A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

So Stanton is too expensive?

Holt will be back and I don't see the Sox fucking up a pretty good catching tandem.

No, by himself he is not.

We can easily afford $25M, but if we trade Beni and Bogey, we'll need a SS and still a DH and/or 1Bman. I'm not sure we can afford Stanton's $25M plus what it will cost to fill the holes we have and the new holes created when trading for him.

I'd love to find a way to get him without creating new problems elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

Who the fuck expects 30-40 HR from a 1st baseman anymore? How many teams get that production from 1st base?

Are you serious?

1) Who expects it? Me. And, you should, too. We finished last in HRs and have an opening at 1B; where else are we going to get a major increase in HRs other than 1B? (Yes, Stanton jumps to mind, but finding a power hitting 1Bman should be less costly- both in terms of money and players lost in trade. JD Martinez may get us 40.)

2) 12 teams had 35 or more HRs from the 1B position this year, and 19 had 30 or more. That's 2/3rds who not only expected it but got it.

3) Only 4 teams had less HRs than Boston's 1Bmen (25), and it blows my mind how many posters want Moreland back again.

4) Even adding 20 HRs at 1B will probably not be enough. Yes, adding 40 to LF alone would have moved us up from 27th in HRs to 16th this year, but we likely need to add 20-30+ HRs at 2 positions.

[moonslav59]

How many teams did not get 30 from their 1st baseman?

19

23 got 27 or more.

Only 4 had less HRs than Boston's 25.

[Nick]

Go big or go home.

You can always add supporting players to anchors, such as Stanton or Votto. What you can't do is keep adding supporting talent to mediocre group and expect great results. Yes, our offense right now is mediocre.

Do we wait another year to confirm what we know to be true? Our offense sucks. No power in power league?

[Maxbialystock]

Are you serious?

1) Who expects it? Me. And, you should, too. We finished last in HRs and have an opening at 1B; where else are we going to get a major increase in HRs other than 1B? (Yes, Stanton jumps to mind, but finding a power hitting 1Bman should be less costly- both in terms of money and players lost in trade. JD Martinez may get us 40.)

2) 12 teams had 35 or more HRs from the 1B position this year, and 19 had 30 or more. That's 2/3rds who not only expected it but got it.

3) Only 4 teams had less HRs than Boston's 1Bmen (25), and it blows my mind how many posters want Moreland back again.

4) Even adding 20 HRs at 1B will probably not be enough. Yes, adding 40 to LF alone would have moved us up from 27th in HRs to 16th this year, but we likely need to add 20-30+ HRs at 2 positions.

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Indians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

[Nick]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Indians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

You play to win the World Series. Not to be the next Atlanta Braves.

[moonslav59]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

My numbeers come straight from baseball reference. I'm talking positional HRs and our 1B position sucked in the rankings (27th). Our biggest need is HRs. 1B is an HR position. Status quo at 1B is not a viable option.


You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid.

I disagree. Henry reset the luxury tax, IMO, just so he could go way over the next 2 years (to finish out "the window").


So here is my view of things--

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland.

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Indians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

I agree, we will get better, even with no additional improvements made. I can't see 7 of our 8 top returning 2016 positional players declining for 3 straight years.

We will spend this winter, and it should not be for Moreland.

We need a big power boost, and most likely from more than one position. Staying even at 1B makes it nearly impossible to gain enough elsewhere, without trading for Stanton- which would likely subtract from 2-3 other positions thereby lessening his positive impact with his power.

To me, slightly improving power at 1B (HRam-Duda platoon) and DH with JD Martinez or a Mostakas- JD signing with Devers moved to 1B makes the most sense.

[illinoisredsox]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Indians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

Max, he's talking team totals. In the case of the Red Sox, Moreland hit 21 as a first baseman this season (plus 1 pinch hit homer), Hanley hit 4 (plus 19 as a DH).

[illinoisredsox]

You play to win the World Series. Not to be the next Atlanta Braves.

And even though they only won it once, those Braves got there 5 times in 9 seasons.

[moonslav59]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

I was talking team HRs, but Moreland still finished 26th in individual HRs by players who played some 1B last year.

Individual HRs by players who played some 1B last year:
'
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=5,d

[Maxbialystock]

The 40 Man Roster:
Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost):
Young $6.5M
Moreland $5.5M
Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)
Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)
Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)
Abad $2.0M
Fister $1.8M
Boyer $0.6M
Total: ~$22M

The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost):
[37 non-free agents on roster]
$31.0M Price
$22.0M HRam
$20.6M Porcello
($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget)
$13.8M Pedroia
$12.0M Kimbrel
($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget)
$11.5M Sale (option)
Total Under Contract: ~$131M

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)
~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3)
~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3)
~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3)
~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4)
~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3)
~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4)
~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3)
~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4)
~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3)
~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3)
~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3)
~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3)
~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3)
~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender?
~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4)
$52.2M in arbs

Pre-arbs:
Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists)
Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M

Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted):
$188M +13M Player benefits= $201M

Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M

Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings.

Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark.

Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss):
Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract):
Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter.
The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate.

Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots.

1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso
3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar
SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
2B/DH/IF: Nunez
DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson
SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn

Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B.

Let the debates begin...

This, I have to say one more time, is one of the reason why I think you are one great poster. We can agree to disagree on a whole bunch of stuff, but you have it all over me on assembling stats and numbers. In a NY Times review of Rick Atkinson's brilliant 3d book of his trilogy on the US Army in World War II--this volume is called Guns At Last Light--his narrative style was compared to a pointillist artist who uses many small facts and insights to create a larger tapestry that tells a compelling story. You do something like that when you produce these gems.

[jacksonianmarch]

The lux tax for 2018 is $197 mil. It was $195 this year and the last numbers I saw for the sox for 2017 shows they exceeded that by $4 mil.

[moonslav59]

This, I have to say one more time, is one of the reason why I think you are one great poster. We can agree to disagree on a whole bunch of stuff, but you have it all over me on assembling stats and numbers. In a NY Times review of Rick Atkinson's brilliant 3d book of his trilogy on the US Army in World War II--this volume is called Guns At Last Light--his narrative style was compared to a pointillist artist who uses many small facts and insights to create a larger tapestry that tells a compelling story. You do something like that when you produce these gems.

]'m honored by the comp. Thanks.

We may disagree a lot, but I value your insights.

[moonslav59]

The lux tax for 2018 is $197 mil. It was $195 this year and the last numbers I saw for the sox for 2017 shows they exceeded that by $4 mil.

I read somewhere it was $207M.

The real number is the secondary penalty phase level, which I think is $237M, but if it's $227M, then we are squeezed, unless we decide to drop our draft pick 10 slots and go for broke.

[OH FOY!]

I keep reading Moustakas by you where you putting him? You sign him put him at 3rd right, now what do you do with Devers Trade him?