A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece.

Makes me wonder how much we might have gotten Moose for. Had we gotten him instead of Moreland, we might have been able to pass on JD and end up with Moose and Darvish with Devers playing 1B and/or DH.

Less than $39M/3 looks like a steal against $125M/5 for JD.

[notin]

In that scenario, how much does signing two players with qualifying offers affect the Sox next draft?

[Spudboy]

MLBTR...

While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece.

Makes me wonder how much we might have gotten Moose for. Had we gotten him instead of Moreland, we might have been able to pass on JD and end up with Moose and Darvish with Devers playing 1B and/or DH.

Less than $39M/3 looks like a steal against $125M/5 for JD.

I know he's one of your boys and I respect that. But 3/39 sounds like about what he is worth, if that.

I think he can have a fun bat sometimes but nothing really special. His defense, to me, is maybe replacement level and over rated.

Sox fucked up on Fatboy, albeit at a higher rate. No sense messing up at 3rd again. We have Devers there where he has been playing and with some experience and work on his footwork and release point he could be a good defensive player. His bat will grow to be consistently better than Moose. I think anyway.

Save the money and get someone like Moreland. Makes sense to me.

Besides, MVP says he is HOF bound.

[moonslav59]

In that scenario, how much does signing two players with qualifying offers affect the Sox next draft?

After a championship, our pick will be low anyway.

[moonslav59]

I know he's one of your boys and I respect that. But 3/39 sounds like about what he is worth, if that.

I think he can have a fun bat sometimes but nothing really special. His defense, to me, is maybe replacement level and over rated.

Sox fucked up on Fatboy, albeit at a higher rate. No sense messing up at 3rd again. We have Devers there where he has been playing and with some experience and work on his footwork and release point he could be a good defensive player. His bat will grow to be consistently better than Moose. I think anyway.

Save the money and get someone like Moreland. Makes sense to me.

Besides, MVP says he is HOF bound.

Mouse has one negative UZR year and you write him off as replacement level on defense, yet you discount all the "fun" that went with his 38 dingers in 2017.

BTW, if Moose and his +4.5 career UZR/150 is replacement level on defense, what is Devers and his -12.7 UZR/150?

Only 6 3Bmen have a better UZR/150 and more innings at 3B since 2012.

Moose places 12th out of 35 3Bmen on defense since 2012 (17th in DRS). That's better than average and far from replacement level.

[moonslav59]

In that scenario, how much does signing two players with qualifying offers affect the Sox next draft?

Isn't there no QO for Darvish. He was traded.

[cp176]

I want pitchers that can start games in Oct. right now, Darvish, Price and Sale can’t.

lol - Since the extension of the playoff season (second mini-season maybe), I bet it is getting harder and harder to find guys that can pitch effectively from late March until November. Maybe the answer is we just don't let them pitch until the first of July then take our chances.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm feeling it - LoMo and Arrieta in 2018...

LoMo's projected AAV is 12 million
Arrieta's is 25 million (same as JDM)
Total 37 million

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure Darvish + Nunez will prove to be better than JD, especially if Pedey comes back, but on paper, it's close.

I'd rather go LoMo & a solid starter. At least he brings a chance for a solid clean-up hitter to the roster.

I am good with LoMo and a solid starter as well.

Then again, I think we will contend if we stayed status quo, provided that our starting rotation, namely Price, stays healthy.

[Kimmi]

I want pitchers that can start games in Oct. right now, Darvish, Price and Sale can’t.

You have to get to October first.

I'm not a believer in the idea that Darvish, Price, or Sale are postseason chokers. Get pitchers who can get the team to October, and they should be able to get you through October as well.

In other words, I'm not making my decision on whether to sign or not sign a player based on postseason performance.

[notin]

I want pitchers that can start games in Oct. right now, Darvish, Price and Sale can’t.

So you think the Red Sox would be better off dealing Chris Sale for Charlie Morton?

[notin]

LoMo's projected AAV is 12 million
Arrieta's is 25 million (same as JDM)
Total 37 million

But for how many years?

[notin]

Isn't there no QO for Darvish. He was traded.

Good point. That does help his case.

[Bellhorn04]

But for how many years?

LoMo 3
Arrieta 4

[notin]

LoMo 3
Arrieta 4

For those years, sign me up.

Id prefer that over a $25mill 36yo JD Martinez. (Imagine if he ages like Hanley, who isn't 36 for 22 more months)...