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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #1126
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I think DD may do that too (or at least sign some starter). Too many questions concerning the health of Price and ERod. No clue on what Wright can provide. Porcello may just be a 4th starter. What if Pom's 2017 was a fluke? Etc.
    Really the only question is Price.

    ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.

    And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..

  2. #1127
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Really the only question is Price.

    ERod is out for a while. Porcello probably is a 3-4 starter. Pomeranz was equally good in 2016 as he was in 2017.

    And none of these guys is as big of a question mark as Cueto. ..
    i think Price is going to be really solid next season.
    i also think cueto would thrive in the Boston environment.
    but i also believe that players can raise (and lower) their efforts/abilities/desire/focus based on the situation they are in......
    other names i have posted under: none

  3. #1128
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    About the Marlins eating any of Stanton's contract. I kind of doubt that they would want another big contract back to offset and I don't think they will swallow any of Stanton's deal either.

    The Statue has clearly said that the Marlins must get down to 90 mil so they need to shed 40 mil.

    It would be almost impossible to reach 90 mil without shedding the entire Stanton contract.

    Of course Jetter could have his head up his ass.

    Who knows?
    They were talking about trading Stanton plus one or two from Gordon or Prado. If that's the case, then they can pay part of Stanton's deal, but I doubt it will be much.

    I think the fact that the Sox can pay his full salary and the luxury tax is "just" $25M gives us a leg up on many teams with better prospects to trade.

  4. #1129
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Cueto is owed like $92million over the next 4 seasons and is coming off a season where he had a 4.52ERA in a National League pitcher's park. No way he opts out and no way is he worth trading for. The Sox shouldn't even trade Rusney Castillo for him straight up. ...
    I think he already announced he's not opting out.

    I don't think 2017 is all we should look sat with Cueto, but certainly, it's concerning.

  5. #1130
    Just throwing something out here...

    Trade:
    HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit
    Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit
    Chavis (prospect)
    JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018)
    Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M

    For:
    Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit
    Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit
    Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M

    We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter.

    Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates.

    We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue.

    1. Bogey SS
    2. Betts RF
    3. Martinez LF/DH
    4. Cruz DH/LF
    5. Beni CF
    6. Santana 1B
    7. Devers 3B
    8. Pedey 2B
    9. Vaz C

    (I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)



  6. #1131
    Projected arb salaries:

    Joe Kelly $3.6MM
    Drew Pomeranz $9.1MM
    Tyler Thornburg $2.1MM
    Brock Holt $2.0MM
    Xander Bogaerts $7.6MM
    Jackie Bradley $5.9MM
    Sandy Leon $2.1MM
    Steven Wright $1.2MM
    Mookie Betts $8.2MM
    Brandon Workman $900K
    Christian Vazquez $1.5MM
    Carson Smith $1.1MM
    Eduardo Rodriguez $2.7MM


  7. #1132
    Holt got 1.95 this past year, I think he'll get more than that.

  8. #1133
    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    Holt got 1.95 this past year, I think he'll get more than that.
    I'm not sure. He had a .548 OPS and missed a lot of time.

    I get the fact that the next arb year means an auto raise, but if ever there was a player that did not deserve one based on previous year performance, it would be Brock.

    I'm thinking at $2M, we might want to trade him, but with Pedey out and no 4th OF'er at the moment, I'd hold off.

  9. #1134
    I think they go one-year at a time with Bradley and Rodriguez ... try to get a 6 year extension for a reasonable amount ($150M would be reasonable) for Betts ... Bogaerts season (and how much of it was injury related) almost forces the Red Sox to just make a deal for next year.

    Explore a short pre-arb extension with Pomeranz although I am not that moved either direction

  10. #1135
    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    I think they go one-year at a time with Bradley and Rodriguez ... try to get a 6 year extension for a reasonable amount ($150M would be reasonable) for Betts ... Bogaerts season (and how much of it was injury related) almost forces the Red Sox to just make a deal for next year.

    Explore a short pre-arb extension with Pomeranz although I am not that moved either direction
    One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax.

    It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.

  11. #1136
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Just throwing something out here...

