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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #991
    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    If a team built with Betts, Benintendi, Devers and a ginormous pile of money cannot keep a contender going - then somebody is doing it wrong. Nobody argues that decisions have to be made - I am certainly not arguing keeping this team together until Bradley is 37. But letting 27-28 year old Top 20 players walk on principle is not what fans should have to expect. If you are defining a cliff by "oh bother, look at all these decisions - I guess we'll be a 70 win team in 2021" - then that doesn't make any sense.
    Oh, we can keep quite a few of these guys, but the budget will be so high that we will need a lot of infusion of young talent from the farm to fill out the rest of the roster with better than replacement level players..

  2. #992
    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.
    My problem is, why is there even a window to begin with? The farm system should provide a revolving door of players ready to step in when others leave for free agency, not something to be depleted in one fell swoop, thereby creating a window.

    That said, I completely agree that things could change in 2-3 years.

  3. #993
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    My problem is, why is there even a window to begin with? The farm system should provide a revolving door of players ready to step in when others leave for free agency, not something to be depleted in one fell swoop, thereby creating a window.

    That said, I completely agree that things could change in 2-3 years.
    Agreed, but we did have a surplus and not enough roster slots for all of them. We should have made one or maybe two big deals but not 3 going on 4.


  4. #994
    Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?

  5. #995
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?
    Next year is year 2 of the 3-4 year window. When they were traded, just about all of the guys we traded were not expected to be in significant factors in MLB by next year, except maybe Moncada & Margot.

    That being said, Moncada would probably start at 2B this year, and Margot would be a solid 4th Of'er and starting DH until HRam is back, assuming no signings or further trades. Maybe Dubon could win the 2B job next spring.

    Many want us to sign JD or trade for Stanton- both OF'ers. Others want us to trade or sign a 2Bman this winter.

    The point is, nobody expected help from these guys in 2017. Even Devers came up faster than expected. Kopech might be getting close. Espi and Basabe and others were always viewed as farther away.

    .

  6. #996
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?
    Shaw would be your 1b. Moncada would be starting at 2b with Pedroia down. Margot would make Bradley expendable for a trade. Kopech would probably make your rotation out of ST with ERod on the shelf and with the tenuous elbow of Price
    The rebuild is complete.

  7. #997
    Dustin Pedroia is under contract through 2021. That spot is blocked. What are you going to do with Pedey? Bench him? Moncada was playing 3B when traded. He became expendable because of Devers. Shaw was traded because Sox management thought he was inadequate at 3B. DD loves Bradley.

    I would take Sale over Kopech right now. If Kopech was with Sox, we don't have Sale.

  8. #998
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Dustin Pedroia is under contract through 2021. That spot is blocked. What are you going to do with Pedey? Bench him? Moncada was playing 3B when traded. He became expendable because of Devers. Shaw was traded because Sox management thought he was inadequate at 3B. DD loves Bradley.

    I would take Sale over Kopech right now. If Kopech was with Sox, we don't have Sale.
    You asked who would start.

    Pedey is out- maybe for the whole year. Clearly Moncada would be a better choice than Holt or Hernandez. Dubon might give both a run for their money, too.

    If we did not trade Kopech for sale, Kopech would be looking to win one of two slots opened by ERod's injury and the theoretical take back of the trade for Sale. Margot would not beat out JBJ, but he'd be a better choice than HRam at DH, and we really need a 4th OF'er. He could easily get 550+ PAs for the Sox next year

    If we took back all the trades, we'd have Shaw at 1B, Moncada or Dubon at 2B, Margot at DH/4th OF and Kopech as a strong candidate for 5th starter. Many of these kids were not expected to be significant ML player in 2018, but they probably would have been had we kept them.

    (BTW, I wasn't even for keeping them all. Kimmi has stated she felt ben would have made a big deal, too- just not 4.)

