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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #2626
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Fenway is absolutely a RH hitters HR park. It’s death to lefties for power.
    Yea, those kids Williams, Ortiz, Yastrzemski and Vaughn (1,2,3 and 7) on the all time Red Sox HR list sure had a tough time at Fenway.

  2. #2627
    Quote Originally Posted by Elktonnick View Post
    Yea, those kids Williams, Ortiz, Yastrzemski and Vaughn (1,2,3 and 7) on the all time Red Sox HR list sure had a tough time at Fenway.
    And maybe the best RH'd hitting player of all time, Manny Ramires, hit more HRs away than at home while with the Red Sox.

    I see nothing "absolute" about Fenway being an HR park for righties. In fact, the numbers show the opposite.

    Here's more....

    Our pitching staff let up more HRs Away (104 to 91).

    RHBs hit 130 HRs in 4220 PAs (3.1%).

    LHBs hit 65 HRs in 1997 PAs (3.3%),

  3. #2628
    Well isn't this just a nice discussion about our park being a hr hitter's paradise or not. Sorry guys but it is pain in the ass time. I have been duly educated this year with respect to how insignificant the homerun ball really is. LOL - Don't you all get it - if you have enough punch and judies you just don't need that big bopper. You put the guys who can lay the lumber out there and they will make Fenway look like a power hitter's paradise as they have in the past. Makes no difference which side of the plate the hit from.

  4. #2629
    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    Well isn't this just a nice discussion about our park being a hr hitter's paradise or not. Sorry guys but it is pain in the ass time. I have been duly educated this year with respect to how insignificant the homerun ball really is. LOL - Don't you all get it - if you have enough punch and judies you just don't need that big bopper. You put the guys who can lay the lumber out there and they will make Fenway look like a power hitter's paradise as they have in the past. Makes no difference which side of the plate the hit from.
    Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.

  5. #2630
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.
    You are killing my dreams Moon!

  6. #2631
    I'm all for hitting more home runs anywhere we play.




  7. #2632
    The Fenway home run haven argument is based on the short distance in left field. The problem with this is the height of the " Green Monster ". Right handed hitters who lift the ball can benefit. But line drive type hitters will actually lose home runs. This is pretty much common knowledge by now. The famous " short porch " in right at Yankee Stadium has always led to the Yankees looking for left handed pull hitters. They had much success with this. But the shifts employed in recent years have hurt the batting averages of these type of hitters. Now , we see the Yankees becoming more right hand oriented. The bottom line is that you want to build a versatile team. A team with on base percentage , power and speed. Baseball is probably the only major sport without a uniform playing field. But you can make a mistake by trying to tailor your team to your own park. Put together a good , well balanced lineup . Don't just look for someone who can hit it over the " Monster ".

  8. #2633
    The Green Monster was the main reason I always felt Matt Kemp was a horrible fit for the Sox, even in his heyday. He rips powerful line drives that never looked like they would clear the monster. I think he would have set the tram record for wall ball singles, which isn't a bad thing but also not why the Sox would have acquired him....

  9. #2634
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Very true, but even when we had big power teams, we still hit more HRs on the road.
    To be fair, we also typically bat in more innings in road games, where the Sox always come up in the ninth. As opposed to home games where the Sox only did if they were tied or trailing....

  10. #2635
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Every hitter hits line drives. Every hitter also hits fly balls. RH hitters will, on average, hit more fly balls to LF than lefties would. Fenway is a place where a fly ball to LF has a better chance to leave the park or hit the wall than it would in other parks where similar hits would be outs. I get the doubles nonsense. But Fenway has also claimed its share of cans of corn to LCF and turned them into HRs
    But not enough for them to be an average HR park. It's an above average doubles and triples park. It's a below average HR park.
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  11. #2636
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    To be fair, we also typically bat in more innings in road games, where the Sox always come up in the ninth. As opposed to home games where the Sox only did if they were tied or trailing....
    True, but since we score more at home, we often get more PAs in the process, so, here is fair:

    2003-2017
    Home: 47,075 PAs
    1,333 HRs 2.8%
    202 3Bs 0.4%
    2,932 2Bs 6.2%
    7,478 1Bs 15.9%
    4,937 BBs+HBPs 10.5%

    HRs per AB: 3.2% (1333 in 41567)

    Away: 48,036
    1,486 HRs 3.1%
    192 3Bs 0.4%
    2,151 2Bs 4.5%
    7,261 1Bs 15.1%
    4,840 BBs+ HBPs 10.1%

    HRs per AB: 3.6% (1486 in 43036)

    Still, clearly more HRs Away than Home. Significantly more 2Bs at home and more singles and BBs at home.

    How about our pitchers?

    Home PAs against: 47535
    1,169 HRs 2.46%
    0.95 HR/9
    9.6% HR/FB

    Away PAs against: 45702
    1310 HRs 2.87%
    1.11 HR/9
    11.0% HR/FB

    Last edited by moonslav59; 01-03-2018 at 11:07 AM.

  12. #2637
    I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

    I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.

  13. #2638
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

    I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.
    I think 5/150 sounds about right. I think they are willing to overpay for less years. If JD mashes for 5 years, he'll have another good payday after. Right now, Sox are just bidding against themselves which is why Boras was floating out the "he wants to really play OF" angle to increase the number of interested teams.
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  14. #2639
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I know Hosmer is younger, but if he gets $147M/7, I have to think JD will get more than some of us are hoping he has to settle on.

    I guess it comes down to what another team might offer him, or if there is even a second team.
    I would add the Padres and Royals to my earlier list of Phillies, White Sox and Brewers as teams that can afford J.D. Martinez.

    The Red Sox have competition.

  15. #2640
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I think 5/150 sounds about right. I think they are willing to overpay for less years. If JD mashes for 5 years, he'll have another good payday after. Right now, Sox are just bidding against themselves which is why Boras was floating out the "he wants to really play OF" angle to increase the number of interested teams.
    I'm not sure how that "increases interest," since teams needing an OF'er already know he plays OF and about how much he will cost. They have not bid already, because they either don't need an OF'er or they do not want to pay what it might take to get him. So many teams usual high-bidders are looking to reset their tax this year.

    I'm wondering if any other team would even offer $125/5, or would if they knew the price was dropping.

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