A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[oldtimer]

Watching the Yankees shut down the 4th best offensive team since 1901 makes me realize just how much a crap shoot the playoffs are. There are no guarantees for anyone. Even with a great offense, there is no sure thing- not even close.

I'm not one to easily change my view based on one game or one series, but I am swinging a little more to the camp that values striving for playoff appearances more than seeking more but sporadic rings.

Just get to the dance.

That being said, I'm still thinking we can greatly improve our odds by acquiring one gigantic power bat or two very good ones.

Two of the three Yankee starters this playoff season aren't hard throwers but they are effective pitchers. Tanaka keeps the ball down and has a lot of movement with sliders, splitters and some curves.Sabbathia is on the corners and seems to have hitters baffled. Neither is required to go deep since the BP is so solid and deep. Shutting down the Indians and now the Astros says something about their pitching. Fireballers are nice to have but not necessarily essential. When pitchers get the ball up and over the plate they get susceptable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fireballers have a little more wiggle room when it comes to location, but if you don't locate to the best hitters in the world, no matter how hard you throw, you will be beaten. I also wouldn't put Tanaka entirely into the pusballing crowd yet. He was hitting 95 yesterday. CC has also resurface with some velocity, sitting 91 and reaching 93-94 at times. Both of those guys were far less effective when their fastballs sat in the high 80s.

[moonslav59]

Either that or you aren't actually seeing the type of pitching NYY have. Our pitching is very, very good and the one guy who was really underachieving has proven himself an ace in the bigs before. He just decided to save it for the postseason this year. Great pitching will shut down great hitting most of the time. The interesting thing about NYY is that they have great starting pitching AND a great bullpen. You rarely see both

I've sung the praises of Sonny Gray and stated we should have gone for him. I thought you gave a lot for him, but he's an ace, when healthy, and it was an underpay for that many years of control.

I was skeptical of Kahle (sp?), but you pen has always looked solid on paper.

You guys went for it this year. You picked up 3 guys for every one we did during the season.

[mvp 78]

He could work out well here.

He was only in TB one year, another diamond in the ruff career year by the Rays.

He was there for 2 years. You may have forgotten his 2016 season as it was replacement level value.

[OH FOY!]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.
Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.
I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.
You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

[moonslav59]

He was there for 2 years. You may have forgotten his 2016 season as it was replacement level value.

Easy to forget. Thanks for the correction.

[moonslav59]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.
Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.
I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.
You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

The other big advantage is that Stanton's luxury tax hit is just $25M a year for the remainder- assuming no opt-out.

If Harper hits bigger money, and Stanton has a big 2018, he may look to opt out.

[moonslav59]

I think they [NYY] don't go after him [Stanton] and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.

It doesn't have to be either-or. There's a limit on how much a team can give Otani.

There's enough money for both. The Yanks also have a ton of good prospects Miami will be interested in. It's just a matter of the Yanks really wanting him or not.

The ball is in their court, as much as I hate to admit it.

[notin]

When a player has a negative offensive WAR, I don't think fan advice would be any worse than their current approach!

Hmmmm... no.

66 players with at least 400 plate appearances had a lower offensive fWAR than Pedroia. Are you saying you could advise about 1/4 of tje starting position players in MLB?

[Bellhorn04]

Hmmmm... no.

66 players with at least 400 plate appearances had a lower offensive fWAR than Pedroia. Are you saying you could advise about 1/4 of tje starting position players in MLB?

mvp is a bit of a joker, shall we say. He's well aware that Pedroia's negative offensive rating was mainly a product of his awful baserunning numbers.

[mvp 78]

mvp is a bit of a joker, shall we say. He's well aware that Pedroia's negative offensive rating was mainly a product of his awful baserunning numbers.

He had a brutal 2017 for SLG and ISO, but he still rarely strikes out and has a decent OBP. He was 31st in R for 2b above 400 PA's. Woof. I don't think that's entirely due to his base running, but geez.

Then I saw Asdrubal Cabrera's BSR score and died.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has Pedey ranked on their "value" page as such...

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=3,d


34 2Bmen with 400+ PAs (they put just about anyone who played 2B on the list)

Pedey placed:

18th in batting

33rd in baserunning

(5th in fielding)

go to 450 PAs and the sample size goes to 28 players:

15 in batting +1.3

27 in running -4.7

(4th on D at +6.1)


Other numbers (out of 28 second basemen):

15th in wRC+ at 102

15th in wOBA .331

[notin]

With the Marlins hiring of Gary Denbo, puts the Yankees as my #1 for the team that might go after Stanton, then Dodgers, Sox last, as far as Prospects.
Denbo knows all the Yankee Prospects, since he was in charged of their Farm.
I think they don't go after him and full speed ahead for Otani, Tanaka already talking to him.
You have to think though, if Yankees go after Stanton it will be cheaper than Harper in a year.

Stanton also has a full NTC and might reject the Yankees and Sox.

He is an LA native. While this guarantees nothing, I don't recall any player ever turning down a large market, defending division winner hometown team.

The Sox chances rest solely on Stanton's desire to challenge the Green Monster...

[notin]

Notin - do you believe a major league baseball GM (or President of Operations) should know when not 1, not 2, but 3 of his current 25 man roster players are getting surgery? is that the least bit important to a GM that 3 of 25 players are having surgery?

sorry, the man looks clueless on this and doesnt get a "pass" from me.

I do believe that there are topics he wants to avoid and others he cannot/shouldn't talk about.

When Tom Brady is listed as "Questionable" every week and plays every Sunday, none of us suspect it's because Belichick is unaware of Tom's health...

[moonslav59]

I do believe that there are topics he wants to avoid and others he cannot/shouldn't talk about.

When Tom Brady is listed as "Questionable" every week and plays every Sunday, none of us suspect it's because Belichick is unaware of Tom's health...

Was Scott scheduled to pitch?