A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised if Moreland's role was minimal at first and Hanley was given every opportunity to return to form.

I think Hanley's questionable stamina and health and ancillary to hurt himself will play a bigger role in this option than the alleged platoon. ..

I agree. I see Moreland like a Chris Young- an expensive sub. He may end up playing vs close to half the RH'd starters.

Is the plan to schedule OF'er rest only at NL parks, in order to maximize JD's PAs at OF/DH? If we end up playing JD in the OF in some AL parks, it means HRam DHs and Moreland plays 1B. I guess when Pedey returns, Nunez could play the OF, instead of JD- keeping Moreland or HRam on the bench.

On a team with a very limited summer spending budget or facing the risk of majorpenalties for going $40+M over the limit, I'd think spending $6.5M x 2 on a back up is a luxury we could not afford. We need pitching. We need more power. Moreland is neither.

1Bmen are easy to find or acquire mid season. Last season was a prime example.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

By Kyle Downing | March 17, 2018 at 1:30pm CDT

First baseman Logan Morrison ended up with the Twins, but many expected the Red Sox to pursue him more aggressively than they did. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe has some interesting quotes from LoMo, who smacked 38 homers for the Rays last season but ultimately settled for a meager $6.5MM guarantee with performance escalators and a vesting option. Morrison says he himself didn’t have any conversations with Boston. His agent spoke with the club during the winter meetings, but apparently “that was it,” and clearly that discussion didn’t culminate in any serious offers. “Am I surprised? I guess. I don’t know,” he said. “I don’t know if it was the most shocking thing I saw [in the market].” The Sox ended up re-signing Mitch Moreland to play first base for them on a two-year, $13MM contract.

[moonslav59]

Here's a real hindsight comp choice:

Option A:
$22M x 5 JD Martinez
$6.5M x 2 Moreland
$4M x 2 Nunez
$32.5M for 2018 and 2019 plus JD afterwards as he ages

Option B
$12M x 1 Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to a similar deal (maybe $14M x 1)
$6.5M x 1 Moustakas (Move Devers to DH/3B)
$6.5M x 1 Morrison (HRam to DH/1B/bench)
$4M x 1 Nunez
$29M for 2018 and zero for 2019

I like option A, but option B looks pretty damn good, especially with Cobb instead of Lynn.

How about option C?

$13M Cobb
$12M Lynn
$6.5M Moose
$4M Nunez
$35.5M for 2018 (leaving us with just about $3M for a summer spending budget)

[Spudboy]

Ugh.

I am so sick of the Moreland topic.

[Kimmi]

If HRam vests, kiss the extensions good bye or face the mega penalties associated with going over $40M.

Close the window a year or two earlier.

Yes, win now is great, but I thought you cared more about the future.

Keeping HRam means getting rid of Pom or Kimbrel (we probably lose one anyway- now it's both), or take the mega penalty and further hurt our chances at rebuilding after the window closes.

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

[moonslav59]

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

Then, we will likely say good bye to Pom and Kimbrel and have no money to try and replace them.

[Kimmi]

Then, we will likely say good bye to Pom and Kimbrel and have no money to try and replace them.

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Ugh.

I am so sick of the Moreland topic.

Many of us are now, I think.

[cp176]

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

You summed it up pretty well for me here as well. I love Kimbrel and would love to see him stay here but I think that that will be up to him. I hope and I don't think the Red Sox would make a huge monetary commitment to a closer no matter how good he might be.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

It's actually how much HRam is hitting better than Moreland/Nunez/Swihart.

If HRam is hitting at a pace of .280 30 100, do you play him over a Moreland at .280 25 90? Over Nunez at .300 with an OBP of .360?

If Moreland is hitting RHP's better than HRam, even though HRam's overall numbers are better, what then?

It's not just about how well HRam is doing.

If he's heads and shoulders above the next choice, then yes, he will play over others and reach his vest number of 497 PAs, even with us holding our noses.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

Red Sox knuckleballer Steven Wright may open the season in the team’s rotation, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. Wright, who has been working back from the season-ending left knee surgery he underwent last May, threw three innings of live batting practice Saturday and called it “a huge, huge step in the right direction.” There’s also optimism about left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who had knee surgery last October. Of Rodriguez, manager Alex Cora said, “It seems like Eddie, he’s in a sprint right now, which is great.” Meanwhile, lefty Drew Pomeranz – yet another injured Red Sox starter – will throw a minor league game Sunday as he attempts to bounce back from a mild flexor strain. Cora noted that “you can’t rule out” Pomeranz or either of the other banged-up starters from beginning the year in Boston’s rotation.

[FredLynn]

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

I guess some of it depends on whether or not we are playing well enough to win a WS. If thats the case then sure, go for it this year. But if it looks like we aren't making the playoffs-or if we are just a marginal playoff team-or if we have so many injuries that contending for a ring is a long shot-then I do not allow Hanley Ramirez to become an albatross for this team next year.

[moonslav59]

The window closes more quickly with HRam's $22M on the 2019 budget.

There's just no sugar coating it.

If he wins us a ring in 2018, it's worth it, and I'm actually someone who has faith in HRam this year, but I just can't see us getting to a point where we're thinking, "Hram is doing so well, we just can't win without him, so screw the future, let's ride the Hram wave to a 2018 ring!"

[Spudboy]

You summed it up pretty well for me here as well. I love Kimbrel and would love to see him stay here but I think that that will be up to him. I hope and I don't think the Red Sox would make a huge monetary commitment to a closer no matter how good he might be.

I am not so sure Kimbrel will be anxious to move on to another team.

His kid is really ill so my guess his FA status is not even on his mind now. Also, his kid's Doctors and the best pediatric science is in Boston.

We will see.

[moonslav59]

Our best hope is that Smith or Thornburg pitch well enough to give us confidence one can close next year.

Replacing Pom won't be easy.