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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #526
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    For a 22 yr old with 31 HR in a season that ended well enough in AA, he should be higher than #97 on the top 100 (BA).
    That was 97th at mid season. He didn't have 31 Hrs then.

  2. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Johnson absolutely wins a spot on your 25 man. He is going to be your ERod and Price insurance. Heck, he and Wright might end up in your opening day rotation! If the sox do not address their rotation, then you will keep Wright and Johnson into the season or unless they completely suck and have to go.
    Did Price die or something?

  3. #528
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Did Price die or something?
    Apparently, his arm is held together by a thread or something, so says the medical experts on this board. (I'm not doubting their veracity, but I do feel Price could start 33 games next year or 3.)

    ERod may not pitch at all in 2018. Maybe late June is the earliest we can hope for.

    Wright may take time to get back to form, and we're not sure yet what his true form is.

    Porcello is a huge question mark and should be counted on as nothing more than a 4/5 starter in 2018.

    Pom has looked solid, but he's had injury histories as well. (Most pitchers do.)

    That leaves our true ace Chris Sale, who has a history of fading every month of the year and dropping steeply in September-October, so maybe we need to limit his activity during the regular season.

    All of these factor point towards us needing at least one solid starter and maybe two, or at least one and then a couple Doug Fister types as depth.

  4. #529
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I do believe that there are topics he wants to avoid and others he cannot/shouldn't talk about.

    ..
    i agree with this completely. but his answer to that question was dumb and made him look like an idiot.. if he truly wanted to avoid answering it, he should have stated that he doesnt want to talk about any medical procedures involving his players. what he shouldnt have done is said "there are no surgeries scheduled".
    i wont give him a pass. he either didnt know what was going on...or he didnt know the proper way to avoid the question. inexcusable either way.

    as for your nfl analogy...apples and oranges. nfl/vegas demands you list any player on the injury report for the smallest of bumps and bruises. BB has gotten dinged before for not listing a player. so i believe he pretty much lists everyone with a black & blue on their body as "questionable".
    other names i have posted under: none

  5. #530
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Apparently, his arm is held together by a thread or something, so says the medical experts on this board. (I'm not doubting their veracity, but I do feel Price could start 33 games next year or 3.)

    ERod may not pitch at all in 2018. Maybe late June is the earliest we can hope for.

    Wright may take time to get back to form, and we're not sure yet what his true form is.

    Porcello is a huge question mark and should be counted on as nothing more than a 4/5 starter in 2018.

    Pom has looked solid, but he's had injury histories as well. (Most pitchers do.)

    That leaves our true ace Chris Sale, who has a history of fading every month of the year and dropping steeply in September-October, so maybe we need to limit his activity during the regular season.

    All of these factor point towards us needing at least one solid starter and maybe two, or at least one and then a couple Doug Fister types as depth.
    While this board undoubtedly has doctors and even non-medical people who understand ligament damage better than me, none of them have actually diagnosed Price. Tanaka was TJ candidate at one point, too, but his surgery still remains unscheduled.

    We'll see if Price heals enough to attempt to pitch regardless. I'm all for adding another arm, but a slugging 1b needs to top the list. As there are better starting pitchers available than 1b, I expect the latter to be acquired via trade. Which likely means dealing a starter from MLB, since the farm has very little left in the way of centerpieces. So whoever they deal also needs to be replaced.

    If the Sox move Bogaerts, then maybe a different direction at shortstop is the way to go. While I wouldn't hand the position to Marrero or Lin, a defender of their caliber (Ahmed? Cozart? Galvis?) still might be a contributor in ways beyond offense. ...

  6. #531
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    While this board undoubtedly has doctors and even non-medical people who understand ligament damage better than me, none of them have actually diagnosed Price. Tanaka was TJ candidate at one point, too, but his surgery still remains unscheduled.

    We'll see if Price heals enough to attempt to pitch regardless. I'm all for adding another arm, but a slugging 1b needs to top the list. As there are better starting pitchers available than 1b, I expect the latter to be acquired via trade. Which likely means dealing a starter from MLB, since the farm has very little left in the way of centerpieces. So whoever they deal also needs to be replaced.

