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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #1141
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    I doubt the Mariners have any interest in Michael Chavis, a 22-year-old fringe prospect with a 25.3 % strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in a minor league career that has yet to reach Triple A. In July the Mariners traded away their same-age, strikeout-prone, righthand-hitting slugger in outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, who is ranked higher than Chavis on the MLB.com prospect list:

    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
    Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh.

    31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels.

    Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA.

    Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?
    Last edited by moonslav59; 11-10-2017 at 01:47 PM.

  2. #1142
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Chavis was bothered by injuries early on. He's certainly not a lock prospect, but "fringe" might be too harsh.

    31 HRs in 470 ABs is pretty good at A+/AA levels.

    Baseball America ranked Chavis 96th mid season this year, before 14 HRs in 67 games at AA.

    Would the Mariners be interested in Johnson, Beeks, Shawaryn, Swihart or Holt?
    The Mariners could toss Brian Johnson, Jalen Beeks and/or Mike Shawaryn on their heap of starters/long relievers who would pitch no more than four innings a game in the suggested wolf pack* approach.

    The problem would be finding room on the 40-man roster.

    The Mariners are in the market for a defensive catcher to back up Mike Zunino so Blake Swihart would not fit the bill. Seattle already has its Brock Holts in Taylor Motter, Andrew Romine and Zach Vincej.

    * http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/artic...ing-offseason/

  3. #1143
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    The Mariners could toss Brian Johnson, Jalen Beeks and/or Mike Shawaryn on their heap of starters/long relievers who would pitch no more than four innings a game in the suggested wolf pack* approach.

    The problem would be finding room on the 40-man roster.

    The Mariners are in the market for a defensive catcher to back up Mike Zunino so Blake Swihart would not fit the bill. Seattle already has its Brock Holts in Taylor Motter, Andrew Romine and Zach Vincej.

    * http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/artic...ing-offseason/
    Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?

  4. #1144
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Any interest in Sandy Leon? Hembree?
    Seattle's Mike Marjama, a 28-year-old catcher who will earn the league minimum next season, is projected to produce about the same as 28-year-old Boston catcher Sandy Leon, who is projected to earn $2.1 million in 2018.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...594&position=C

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...273&position=C

    Heath Hembree would be another cost-controlled arm in the Seattle bullpen:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

  5. #1145
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    They do get Chavis, too. He may replace Cruz (HRam) at DH in 2019, so 2 years of Porcello, 3 years of JBJ and 5 years of Chavis for one year of Cruz and 3 years of Felix.

    I agree, that upside may not outweigh the downside of losing two iconic Mariners. I think it's close.

    I'm curious what Sox fans think of this.
    Chavis is the top hitter in the system right now and if the Sox have to trade to get their power bat he will be included.

  6. #1146
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    One problem with signing an extension before the arbs run out is the impact on the luxury tax.

    It can lessen the tax impact in later years, if the overall cost is lower due to including arb year deductions.
    I know - John Henry might have to settle for eating tunafish straight out of the can because of the impact.

  7. #1147
    Quote Originally Posted by sk7326 View Post
    I know - John Henry might have to settle for eating tunafish straight out of the can because of the impact.
    Until he demonstrates he's willing to allow the Sox to become the Dodgers East, I'm going on the assumption there's a priority to keep the budget near the luxury limit most of the time.

    We've never had an opening day roster with a budget over $200M.

    We will likely break that streak in 2018, but I'm not sure we'll be over the luxury limit every year from here on out.

  8. #1148
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Seattle's Mike Marjama, a 28-year-old catcher who will earn the league minimum next season, is projected to produce about the same as 28-year-old Boston catcher Sandy Leon, who is projected to earn $2.1 million in 2018.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...594&position=C

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...273&position=C

    Heath Hembree would be another cost-controlled arm in the Seattle bullpen:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.

  9. #1149
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    You said you were looking for a defensive catcher.
    I should not have written that because I am unsure what, if anything, the Mariners want after Mike Zunino, their 26-year-old first-string catcher, posted 3.6 fWAR this year (and spent just enough time in the minors to give Seattle an additional year of team control).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...265&position=C

    At any rate, I doubt the Mariners are interested in Blake Swihart, whose early 2018 projection is not encouraging:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...176&position=C

    Seattle's presumptive backup catcher is Mike Marjama:

    https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/...ect-andy-mckay

  10. #1150
    MassLive columnist Christopher Smith provides a detailed breakdown of the Red Sox budget for 2018, including each player's projected salary and payroll impact:

    http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index...rt_river_index

  11. #1151
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    MassLive columnist Christopher Smith provides a detailed breakdown of the Red Sox budget for 2018, including each player's projected salary and payroll impact:

    http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index...rt_river_index
    The numbers look right to me. We are estimated to come in at $190M before any signings or trades or DFAs.

    The key numbers:

    $7M to the luxury tax level.
    $27M to the second phase of the tax.
    $47M to the third phase of the tax.situation.

    I think the real cut off point is $46M as a one year push. Now, if we sign a bunch of guys for over one year deals, we may be looking at the second year penalty phase kicking in, unless we let guys like Kimbrel and Pom bolt without replacing them in kind.

    All the big name signings will be for more than one year, so I do think we'd prefer to not get too close to the third phase.



  12. #1152
    Can I say it now, or would I be jinxing things?

    We just might be getting....

    Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!

  13. #1153
    Wouldn't it just be so much easier to sign Matinez? Get your hitter and still save your save chips.

  14. #1154
    I would love to see either one in Fenway.

    We need power bats.

  15. #1155
    Stanton is younger and the AAV will likely be similar between the two. If you can get Stanton without hurting your team, you do it. If not, you sign JD

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