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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I think they [NYY] don't go after him [Stanton] and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

    It doesn't have to be either-or. There's a limit on how much a team can give Otani.

    There's enough money for both. The Yanks also have a ton of good prospects Miami will be interested in. It's just a matter of the Yanks really wanting him or not.

    The ball is in their court, as much as I hate to admit it.
    The biggest obstacle the Yankees might face is the potential obtainable of the Marlins' GM. If he insists on Judge and won't move, the Yankees undoubtedly walk.

    And we've all seen teams that don't budge on their demands. Some do negotiate, which is why Benintendi is still in Boston after the Sale trade. But some don't, which is why Cole Hamels isn't in Boston and his former stubborn GM is, coaching first base....

  2. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    On Stanton...

    Jason Martinez from the MLBTR chat, doesn't seem to think the Marlins will get much for Stanton, if the team takes all the salary. Here's the exchange:


    6:01 What do you think is realistic for the marlins to expect back if they take on none of Stanton's salary?

    Jason Martinez:
    6:02 Even if they can clear the entire salary, I have to think they'd land at least one Top 50 prospect. This is why I don't think the Giants have any chance.

    Baseball America has these big spending teams top ranked prospects listed like this... (mid-season)

    NYY
    3 G Torres
    36 B Rutherford
    49 C Frazier
    56 C Adams
    71 E Florial
    73 J Sheffield

    BOS
    6 Devers
    87 Groome
    96 Chavez

    LAD
    17 W Buehler
    35 A Verdugo
    60 Y Alvarez
    74 W Calhoun

    SFG
    86 C Shaw

    Cubs
    none

    It looks like a 3 team race, if it comes down to money and top prospects: the Yanks, Dodgers and Sox.

    Note: MLB.com has Groome at #42 and Chavis at #92.

    By the way, Rutherford was the center piece in the deal with the White Sox which gave us Kahnle, Robertson and T Frazier

  3. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The biggest obstacle the Yankees might face is the potential obtainable of the Marlins' GM. If he insists on Judge and won't move, the Yankees undoubtedly walk.

    And we've all seen teams that don't budge on their demands. Some do negotiate, which is why Benintendi is still in Boston after the Sale trade. But some don't, which is why Cole Hamels isn't in Boston and his former stubborn GM is, coaching first base....
    I don't expect a trade to NYY for Stanton, I don't think they will be paying the price Miami will be asking for, have the pieces but I doubt Cashman will surrender a haul of prospects from him.

    If he gets to NYY will be just like a salary dump (which is not going to happen) Miami is counting in this trade to start rebuilding the farm.

  4. #514
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    I might be way off base, but I'm not so sure the Marlins are going to get as much as some of the propositions I've seen here.

    It could turn into a bidding war and get out of hand, but the Marlins really need to trade him. They can't afford him. Everyone knows it.

    Only about a handful of teams will take that sort of contract.

    I say we trade Bogey to AZ.

    AZ sends a couple top prospects to MIA.

    We throw in Groome, Flores and Shawaryn and see what they say.

    We then sign Cozart to $45M/3 and Cobb for whatever it takes.

    1. Pedey
    2. Betts
    3. Beni
    4. Stanton DH
    5. Cozart
    6. Devers
    7. HRam 1B
    8. JBJ
    9. Vaz

    Bench: Leon, 3 from- Hernandez, Travis, Swihart, Marrero, Holt, Mars and Lin

    SP Sale, Price, Cobb, Pom, Porcello, Wright-ERod

    RP Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman, Hembree-Scott-Thornburg




    Last edited by moonslav59; 10-19-2017 at 07:21 PM.

  5. #515
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    Soxprospects.com recently posted it's Fall Rankings.

    http://soxprospects.com/index.html

    Some significant changes....

    1. Groome 19
    2. Chavis 22
    3. Mata 18
    4. Houck 21
    5. Flores 17
    6. Travis 24
    7. Ockimey 22
    8. Brannen 19
    9. Shawaryn 23
    10. Scherff 19
    11. Beeks 24
    12. Johnson 26
    13. Chatham 21
    14. Dalbec 22
    15. D Hernandez 20
    16. Raudes 19
    17. Thompson 23
    18. D Diaz 16
    19. Lin 23
    20. Lakins 23
    21. Maddox 26
    22. Velazquez 28
    23. Brentz 28
    24. Netzer 21
    25. Taylor 24

    I'd move Maddox up, despite being 26 y/o.

    I'd move Travis to number 10 or 11.


    Last edited by moonslav59; 10-19-2017 at 07:35 PM.