  9. #999
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?
    I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

    I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

    If we took back the trades, the Red Sox wouldn't have Sale or Kimbrel and thus wouldn't make the playoffs in 2017, BUT they would be eminently stronger going into the future with a power bat at 2b (Moncada), a potential dominant ace in the rotation (Kopech), a quality young OF in Margot, and Travis Shaw at 1b. This is why I believe Dombrowski will be remembered pretty much as a disgrace in Red Sox history. Henry will probably fire him in a few years when he begins to see how bad some of Dombrowski's trades were for the organization.

    I don't know how much longer Pedroia can play 2b. Perhaps he will spend one or two years as a DH. He is at an age when a player's defense typically declines and the injury will likely expedite that process. If Pedroia is going to hurt the Red Sox's infield defense over the next few years, it won't make sense to trot him out there--DH would be a better spot.
    Last edited by Fan_since_Boggs; 11-05-2017 at 10:02 PM.

  10. #1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

    I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

    If we took back the trades, the Red Sox wouldn't have Sale or Kimbrel and thus probably wouldn't make the playoffs in 2017, BUT they would be eminently stronger going into the future with a power bat at 2b (Moncada), a potential dominant ace in the rotation (Kopech), and a quality young OF in Margot.

    I don't know how much longer Pedroia can play 2b. Perhaps he will spend one or two years as a DH. He is at an age when a player's defense typically declines and the injury will likely expedite that process. If Pedroia is going to hurt the Red Sox's infield defense over the next few years, it won't make sense to trot him out there--DH would be a better spot.
    So all of you are saying we'd just eat Dustin's $57M left in his contract? well, okay then.

  11. #1001
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

    I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.
    Margot was expendable, but he just turned 23 and has 5 more years of team control. That runs far beyond the "window."

    There's also still a good chance someone from the others (Espi, Dubon, Basabe, Allen, Asuaje and more) will end up being meaningful contributors at the ML level.

  12. #1002
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    So all of you are saying we'd just eat Dustin's $57M left in his contract? well, okay then.
    He may miss all of 2018 and return as a DH. He may fight his way back, and I think he will.

    Either way, Moncada would start for us next year at 2B and/or DH and be our DH in 2019 and beyond.

    Would you rather have Holt?

  13. #1003
    Margot was more expendable than Moncada and Kopech. If Dombrowki can find another way to get a closer, it is possible that Margot could have been included in the White Sox deal for Sale, allowing the Red Sox to keep either Moncada or Kopech.

    In trading all of this talent, Dombrowski decided to play a game of high risk poker. If he doesn't win a World Series over the next few seasons, he will look like a total fool.

  14. #1004
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He may miss all of 2018 and return as a DH. He may fight his way back, and I think he will.

    Either way, Moncada would start for us next year at 2B and/or DH and be our DH in 2019 and beyond.

    Would you rather have Holt?
    Again, but then we don't have Sale and we don't win last year. We also don't have Kimbrel. We also don't have Pom.

    What would our 25 man roster look like? Sale, Kimbrel, Pom combined cost us $40M. I suppose we could buy couple of good players with that money.

    c no change
    1B Shaw
    2B Moncada
    SS Xander
    3B Devers
    LF Beni
    CF Bradley Jr
    RF Betts

    SP Price
    SP Porcello
    SP E Rod
    SP Wright
    SP Johnson

    I suppose if we were willing not to win the Division last two years, then 2018 could have been better.

    It's Henry's fault for hiring DD.

    Kimmi may have the right idea. Stand pat and let contracts for Hanley, Sadoval and Porcello expire. Use that money to extend Betts and Sale.
    Last edited by Nick; 11-05-2017 at 10:26 PM.

  15. #1005
    I'm calling massive bullshit talk about Moncada and his value to our team going forward. I was and still am a big Moncada fan. He still might be the one. There are extremely few people posting here who saw any value in keeping Moncada and it had nothing to do with any concept of someone being inured in the future. This board almost to a person felt that he was and probably still is an over rated prospect. A virtual K machine who wasn't going to help us at all. A Yankee fan tells you all how good he could be and all of a sudden it makes people start second guessing trading him for Chris Sale. Interesting!

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