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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #4666
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Maybe, but this is some big time hindsight.

    No one could have foreseen Moustakas having to settle for that kind of a deal.

    I criticize Dombrowski for a lot of things, but IMO, he did a good job in signing both Moreland and JD.
    While Moustakas is a bargain, he had an additional cost for Boston in terms of draft pick compensation. If the Sox were going to give up picks, might as well go sign Cobb to a short deal instead and fill an actual need...

  2. #4667
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    While Moustakas is a bargain, he had an additional cost for Boston in terms of draft pick compensation. If the Sox were going to give up picks, might as well go sign Cobb to a short deal instead and fill an actual need...
    How much is that draft pick compensation worth? Certainly it has value, but Mosse was projected to make mega bucks, and he ended up with peanuts. If one counts the projection as valid, clearly the lost draft pick is not even close to the value disparity between what Moose signed for vs his projected value.

    Moreland is projected to be on the bench. Moose could have played 1B better than HRam (on O and D), or he could have played 3B, vastly improving our IF defense, with Devers playing DH/3B. With the JD money, we could have signed other bargain playeers, icluding a solid SP'er.

    Again, I'm not bashing DD for signing JD. I liked the signing. All I'm saying is that after all these bargain signings are competed, we may look back and say "what if?" Posters did this with Ben, and are still doing it years now- years later. I'm not sure why it should be out of bounds to just discuss the what ifs on this year's signings.

    Last edited by moonslav59; 03-11-2018 at 12:52 PM.

  3. #4668
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    He also had the overall #2, and then the overall #1 pick in the draft when he drafted those guys. There's a huge difference between draft with the first pick and drafting in the back of the first round.

    Also, I'd like to add that I think we as fans give too much credit to the G.M. for draft results. There are countless scouts, directors, and crosscheckers putting in thousands of hours within the organization that go into making these decisions. I'd actually be willing to be that after the first round pick, most G.M.s don't even make another pick
    Look at the history of the first round. Plenty of GM's have whiffed on high picks. i don't care where he drafted. Landing AGon, Beckett, and Miggy in a 2year period is building a great foundation for a team.
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  4. #4669
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    Cora thinks Castillo can play at the major league level. His problem is the contract he signed makes him too expensive for the Sox and probably too expensive (in terms of luxury tax cap) for any other team. It is crazy that the agreements made between the players union and owners result in situations where a capable player can get sidelined just because of financial considerations.
    If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  5. #4670
    I swear if The Phillies land Arietta for anything less than 3 for 39 I'm pissed off .Talk about leaving the golfball hanging on the edge of the cup .....just knock it in Dave and let's make a real run at a World Series Title .
    Last edited by Natick to NC; 03-11-2018 at 01:39 PM.

  6. #4671
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA
    ehh.

    If you have the #1 pick in the entire draft it's because your team sucks. He had the #1 pick overall and #2 overall. It's pretty freaking hard to mess up those picks in any sport.

    After that, he doesn't really have a great record of drafting, it's not horrible but it's very meh.

  7. #4672
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    ehh.

    If you have the #1 pick in the entire draft it's because your team sucks. He had the #1 pick overall and #2 overall. It's pretty freaking hard to mess up those picks in any sport.

    After that, he doesn't really have a great record of drafting, it's not horrible but it's very meh.
    Checkout the 2006 first round.
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  8. #4673
    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Checkout the 2006 first round.
    Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

    And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

    Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

    So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

    Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.

  9. #4674
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

    And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

    Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

    So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

    Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.
    I am just saying that GM's blow top picks. i am not relying on one year anecdotally. i am also not giving DD great pats on the back for nailing the #1 and 2 picks, but he did nail it and every other GM had a shot at Miggy too as an amateur FA and he nailed that too. When he had the high picks, he rebuilt his organization in 2 years. Ben shit the bed in 2013 with Trey ball. In years when DD didn't have high picks like that, he turned them into Scherzer and Miggy. The GM job over-matched Ben who was a very poor leader.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  10. #4675
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh View Post
    Oh, that's your argument? One year as an anecdotal remedy that the #2 pick overall can suck? I can find you #1 overall picks that suck. It's blatantly obvious you're picking from a much richer pool of talent at the top of the draft and the rate of success is astronomically higher with the first two picks.

