2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[sk7326]

I understand why people are looking for ways to upgrade our offense, but I really prefer not to do that at the expense of our defense. Ozuna is not a good defensive center fielder. I would just as soon stay with JBJ.

Really the question when trading for Ozuna is whether Benintendi can be a good defensive CENTER or RIGHT FIELDER. Betts will be near league best wherever he plays ... Benintendi at least profiles as plus at Center Field. (his performance in left was not great - although there is a long history of Red Sox left fielders scoring poorly UZR-wise ... I do think Fenway's left field creates a problem for the measure) The total impact on the outfield might actually end up being small.

The idea of dealing JBJ is simply because the Red Sox could actually improve CF internally.

[sk7326]

Alex Cora will be our magic potion in 2018.

The Yankees built their team the right way. Dombrowski did not. That said, it would not be in Dombrowski's best interest to make rash moves. Our team is pretty good and pretty set for the next couple of years. We can compete with the Yankees with a few moves, none of which needs to involve Stanton.

Actually the Yankees did the same thing the Sox did to a degree. The difference is that the Yankees were in a position to sell off veterans - which the Red Sox under Dombrowski largely have not been able to. They've been too busy contending to be able to make Chapman and Miller deals (homeruns for Cashman on both). Cherington and the prior management were the ones who insisted on taking back major league players for Lester and Lackey - and thus not getting nearly enough back for deadline sales.

I am all about not selling the farm - but you have to be fair here. Dombrowski identified the prospects he saw star potential with ... Benintendi and Devers ... and dealt the rest with the understanding that a team like Boston can buy worker bees. The only thing I am critical of ultimately is selling off blue chip minor league pitching - but EVEN THEN, pitcher health is so volatile that from a sheer risk management perspective I understand being more willing to deal arms than bats.

[moonslav59]

Actually the Yankees did the same thing the Sox did to a degree. The difference is that the Yankees were in a position to sell off veterans - which the Red Sox under Dombrowski largely have not been able to. They've been too busy contending to be able to make Chapman and Miller deals (homeruns for Cashman on both). Cherington and the prior management were the ones who insisted on taking back major league players for Lester and Lackey - and thus not getting nearly enough back for deadline sales.

I am all about not selling the farm - but you have to be fair here. Dombrowski identified the prospects he saw star potential with ... Benintendi and Devers ... and dealt the rest with the understanding that a team like Boston can buy worker bees. The only thing I am critical of ultimately is selling off blue chip minor league pitching - but EVEN THEN, pitcher health is so volatile that from a sheer risk management perspective I understand being more willing to deal arms than bats.

We had a sell-off a couple times:

1) The AGon, CC, Beckett - Dodger deal
2) The free agents-to-be sell off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, A Miller and others.

The first one, I think Sox fans were 50-50 over.

The second one, fans are still going mental over.

None were under DD: both were under Ben.

The Yanks are being praised for their moves.

Ben is being roasted for his. (Note: Ben traded his vets for more established players, while Cashman traded for younger and more speculative valued talent, something many on this board frown upon.)

[FredLynn]

It's the ultimate in "grass is greener" when a Sox fans compares the two teams.

"The Yankees have Judge and Sanchez and Grigorius and all this young talent." Then when looking at the Sox, ignore the Killer B's and focus on "We have Hanley and can't keep Moreland."

"The Yankees have Severino and Grey and all we have is Steven Wright and a gimpy ERod." See how I did that? This was the lamest trick in the softlaw bag - comparing their best to our worst.

The fact is - we won more games and aren't losing any key players (they'll likely lose Tanaka). Many of their players had career years or resurgent years and many of ours had down years, two trends that could easily reverse.

We need some hitting help. But I would not rebuild everything. Despite the post-season, they're still the team with ground to make up...

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

[moonslav59]

Really the question when trading for Ozuna is whether Benintendi can be a good defensive CENTER or RIGHT FIELDER. Betts will be near league best wherever he plays ... Benintendi at least profiles as plus at Center Field. (his performance in left was not great - although there is a long history of Red Sox left fielders scoring poorly UZR-wise ... I do think Fenway's left field creates a problem for the measure) The total impact on the outfield might actually end up being small.

The idea of dealing JBJ is simply because the Red Sox could actually improve CF internally.

I would not assume Beni will be a plus defender in CF or RF. I'm not going out on a limb to say, it would be a certain downgrade on defense to have Beni replace JBJ.

The upgrade in offense would be Ozuna vs JBJ. It looks like a clear plus for Ozuna, but the 2 years vs 3 years balances it up, in my opinion.

I doubt the Marlins would trade Ozuna for JBJ and a mid level prospect. They want to avoid pricey arb players. Maybe a three-team deal could be worked out, but I'm not sure i want to give up 3 years for 2 seemingly better ones. It would play more into the 2 year window theory. I think our window is more like 3 years.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.

I don't see us matching up with the Rays, but we sure could use all of the three bolded players.

[fxkatt]

The Yanks exacted a great deal more from two players than any of ours did from multiple players. And then they go ahead and resign Chapman after what was no more than a short rental. It was lucky but they also knew what prospects to pick out and demand. They kind of did to Chicago and Cleveland what the Celtics did to Brooklyn, but not quite to that degree.

We'll see what the Yanks do with their starting rotation (only iffy part of team) during the off-season. I don't think Stanton is so much the issue as a shut down starting pitcher. Who's available?? (haven't done my homework yet)

[moonslav59]

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

I don't think it's a stretch to expect several players to do more like 2016 than 2017, specially the younger players- which we have more of. You can call it "improvement", but maybe it's more like "return to their norm".

