees the AL East which can't be won before that date, then maybe Sale does pitch on that day.

  12. #57
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Station 13 View Post
    Just Betts is worth $20M. Constant base 5WAR player.
    fangraphs value

    2015: $39.2M
    2016: $63.3M
    2017: $40.1M (so far)


  13. #58
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbialystock View Post
    Sale's three best consecutive starts this season, all shutouts, were the first three games after the ASG and 9 days of rest. October 5 is 9 days after September 26. That too me is the best plan for Sale at this point, but it also means the Sox will have to win the AL East without him unless Farrell uses him in relief.

    Pitching Sale on 1-2 days rest is just nonsense to support a cockamammie theory. Aren't you one of those who have bought into the theory that Sale should have been pitching a lot less going back to August 1?

    If winning on October 1 guarantees the AL East which can't be won before that date, then maybe Sale does pitch on that day.
    Good points, but I still wish we'd rested him more in September.

  14. #59
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The great part may be true, but my beef was over the "shitty" comment about the "rest of the season".

    .792 is actually pretty good, and .765 is decent. .669 and GG defense is good enough.

    That makes 3 of the remaining 6 time frames you listed as shitty.

    One could say, "he's great one month a year and then shitty for half of the rest of the year."
    JBJ is shitty shitty shit shit. His glove is good, but his bat is shit.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  15. #60
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    Back to Porcello. I hate that he can't seem to keep the ball low and relies too much on his fastball. My solution would be to extend his pregame warm-up for however long it takes for him to demonstrate he has command of all his pitches. If this shortens the number of innings he can pitch, so be it.

    The Sox only have 5 starters, so I think all 5 are still in the mix for the 4 needed. Sale is in for sure. Pom, Fister, and ERod all have a chance against Houston to prove they should make the cut, with Fister clearly the long shot. If he bombs tomorrow night, I think Porcello is #4. If he has a quality start, Farrell might have a tough decision on #4. Interestingly, I don't think either one would be good as a long reliever. That job belongs to Price anyway.

    I honestly don't see Pom or ERod dropping out of the rotation at this point. Pom has been decent to good all season. ERod has very good stuff and lately seems to have better command.

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