  6. #516
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Soxprospects.com recently posted it's Fall Rankings.

    http://soxprospects.com/index.html

    Some significant changes....

    1. Groome 19
    2. Chavis 22
    3. Mata 18
    4. Houck 21
    5. Flores 17
    6. Travis 24
    7. Ockimey 22
    8. Brannen 19
    9. Shawaryn 23
    10. Scherff 19
    11. Beeks 24
    12. Johnson 26
    13. Chatham 21
    14. Dalbec 22
    15. D Hernandez 20
    16. Raudes 19
    17. Thompson 23
    18. D Diaz 16
    19. Lin 23
    20. Lakins 23
    21. Maddox 26
    22. Velazquez 28
    23. Brentz 28
    24. Netzer 21
    25. Taylor 24

    I'd move Maddox up, despite being 26 y/o.

    I'd move Travis to number 10 or 11.



    The national pundits don't seem to like Chavis as much as his numbers should suggest. 31 bombs from a 22 yr old is impressive. I honestly think he is your actual top prospect, who really needs just to work on his patience at the plate and prove his power this season wasn't a fluke. I don't like Jay Groome to be totally honest with you. He's got all the tools, but I don't like his makeup, his injury history or his command. The rest of that list is pretty weak to be honest when you consider where this system was just a year or two ago
    Hal sucks

  7. #517
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    It's not too long for the time to add rule 5 players to the 40 man roster or risk losing them to the draft. (The team drafting a player must keep the player on the 25 man roster for 90 days.)

    Here's the list:
    Jalen Beeks
    Danny Mars
    Jeremy Barfield
    Jake Cosart
    Justin Haley
    Kyle Martin
    Jordan Procyshen
    Victor Acosta
    Jake Romanski
    Chandler Shepherd
    Teddy Stankiewicz
    Yoan Aybar
    Trey Ball
    Ty Buttrey
    Rusney Castillo
    Jantzen Witte
    Kevin McAvoy

    Danny Bethea
    Jordan Betts
    Harrison Cooney
    Enmanuel De Jesus
    Jhonathan Diaz
    Willis Figueroa
    Pat Goetze
    Daniel Gonzalez
    Juan Hernandez
    Bryan Hudson
    Dedgar Jimenez
    Raiwinson Lameda
    Deiner Lopez
    Isaias Lucena
    Algenis Martinez
    Daniel McGrath
    Ritzi Mendoza
    Mike Meyers
    Mike Miller
    Samuel Miranda
    Joseph Monge
    Jhon Nunez
    Justin Pacchioli
    Yankory Pimentel
    Hildemaro Requena
    Jeremy Rivera
    Fernando Rodriguez
    Josh Smith
    Cole Sturgeon
    Carlos Tovar
    Jordan Weems

    I see maybe 4 or 5 players that should be, or are close to being, good enough to protect.

    Now, how many roster spots can we open up? (Not counting the slot(s) to be taken by signing free agents.)

    The 26 sure keepers unless traded:
    Betts
    Benintendi
    Devers
    Sale
    Bogaerts
    Bradley
    Kimbrel
    Pomeranz
    Rodriguez (place on 60 day DL?)
    Pedey
    Vazquez
    Smith
    Kelly
    Maddox
    Wright (place on 60 day DL?)
    Thornburg (place on 60 day DL?)
    Workman
    Barnes
    Travis
    Velazquez
    Scott
    Ross (place on 60 day DL?)
    Leon
    Porcello
    Price
    HRam

    4 bubble players with options remaining
    M Hernandez
    Tzu-Wei Lin
    Brock Holt
    Ben Taylor


    4 bubble players with no options remaining (DFA, trade or non-tender):
    Marrero
    Hembree
    Johnson
    Swihart

    Gone:
    Owens
    Rutledge
    Elias

    If we keep all the bubble players, we're at 34 and can protect 6 rule 5 players. I'm not sure, but I think you can't have players on the 60 man DL during the rule 5 period. Assuming we get rid of Owens, Rutledge and Elias, I'm not sure we can keep all 34 players later on, since so the 4 no-option players will not all make the 25 man roster, unless we have several players on the DL. We could just decide now, who to let go and perhaps keep 1-2 more rule 5 guys, at least until we sign a FA or two and are forced to make further choices.

    I don't really see a major dilemma this year, but some choices might be tough.

    Your thoughts?