    If the Sox move Bogaerts, then maybe a different direction at shortstop is the way to go. While I wouldn't hand the position to Marrero or Lin, a defender of their caliber (Ahmed? Cozart? Galvis?) still might be a contributor in ways beyond offense. ...
    I agree a big slugger is our number one priority. First base is the opening we have, and it is known for slugging, but unfortunately, there are not really any great slugging 1Bmen on the FA market this winter. Speaking of medical staffs, I'm wonder if they feel HRam will be able to play 1B FT next year. If so, then we can sign an OF'er to DH and cover the 4th OF'er (JD Martinez/Upton/Bruce) opening at the same time, or we could just sign a DH only type player (Duda?).

    If we only have about $40M to spend to get just below the second panlty luxury limit point, then it may be very hard to get a great slugger and rock solid SP'er through free agency. That's where trading Bogey (or JBJ) might be our only other option.

  7. #532
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I agree a big slugger is our number one priority. First base is the opening we have, and it is known for slugging, but unfortunately, there are not really any great slugging 1Bmen on the FA market this winter. Speaking of medical staffs, I'm wonder if they feel HRam will be able to play 1B FT next year. If so, then we can sign an OF'er to DH and cover the 4th OF'er (JD Martinez/Upton/Bruce) opening at the same time, or we could just sign a DH only type player (Duda?).

    If we only have about $40M to spend to get just below the second panlty luxury limit point, then it may be very hard to get a great slugger and rock solid SP'er through free agency. That's where trading Bogey (or JBJ) might be our only other option.
    This post is reality folks.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  8. #533
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I agree a big slugger is our number one priority. First base is the opening we have, and it is known for slugging, but unfortunately, there are not really any great slugging 1Bmen on the FA market this winter. Speaking of medical staffs, I'm wonder if they feel HRam will be able to play 1B FT next year. If so, then we can sign an OF'er to DH and cover the 4th OF'er (JD Martinez/Upton/Bruce) opening at the same time, or we could just sign a DH only type player (Duda?).

    If we only have about $40M to spend to get just below the second panlty luxury limit point, then it may be very hard to get a great slugger and rock solid SP'er through free agency. That's where trading Bogey (or JBJ) might be our only other option.
    It all depends on how far dealing Dan wishes to go. The prospect well is dry for major trades, so he will either have to deal with someone and take a salary dump or sign free agents. I have postulated previously that the sox would sign one big bat and a guy like Duda on a 1 year deal. That would fit in nicely below the $40 mil to spend and it would guarantee that Duda and Hanley are FA's after 2018

    I see the sox diving HEAVILY into the reclamation project pitching front. They will snag a starter like a Fister from this year who is down on his luck. They might snag two at low rent and use them as insurance if they don't feel Johnson and Wright are up to the task.
    Hal sucks

  9. #534
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I agree a big slugger is our number one priority. First base is the opening we have, and it is known for slugging, but unfortunately, there are not really any great slugging 1Bmen on the FA market this winter. Speaking of medical staffs, I'm wonder if they feel HRam will be able to play 1B FT next year. If so, then we can sign an OF'er to DH and cover the 4th OF'er (JD Martinez/Upton/Bruce) opening at the same time, or we could just sign a DH only type player (Duda?).

    If we only have about $40M to spend to get just below the second panlty luxury limit point, then it may be very hard to get a great slugger and rock solid SP'er through free agency. That's where trading Bogey (or JBJ) might be our only other option.
    First point about Hanley is that he had one shoulder operated on. I had heard that both shoulders were giving him trouble. His recovery and ability to play first and hit at a decent level could change our priorities. Some significant ifs there.

    If Hanley can play first, then we can look for a designated hitter, although I would prefer to pick up a field player who can also be a designated hitter. Maybe we get a 1st baseman who can swap off duties with Hanley.

