A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

The 40 Man Roster:
Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost):
Young $6.5M
Moreland $5.5M
Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)
Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)
Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)
Abad $2.0M
Fister $1.8M
Boyer $0.6M
Total: ~$22M

The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost):
[37 non-free agents on roster]
$31.0M Price
$22.0M HRam
$20.6M Porcello
($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget)
$13.8M Pedroia
$12.0M Kimbrel
($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget)
$11.5M Sale (option)
Total Under Contract: ~$131M

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)
~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3)
~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3)
~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3)
~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4)
~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3)
~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4)
~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3)
~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4)
~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3)
~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3)
~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3)
~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3)
~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3)
~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4)
$52.2M in arbs

Pre-arbs:
Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists)
Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M

Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted):
$188M +13M Player benefits= $201M

Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M

Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings.

Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark.

Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss):
Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract):
Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter.
The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate.

Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots.

1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso
3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar
SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
2B/DH/IF: Nunez
DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson
SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn

Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B.

Let the debates begin...