    Trade:
    HRam (18:$22M, 19:$22M vesting option) $22M luxury tax hit
    Porcello (18:$21M, 19:$21M) $20.6M luxury tax hit
    Chavis (prospect)
    JBJ ($5.9M arb projection with 2 more to go after 2018)
    Total 2018 luxury tax hit: $48.5M

    For:
    Felix Hernandez (18:$26M, 19:$27M, 20:$1M conditional club option) $25M luxury tax hit
    Nelson Cruz (18:$14M) $143.M luxury tax hit
    Total Luxury Tax Hit: $39M

    We gain $9.5M on our 2018 spending budget and get our clean-up hitter.

    Seattle gets 3 years of JBJ and a cheaper SP'er in Porcello over Felix. They also get a power-hitting prospect. The drop off from Cruz to HRam might be the deal buster, so I guess it depends on how much they like JBJ at arb salary rates.

    We could use the money to go out and sign JD to DH or trade for Stanton to DH PLUS sign Santana or Moose to solve the 1B issue.

    1. Bogey SS
    2. Betts RF
    3. Martinez LF/DH
    4. Cruz DH/LF
    5. Beni CF
    6. Santana 1B
    7. Devers 3B
    8. Pedey 2B
    9. Vaz C

    (I'llk wait for harmony to shoot me down hard.)


    That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.

    Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar same-duration extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and again in 2013.

    The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.

    Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.

    In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.

    Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.

    The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.

    I've probably written too much already.
    Last edited by harmony; 11-10-2017 at 04:10 PM.

  12. #1137
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    That's an interesting proposal but I doubt the Mariners will trade their two most popular players.

    Granted, the Felix Hernandez contract is underwater with $53 million remaining over two years after the 31-year-old righthander posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.3 million, over the last two seasons. Seattle fans can pray for a Verlander-type renaissance but Steamer projects Hernandez with a modest 2018 WAR of 2.0 in 28 starts. Justin Verlander, who is three years older and who now has more MLB innings, has been a convenient comp since the righthanders signed similar extensions within weeks of each other in 2010 and 2013.

    The Seattle front office hopes to reward the iconic Hernandez for his loyalty with a postseason appearance by the Mariners. But this is the same franchise that traded away Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro and Randy Johnson.

    Only Nelson Cruz rivals Hernandez for a presence in the Seattle clubhouse.

    In the final months of 2014, Seattle signed Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract while Boston signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year at $22 million. In the ensuing three seasons Cruz has posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, while Ramirez has posted 0.6 fWAR, valued at $3.3 million. Streamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Cruz and 1.0 for Ramirez.

    Indeed the drop-off would be among the deal-breakers.

    The window may be closing for Seattle so Cruz will likely remain a Mariner in 2018. The M's may well have an interest in Jackie Bradley Jr. (and even Rick Porcello) but not at that price.

    I've probably written too much already.
    They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

    I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

    I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.

  13. #1138
    I don't have any idea how they will work out the particulars, but I will be very surprised if the hard play isn't for Martinez. Just read Bradford's article and sounds to me as though he would be just what the doctor ordered. Sign him and then figure out what to do with him as well as the others. I am not sold at all on Benintendi moving to center and trading Bradley but who knows. You want good people in that dugout. After what happened last year, we need real people who actually get it in there.

  14. #1139
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

    I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

    I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.
    I doubt the Mariners have any interest in Michael Chavis, a 22-year-old fringe prospect with a 25.3 % strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in a minor league career that has yet to reach Triple A. In July the Mariners traded away their same-age, strikeout-prone, righthand-hitting slugger in outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, who is ranked higher than Chavis on the MLB.com prospect list:

    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
    Last edited by harmony; 11-10-2017 at 01:13 PM.

  15. #1140
    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    I don't have any idea how they will work out the particulars, but I will be very surprised if the hard play isn't for Martinez. Just read Bradford's article and sounds to me as though he would be just what the doctor ordered. Sign him and then figure out what to do with him as well as the others. I am not sold at all on Benintendi moving to center and trading Bradley but who knows. You want good people in that dugout. After what happened last year, we need real people who actually get it in there.
    They are saying HRam will be good to go at 1B, so JD could DH and be our 4th OF'er. It's actually a nice fit, as long as HRam can play 1B.

    I still might give JD some reps at 1B- just in case. He might also play there in NL parks, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.

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