    I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop on Pedey. If he undergoes knee surgery it could be a season ending move. He is aware of the possible consequences and has yet to make a decision. We may well need to find a replacement as a high priority. Some have suggested Betts but to take a GG outfielder and move him to 2nd is a questionable thing to do. We have the possibility of Nunez if he is sound, or Chavis out of the minors.

    With Hanley playing first, we have To ask ourselves if Devers defense no only will improve, but also improve enough so he isn't a defensive liability.

    I would keep Bogey at short and trust that a new hitting coach can get him to make the changes that can make him a more consistent hitter.

    I do expect JBJ to be moved so that we can pick up a power bat for the outfield. Would Betts go into CF? Would Beni go to RF? Lots of big bats to think about for our outfield.

    As far as looking for one or two starting pitchers, what team isn't? Competition will be fierce. Hope we can get one and live with that.

  10. #535
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I agree a big slugger is our number one priority. First base is the opening we have, and it is known for slugging, but unfortunately, there are not really any great slugging 1Bmen on the FA market this winter. Speaking of medical staffs, I'm wonder if they feel HRam will be able to play 1B FT next year. If so, then we can sign an OF'er to DH and cover the 4th OF'er (JD Martinez/Upton/Bruce) opening at the same time, or we could just sign a DH only type player (Duda?).

    If we only have about $40M to spend to get just below the second panlty luxury limit point, then it may be very hard to get a great slugger and rock solid SP'er through free agency. That's where trading Bogey (or JBJ) might be our only other option.
    Another possibility is to try to "lengthen the lineup" by upgrading a couple spots. The Sox could also sign someone like Lucroy to catch nd a cheap hitter like Duda, Morrison or Bruce for first. This does leave pretty good cash for pitching, but isn't my favorite strategy. ..

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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    It all depends on how far dealing Dan wishes to go. The prospect well is dry for major trades, so he will either have to deal with someone and take a salary dump or sign free agents. I have postulated previously that the sox would sign one big bat and a guy like Duda on a 1 year deal. That would fit in nicely below the $40 mil to spend and it would guarantee that Duda and Hanley are FA's after 2018

    I see the sox diving HEAVILY into the reclamation project pitching front. They will snag a starter like a Fister from this year who is down on his luck. They might snag two at low rent and use them as insurance if they don't feel Johnson and Wright are up to the task.
    It was hard as hell for us to sign a guy like Fister, because we had a starting rotation with 6 highly qualified starters (including Wright). Good reclamation projects want to go places where they know they can start on day one and show they are back, so they can get biug money the following year. Fister did not do as well as many think he did. Yes, he exceeded expectations and did well for a 5th starter. Watch what he makes next year compared to this. DD is going to have to be very shrewd to get 2 of the better "projects" in hopes one works out as well as Fister or better.

    I have suggested trying to sign JD Martinez and Duda (as a platoon for HRam at 1B to nix HRam's vesting option for 2019). The problem is, that will eat just about all the money. We can trim $1-2 M here and there by trading or non-tendering certain arb player like Holt, Rutledge and maybe a RP'er to squeeze enough money to sign a better than "project" pitcher, but the 2nd penalty limit may have to be passed for one year to really meet all three of our biggest needs:

    1. Slugger (1B, DH or 4th OF'er)
    2. 1B, DH or 4th OF'er (the one that is not filled by #1)
    3. Solid #3 starter (to cover for injured/questionable starters)


  12. #537
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    First point about Hanley is that he had one shoulder operated on. I had heard that both shoulders were giving him trouble. His recovery and ability to play first and hit at a decent level could change our priorities. Some significant ifs there.


    If Hanley can play first, then we can look for a designated hitter, although I would prefer to pick up a field player who can also be a designated hitter. Maybe we get a 1st baseman who can swap off duties with Hanley.

    Yes, if HRam can't play 1B and we sign JD Martinez or trade for Stanton, we bench and eat $22M for the DH on the bench or DFA'd. I guess we could trade JBJ for a pitcher or 1Bman and play Stanton or JD in LF as we move Beni to CF, but big changes might have to be made to make it all fit.



