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Thread: A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

  1. #3076
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    I think it's a bargain for his level of defense and moderate + offense.

    Of course I am sure that someone will "disprove" my opinion with all types of WAR shit.

    I also think the Sox are going to lose their Arb tussle with Betts.

    I don't give a shit what Arb estimates or WAR say, that kid is worth 10.5 mil all day long.

    Why is Kelly worth 4 mil?
    Almost all arbs are worth their salaries or they would have been non tendered before the arb.

    The whole system seems flawed in some ways as things like what arb year is the player in seems to matter more than the performance level of the player in the previous season or two.

    I agree that JBJ is worth $10M on the open market, but the arb process is far from "open".

    The reason Mookie's arb number seems low compared to JBJ's is that Mookie's is a year one arb (out of 3). JBJ's is year 2 (out of 4). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years. I'm not defending the system, but it is what it is, and our players are getting close to "what they are worth" within the established system of setting the value of contracts for arb eligible players.

    Pom's $8.5M was in his final arb year. Bogey's $7M is in his 2nd of 3 arb years. I think Holt was overpaid at $2.25M for his 2nd or 3 arbs years, but we're talking by thousands not millions of dollars under the system in place.

    All in all, it looks like the Sox might end up saving a few million dollars over the estimates, but the Betts' arb decision might change that.



  2. #3077
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ). Kelly's was his final arb year, which normally is much closer to "free market" numbers than earlier arb years.


    If Kelly was a free agent right now, he would easily get double that number, and get it for 2 years.

    Given what the middle relief arms/set up guys are going for, Kelly is actually pretty good trade bait...

  3. #3078
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    If Kelly was a free agent right now, he would easily get double that number, and get it for 2 years.

    Given what the middle relief arms/set up guys are going for, Kelly is actually pretty good trade bait...
    True...or close to double.

    Addison Reed just got almost $17M/2. I think Kelly is a close comp but maybe not as good as Reed.

    Still, the last year of arb is usually "closer" to FA market rates than earlier arb years, but the numbers can still fall way short.

  4. #3079
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The data driven executives are more proof of the point that the way the game is evaluated is rapidly changing.

    15 years ago, using OBP instead of batting average was a shocking turn of events. Since then we have gone through WARP, Win Shares, WAR, and other statistical methods and dozens of new stats. Anything from xFIP to wOBA.

    How has the game itself changed in the past 15 years? Fewer IP from starters? More specialization players? Anythng else significant?
    All of these aspects reinforce one another as well as the fact that there is more money in the game than ever before. The cost of making an error in real dollars has gone up hence the trend to base more decisions on quantifiable data points.

  5. #3080
    Quote Originally Posted by Elktonnick View Post
    All of these aspects reinforce one another as well as the fact that there is more money in the game than ever before. The cost of making an error in real dollars has gone up hence the trend to base more decisions on quantifiable data points.
    There is also the latest CBA which put in some relatively small annual increases in the tax thresholds, and instituted some new penalties for exceeding the thresholds.

  6. #3081
    Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV)

    $Millions
    31.0 Price
    22.0 HRam
    20.6 Porcello
    18.5 Sandoval
    13.8 Pedroia
    13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout)
    12.5 Sale
    8.50 Pomeranz
    7.05 Bogey
    6.50 Moreland
    6.10 JBJ
    3.83 Kelly
    2.38 ERod
    2.23 Holt
    1.95 Leon
    1.43 Vaz
    1.10 Wright
    0.85 Smith
    0.85 Workman

    7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts

    5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez

    14.0 Player Benifit Payment

    $202.3M or 205.3M Total

    Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).



  7. #3082
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    There is also the latest CBA which put in some relatively small annual increases in the tax thresholds, and instituted some new penalties for exceeding the thresholds.
    Yes I agree that's an excellent point. I however was referring to the economic penalties that the marketplaces places on a franchise. The Marlins are in case in point. The prior ownership spent foolishly on some bloated long term contracts and was forced to sell the team. The new ownership's only viable option to ensure economic survival was forced to hold a virtual fire sale. I may be being overly dramatic in my language but I think one can see my point.

  8. #3083
    Quote Originally Posted by Elktonnick View Post
    Yes I agree that's an excellent point. I however was referring to the economic penalties that the marketplaces places on a franchise. The Marlins are in case in point. The prior ownership spent foolishly on some bloated long term contracts and was forced to sell the team. The new ownership's only viable option to ensure economic survival was forced to hold a virtual fire sale. I may be being overly dramatic in my language but I think one can see my point.
    Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's.

    The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership.

    They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.

  9. #3084
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Updated Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget (AVV)

    $Millions
    31.0 Price
    22.0 HRam
    20.6 Porcello
    18.5 Sandoval
    13.8 Pedroia
    13.0 Kimbrel (-1.0 credit for buyout)
    12.5 Sale
    8.50 Pomeranz
    7.05 Bogey
    6.50 Moreland
    6.10 JBJ
    3.83 Kelly
    2.38 ERod
    2.23 Holt
    1.95 Leon
    1.43 Vaz
    1.10 Wright
    0.85 Smith
    0.85 Workman

    7.5 or 10.5 (arb) Betts

    5.6 Total for Elias, Barnes, Hembree, Swihart, Beni, Scott, Taylor, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Devers, Hernandez, Jerez, Johnson, Lin, Maddox, Marrero, Shepherd, Travis, Velazquez

    14.0 Player Benifit Payment

    $202.3M or 205.3M Total

    Depending on the Betts' arb ($5.3M or $8.3M over the luxury tax).


    Moon how much does that leave before the second limit is exceeded?

    I ask you because you are always on top of this shit. I want to know because it will determine how much the Sox can spend on new signings.

    Thanks.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  10. #3085
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    Moon how much does that leave before the second limit is exceeded?

    I ask you because you are always on top of this shit. I want to know because it will determine how much the Sox can spend on new signings.

    Thanks.
    The second limit is not as bad as some have made it out to be, especially to teams that just reset their tax, like we did.

    It's the 3rd level that's the killer.

    Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are taxed at 12 percent on all money spent above $217M.

    Those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

    So, basically, we have about $11-14M (depending on Mookie's arb) to reach the second limit. We have $31-34M to spend and still stay under the 3rd limit.

    We could sign JD to $25M and have about $6M or $9M to play with this summer, if needed.


  11. #3086
    JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-...g-off-a-cliff/

  12. #3087
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    JD's Potential for Falling off a Cliff

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-...g-off-a-cliff/
    Pretty interesting analysis and certainly supports those of us who are suggesting 5 years as a maximum. When you think of his defense and injury history going past 5 years at $25 mil/year isn't warranted.

  13. #3088
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Stanton's contract was not absurd, nor Gordon's.

    The new ownership will meet up with the same issues of the old ones: lack of fans and viewership.

    They should move the team to North Carolina and start over.
    Any contract a business can not afford is absurd. Stanton's contract would have been absurd for most franchises. Even the New York Yankees may well come to rue the day they agreed to pick it up.

  14. #3089
    Quote Originally Posted by Elktonnick View Post
    Any contract a business can not afford is absurd. Stanton's contract would have been absurd for most franchises. Even the New York Yankees may well come to rue the day they agreed to pick it up.
    The AAV of Stanton's contract for the Yankees is arguably a bargain at $22 million.

    The absurd part is the length of the contract, which runs until 2027.

  15. #3090
    RIP announcer Keith Jackson, 89. He was best known as a college football play-by-play man, but he also did baseball for ABC in the late 70's and early 80's.

    He has a connection to Red Sox history as the man who called the 1978 Red Sox-Yankees playoff game.

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