  8. #518
    Your guys with options remaining are all returning except maybe Holt unless he signs a team friendly 1 year deal. You're going to keep all 4 of your bubble players without options as they will all be given one more chance in the system to win a 25 man roster spot. I could see Marrero supplanting Holt as the super sub to save some money. I could see Johnson making the team as your long man or 5th starter. Hembree stays out there as a usable pen guy. Swihart won't be cut unless a greater option comes along. He will be given every chance to show he is healthy enough and then he will either be shopped or win a spot.
    Hal sucks

  9. #519
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    The national pundits don't seem to like Chavis as much as his numbers should suggest. 31 bombs from a 22 yr old is impressive. I honestly think he is your actual top prospect, who really needs just to work on his patience at the plate and prove his power this season wasn't a fluke. I don't like Jay Groome to be totally honest with you. He's got all the tools, but I don't like his makeup, his injury history or his command. The rest of that list is pretty weak to be honest when you consider where this system was just a year or two ago
    Certainly, we are much worse off than a year or two ago, but we do have some very young promising prospects that might rise quickly next year.

    True MLB ready or near ready prospects are rather thin and weak, granted:

    Maddox 26
    Velazquez 28
    Travis 24
    Johnson 26
    Brentz 28
    Taylor 24
    Beeks 24
    Chavis 22
    Shawaryn 23



  10. #520
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    The national pundits don't seem to like Chavis as much as his numbers should suggest. 31 bombs from a 22 yr old is impressive. I honestly think he is your actual top prospect, who really needs just to work on his patience at the plate and prove his power this season wasn't a fluke. I don't like Jay Groome to be totally honest with you. He's got all the tools, but I don't like his makeup, his injury history or his command. The rest of that list is pretty weak to be honest when you consider where this system was just a year or two ago
    Groome has some incredible stuff. His curveball has a chance to be Kershaw like.
    Can he put it all together next season? Hard to say. But if he does we have s future #1 starter on our hands.

    Ps: our record of developing together by pitchers is not what I would describe as spectacular!

  11. #521
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Your guys with options remaining are all returning except maybe Holt unless he signs a team friendly 1 year deal. You're going to keep all 4 of your bubble players without options as they will all be given one more chance in the system to win a 25 man roster spot. I could see Marrero supplanting Holt as the super sub to save some money. I could see Johnson making the team as your long man or 5th starter. Hembree stays out there as a usable pen guy. Swihart won't be cut unless a greater option comes along. He will be given every chance to show he is healthy enough and then he will either be shopped or win a spot.
    Holt's arb is estimated at $2M. My guess is, we let him go or trade him. Hernandez, Lin, Swihart and Marrero might fight for the last 3 slots on the 25 man roster.

    I don't think Hembree is good enough to make the 25 man roster, if all pitchers are healthy, but I agree, we keep him as long as possible.

    I want to try to make room for Johnson, even if to just give him one last try.

  12. #522
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The national pundits don't seem to like Chavis as much as his numbers should suggest.

    He's been hurt and came on strong after the mid season rankings came out, so let's wait and see how the national pundits view him now.

  13. #523
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Holt's arb is estimated at $2M. My guess is, we let him go or trade him. Hernandez, Lin, Swihart and Marrero might fight for the last 3 slots on the 25 man roster.

    I don't think Hembree is good enough to make the 25 man roster, if all pitchers are healthy, but I agree, we keep him as long as possible.

    I want to try to make room for Johnson, even if to just give him one last try.
    Johnson absolutely wins a spot on your 25 man. He is going to be your ERod and Price insurance. Heck, he and Wright might end up in your opening day rotation! If the sox do not address their rotation, then you will keep Wright and Johnson into the season or unless they completely suck and have to go.
    Hal sucks

  14. #524
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The national pundits don't seem to like Chavis as much as his numbers should suggest.

    He's been hurt and came on strong after the mid season rankings came out, so let's wait and see how the national pundits view him now.
    For a 22 yr old with 31 HR in a season that ended well enough in AA, he should be higher than #97 on the top 100 (BA).
    Hal sucks

  15. #525
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Cook View Post
    Groome has some incredible stuff. His curveball has a chance to be Kershaw like.
    Can he put it all together next season? Hard to say. But if he does we have s future #1 starter on our hands.

    Ps: our record of developing together by pitchers is not what I would describe as spectacular!
    There are guys in every system who you salivate over and watch falter in the development stages. Groome must prove he can get long season hitters out and he needs to prove he can locate. He is only #1 in your system right now because of reputation and due to the dearth of upper level talent. There was another former top pick lefty with all the talent in the world who dealt with injury issues and has fallen from grace. Look up Brady Aiken. The guy walked more than he struck out in 132 innings
    Hal sucks

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