    And if that's your anecdote, then let's look at that draft. DD is addicted to drafting polished college pitchers, honestly look at his history he takes a ton of college pitchers in the first round. So he opts to draft Andrew miller over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and and Max Scherzer.

    Perhaps another reason you used this year was that there was much better talent in 7-11 range then there was between the 1-6 range. But this too is another anecdote. I've looked at the draft, I've looked at every pick in the top couple rounds many times over for the past 30 years. This was an anamoly, the talent at the top of the draft is almost always better than the rest. There's always a valuable player or two at the end of the first round or the rest of the draft most years and a team gets lucky with a Mike Trout but your chances of drafting premium talent increase ten fold when you have the #1 overall pick or the #2 overall pick in the draft.

    So I'll say it again...you take away those first two picks DD had (because the teams sucked) and how is his drafting record when he's picked in the back of the first round? It's not as good as the cumulative record of Theo and Ben picking there, not even close.

    Dave Dambrowski is really good at trading, but that seems to be it.
    I am not comparing DD to Theo who clearly knows how to build a team in all aspects including pitching. Ben could never figure out how to draft or build pitching. Ben just doesn't cut it as a GM. He blew his shot in spectacular fashion. He managed to finish last 3 times while choking the budget for years after his departure with huge FA busts, and he left the organization completely bereft of pitching. His record and legacy is indefensible.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  11. #4676
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    If he was the hot talent that Ben thought he had signed, $9 million/year shouldn't make every other team blink. i am sure that the Red Sox would eat a potion of it. He is just not that good -- AAAA
    He's not a star, and possibly not worth his salary, But there are certainly worse outfielders suiting up in MLB. But a combination of Castillo's contract, the Sox payroll, and his performance and injury history will keep him in the minors. ..

  12. #4677
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    He's not a star, and possibly not worth his salary, But there are certainly worse outfielders suiting up in MLB. But a combination of Castillo's contract, the Sox payroll, and his performance and injury history will keep him in the minors. ..
    He’s not good enough to start in the majors. That is why he is still in the minors. He is at best a 4th OF in the majors. That is why he is stuck in the minors. If a team thought they could pencil him in as a starter, they would have dealt him and eaten some of the contract. $4-5 million is a reasonable price for a starting OFer, but there isn’t a team that thinks he could hold down a starting job.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  13. #4678
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    I am not comparing DD to Theo who clearly knows how to build a team in all aspects including pitching. Ben could never figure out how to draft or build pitching. Ben just doesn't cut it as a GM. He blew his shot in spectacular fashion. He managed to finish last 3 times while choking the budget for years after his departure with huge FA busts, and he left the organization completely bereft of pitching. His record and legacy is indefensible.
    Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months. And another last place finish was the fire sale team of 2012.

    Really 2014 is the indefensible one. But even then he returned a roster largely intact from a World Series champion.

    His failures were more related to his transactions. Sandoval was a bad call any way you look at it. Ramirez looked like a bargain but didn't work out. The early struggles of Bradley probably influenced him to sign Castillo, who is mired in AAA purgatory. The unorthodox Lester and Lackey trades did nothing to build the future. And he never dealt any prospects, which teams need to do tp stay competitive.

    The whole"last place the times" thing is an oversimplification. He also had a fire sale and won a title 14 months later, which is really impressive no matter how you look at it. ...

  14. #4679
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months.
    notin, no offense, but what the hell are you talking about?

  15. #4680
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well one of those last place finIshes was when the team basically quit on him. They were in first into September. Is that really the GM who's at fault? The team was more than competitive for five months. And another last place finish was the fire sale team of 2012.
    You have made a fundamental mistake with the facts that invalidates your entire argument.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

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