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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #1291
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The one thing that might drop free agent prices this year is the anticipation of next year's class and the number of normally big spenders trying to get under the luxury tax limit this year...
    ...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

    Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

    1Bmen Free Agents
    Yonder Alonso
    Lucas Duda
    Eric Hosmer
    John Jaso
    Adam Lind *
    Mitch Moreland
    Logan Morrison
    Mike Napoli
    Mark Reynolds
    Carlos Santana


  2. #1292
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

    Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

    1Bmen Free Agents
    Yonder Alonso
    Lucas Duda
    Eric Hosmer
    John Jaso
    Adam Lind *
    Mitch Moreland
    Logan Morrison
    Mike Napoli
    Mark Reynolds
    Carlos Santana

    Based on the age of those players, the relative performance (both offensive and defensive) and the cost and length of contracts, I would favor Carlos Santana. The trouble is getting him.

  3. #1293
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?

    Since the Sox could sign a 3Bman and move Devers to 1B or DH, we have even more players to choose from.

    1Bmen Free Agents
    Yonder Alonso
    Lucas Duda
    Eric Hosmer
    John Jaso
    Adam Lind *
    Mitch Moreland
    Logan Morrison
    Mike Napoli
    Mark Reynolds
    Carlos Santana

    Many of the 2017 teams of the listed players are in the market for a replacement at first base.

  4. #1294
    In my mind, I am ok going into next season with Travis as 1/2 of a platoon situation at first base, as long as whoever we sign has some power and allows us to have a lefty - righty platoon at the plate.

  5. #1295
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Last offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted a four-year, $92 million contract for Edwin Encarnacion:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/...edictions.html

    Encarnacion reportedly turned down an early four-year, $80 million offer from the Blue Jays before signing the three-year. $60 million contract with the Indians (with a club option for a fourth year).

    This offseason MLB Trade Rumors predict J.D. Martinez at six years and $150 million, Eric Hosmer at six years and $132 million, and Carlos Santana at three years and $45 million:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...edictions.html
    The predictions for Martinez, Hosmer, and Santana sound reasonable, IMO. Not that I'd give either Martinez or Hosmer a 6 year deal, but they sound reasonable in terms of what teams would be willing to sign those players for.

    As I said in the other thread, if signing Martinez is going to take more than 5 years, I would prefer Santana for 3 years. I've heard some speculation on Santana getting 5 years, which would be a definite deal breaker for me.

  6. #1296
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ...and, how many teams really need a 1Bman?



    Quite a few.

    Count the number of first basemen in the market and there's your rough answer. They all vacated somewhere...

  7. #1297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    In my mind, I am ok going into next season with Travis as 1/2 of a platoon situation at first base, as long as whoever we sign has some power and allows us to have a lefty - righty platoon at the plate.

    Travis is a worse option than Swihart. ...

  8. #1298
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Quite a few.

    Count the number of first basemen in the market and there's your rough answer. They all vacated somewhere...
    Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

    My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

    The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

    That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

    Am I missing something? (Someone?)

  9. #1299
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Travis is a worse option than Swihart. ...
    Hard to know, but neither is anyone we should count on in an important role.

    One may end up winning a key role, but they will not be handed one over this winter.


  10. #1300
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    The Mariners made yet another trade: this time they help the Yanks clear a roster spot for a rule 5 player to be protected. Seattle acquired Nick Rumeblow.

    According to MLBTR, the Rays are looking to rebuild and might be open to trade all their biggest contracts, including Longoria & Archer. Look at Archer's Luxury tax cost...

    Rays Contracts

    $94M/6 Longoria (Luxury: $16.7M)

    $33.75M/4 Archer (Luxury: $4.25M)

    Arbitrations Estimates:

    Odorizzi $7M (2nd or 3)
    Dickerson $6.5M (2nd of 3)
    Hechavarria $5M (3rd of 3)
    B Miller $5M (2nd of 3)
    S Souza $4M (1st of 3)

    Lot's of players to drool over, but how realistic is it for the Sox to have the prospects needed to land one from a divisional rival?




    Last edited by moonslav59; 11-19-2017 at 12:22 AM.

  11. #1301
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

    My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

    The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

    That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

    Am I missing something? (Someone?)
    The Red Sox might sign Adam Lind.

  12. #1302
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    The Red Sox might sign Adam Lind.
    LOL, yes, if we also sign JD Martinez.

  13. #1303
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Cleveland might go with EE and/or Chisenhall.

    My guess is KC gets Morrison or Moreland, and TB gets Duda.

    The A's will not sign a 1Bman and Seattle has the A's 1Bman for next year. Maybe Reynolds returns to COL.

    That leaves Hosmer, Santana and Alonso with Texas and the Sox as the biggest bidders out there.

    Am I missing something? (Someone?)

    Oakland is actually fairly likely to sign a 1B, just not a pricey one. Cleveland could go either way, but are not so likely to cheap out the way you predict.

    Also don't leave out the Mets and the Angels to the list of suitors (and non-tender candidate CJ Cron to the list of available free agents)...

  14. #1304
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Oakland is actually fairly likely to sign a 1B, just not a pricey one. Cleveland could go either way, but are not so likely to cheap out the way you predict.

    Also don't leave out the Mets and the Angels to the list of suitors (and non-tender candidate CJ Cron to the list of available free agents)...
    MLBTR reported that the A's may go with Matt Chapman or Matt Olson at 1B and use Khris Davis at DH. Yes, they might sign an Adam Lind or Lucas Duda type.

    The Indians may go somewhat large at 1B, but there seems to be enough or more than enough for all the "big players."

    Look at last year's signings at 1B or 1B/DH:

    $60M/3 Encarnacion
    $37.5M/3 Trumbo
    $8.5M/1 Napoli
    $15M/2 Valbuena
    $12.5M/2 Pearce
    $12M/2 B Moss
    $5.5M Moreland
    $16M/3 E Thames
    $3.5M/1 Chris Carter
    $12.9M/4 Dae-ho Lee
    $2.5M/1 Morrison
    $1.5M/1 A Lind


  15. #1305
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    MLBTR reported that the A's may go with Matt Chapman or Matt Olson at 1B and use Khris Davis at DH. Yes, they might sign an Adam Lind or Lucas Duda type.

    The Indians may go somewhat large at 1B, but there seems to be enough or more than enough for all the "big players."

    Look at last year's signings at 1B or 1B/DH:

    $60M/3 Encarnacion
    $37.5M/3 Trumbo
    $8.5M/1 Napoli
    $15M/2 Valbuena
    $12.5M/2 Pearce
    $12M/2 B Moss
    $5.5M Moreland
    $16M/3 E Thames
    $3.5M/1 Chris Carter
    $12.9M/4 Dae-ho Lee
    $2.5M/1 Morrison
    $1.5M/1 A Lind

    Interesting article up today that has both Holt and Leon being moved in some way. Swihart may get a chance as backup to Vazquez. Brentz as our 4th outfielder with a 5th being someone with a special talent like Maybin or santanfor their baserunning. The article postulates getting Kim from Baltimore as a backup player and going with Henrnadez while Pedroia is out. Do we go with Duda or Santana at first? The article is posted under red sox news.

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