    I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop on Pedey. If he undergoes knee surgery it could be a season ending move. He is aware of the possible consequences and has yet to make a decision. We may well need to find a replacement as a high priority. Some have suggested Betts but to take a GG outfielder and move him to 2nd is a questionable thing to do. We have the possibility of Nunez if he is sound, or Chavis out of the minors.

    Nunez goes under the knife and was estimated to maybe make $7M x 3 by fangraphs. If we get a big slugger, a 1B/DH and a solid pitcher, we can't afford Nunez unless we blow by the second penalty level luxury tax.



    With Hanley playing first, we have To ask ourselves if Devers defense no only will improve, but also improve enough so he isn't a defensive liability.
    Honestly, I think Devers at 1B next year makes the most sense for our chances in 2018 and 2019. It might not be whats best for him or the Sox long term goals, but for the immediate future, I'm not sure we can withstand his "learning curve" on defense. That might mean signing Moustakas, instead of JD- who may want to play our west anyways or command too much salary and years for a player his age and with his lack of seasons without injuries.

    Sign Moustakas, move Devers to 1B, HRam to DH and then maybe try trading JBJ and prospects for Stanton. Again, this plan would, by itself, put us over the second level or very close, so there'd be no room for a SP'er and back-up 2Bman.



    I would keep Bogey at short and trust that a new hitting coach can get him to make the changes that can make him a more consistent hitter.

    I think the injury affected his hitting. My worry is his total lack of defensive improvement over 3+ years in MLB. He's actually slightly regressed on D.



    I do expect JBJ to be moved so that we can pick up a power bat for the outfield. Would Betts go into CF? Would Beni go to RF? Lots of big bats to think about for our outfield.

    I'm a big JBJ and defense fan, but I can see him being moved. I don't see Beni's arm and instincts in Fenway's gigantic RF. I like Betts out there.



    As far as looking for one or two starting pitchers, what team isn't? Competition will be fierce. Hope we can get one and live with that.

    BINGO- one better one.

  13. #538
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Another possibility is to try to "lengthen the lineup" by upgrading a couple spots. The Sox could also sign someone like Lucroy to catch nd a cheap hitter like Duda, Morrison or Bruce for first. This does leave pretty good cash for pitching, but isn't my favorite strategy. ..
    I'm also not so sure Lucroy's bat has much longevity in it.

    Plus, I think one reason our staff over performed this year, despite all the injuries was because Vaz and Leon were behind the plate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm also not so sure Lucroy's bat has much longevity in it.

    Plus, I think one reason our staff over performed this year, despite all the injuries was because Vaz and Leon were behind the plate.
    Catcher is actually one of the places we need the least amount of help

    Vasquez is just fine. He takes good at-bats, seems capable of being a consistent .270 sort of hitter - and given his defense that is terrific. The power is limited, and offense will never be why you pay him ... but I am comfortable that he is a long term starter for any number of teams, including this one.

    We could possibly upgrade at backup catcher - but again, for a backup, Leon is about as good as you will probably get. Now in 2018 maybe try to get it to more like 120 starts for Vasquez and it'll be okay.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    Catcher is actually one of the places we need the least amount of help

    Vasquez is just fine. He takes good at-bats, seems capable of being a consistent .270 sort of hitter - and given his defense that is terrific. The power is limited, and offense will never be why you pay him ... but I am comfortable that he is a long term starter for any number of teams, including this one.

    We could possibly upgrade at backup catcher - but again, for a backup, Leon is about as good as you will probably get. Now in 2018 maybe try to get it to more like 120 starts for Vasquez and it'll be okay.
    I would agree. But Dombrowski's made some moves in the past that make me question how much he cares about defense. For example when he moved Cabrera third base to accommodate Fielder even though the DH was already out for the season

    Xso I'm thinking maybe he'll try to squeeze any offense you can out of any place on with diamonds and if he sees Lucroy as an upgrade he might be interested. Personally I question how much Lucroy has left in the tank
    Last edited by notin; 10-20-2017 at 11:47 PM.

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