There's also another big factor: returning players who did not play a full season last year. Maybe not all will be healthy and play a full season in 2018, and some are doubtful, but there is a long enough list to believe there will be a greater impact from these players in 2018 (of course others or some of these could be injured next year):

Price: 11 starts to 20 to 33.
Wright: 5 injury influenced starts to 20 to 33
(In fairness, ERod from 24 starts to 5 to 20)
(Also, Fister, Johnson, Velazquez & Kendrick from 25 starts to 0 to ???)

Carson Smith: 7 IP to maybe 57 IP
Brandon Workman: 40 IP to maybe 80 to 100 IP (as long relief guy)
Austin Maddox: 17 IP to maybe 47 or 57
Robby Scott: 36 IP to maybe 46 or 56
Robbie Ross: 9 IP to ???
Thornburg: 0 IP to ???

Devers: 58 games to 158 games (No Pablo or Rutledge)
Vaz: 99 games to 120 (Leon from 85 to 64)

These changes alone could easily outweigh any 2 free agent signings.

The 4 killer Bs hitting with a 2016 OPS instead of 2017 would be like adding a major FA.

[notin]

The Yankees finished with an ERA that was just .02 RPG worse than us, and they averaged nearly half a run per game more than us and 50 OPS points better than us. The Sox are comparable in pitching, but we lag in offense, primarily because our SLG was 14th in the AL. In order for us to compete with them next year we are going to have to add power to the lineup-or depend on the existing players to improve. We aren't that far off. But if improvements offensively are not made somehow its going to be a long season.

We were comparable in pitching without Price. If he comes back, he can certainly widen that gap.

Don't forget a big part of our pre-season expectations was having Price and Sale...

[moonslav59]

We were comparable in pitching without Price. If he comes back, he can certainly widen that gap.

Don't forget a big part of our pre-season expectations was having Price and Sale...

...and a healthy Wright to a lesser degree.

[sk7326]

We had a sell-off a couple times:

1) The AGon, CC, Beckett - Dodger deal
2) The free agents-to-be sell off of Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, A Miller and others.

The first one, I think Sox fans were 50-50 over.

The second one, fans are still going mental over.

None were under DD: both were under Ben.

The Yanks are being praised for their moves.

Ben is being roasted for his. (Note: Ben traded his vets for more established players, while Cashman traded for younger and more speculative valued talent, something many on this board frown upon.)

Because Cashman got better deals ... he got homeruns for Chapman and Miller. (it still made sense for the Cubs to make the deal, flags flying forever and such)

The Beckett/Crawford deal was actually fairly good for a salary dump ... neither De La Rosa nor Webster worked out ... but given the value of the assets at the time, that was a better return for a fire sale than you'd expect. The one undisputed homerun Cherington had in the selloffs was getting Eduardo Rodriguez for 2 months of Andrew Miller.

[sk7326]

I would not assume Beni will be a plus defender in CF or RF. I'm not going out on a limb to say, it would be a certain downgrade on defense to have Beni replace JBJ.

The upgrade in offense would be Ozuna vs JBJ. It looks like a clear plus for Ozuna, but the 2 years vs 3 years balances it up, in my opinion.

I doubt the Marlins would trade Ozuna for JBJ and a mid level prospect. They want to avoid pricey arb players. Maybe a three-team deal could be worked out, but I'm not sure i want to give up 3 years for 2 seemingly better ones. It would play more into the 2 year window theory. I think our window is more like 3 years.

Benintendi has to be better, but athletically he should be able to handle either at least at an above average level. Of course Betts is one of the fielders who could actually improve on Bradley at CF.

[moonslav59]

Because Cashman got better deals ... he got homeruns for Chapman and Miller. (it still made sense for the Cubs to make the deal, flags flying forever and such)

The Beckett/Crawford deal was actually fairly good for a salary dump ... neither De La Rosa nor Webster worked out ... but given the value of the assets at the time, that was a better return for a fire sale than you'd expect. The one undisputed homerun Cherington had in the selloffs was getting Eduardo Rodriguez for 2 months of Andrew Miller.

I agree.

I will say that the Dodger dump was a great deal. It wasn't about Webster and de la Rosa. It was about dumping CC and Beckett. AGon petered out afterwards, so even that dump was worth getting nothing in return but the spending space needed to sign Vic and Naps and a ring in 2013.

At the time of the 2nd sell-off, I had hoped we went more towards ML ready prospects (like ERod, Hembree & Escobar) than vets (like Cespedes, Kelly & Craig), and my hope was we'd re-sign Miller. We tried to play it "halfway" and that was my criticism then, too. The win in 2013 made it hard to continue being too critical, but we felt it afterwards.

Cashman has made some great deals in the past 3-4 years. No doubt better than Ben and DD.

[moonslav59]

Benintendi has to be better, but athletically he should be able to handle either at least at an above average level. Of course Betts is one of the fielders who could actually improve on Bradley at CF.

No matter how you shake it our, Beni is a defensive downgrade to JBJ.

If Betts plays CF, we lose big time in RF with Beni vs Betts.

If Beni plays CF, like I feel he is better than him playing in RF, we step down on D in CF, even if Beni ends up being above average on D in CF.

I'm not against trading JBJ, even though he is one of my favorite Sox players.

[sk7326]

I agree.

I will say that the Dodger dump was a great deal. It wasn't about Webster and de la Rosa. It was about dumping CC and Beckett. AGon petered out afterwards, so even that dump was worth getting nothing in return but the spending space needed to sign Vic and Naps and a ring in 2013.

At the time of the 2nd sell-off, I had hoped we went more towards ML ready prospects (like ERod, Hembree & Escobar) than vets (like Cespedes, Kelly & Craig), and my hope was we'd re-sign Miller. We tried to play it "halfway" and that was my criticism then, too. The win in 2013 made it hard to continue being too critical, but we felt it afterwards.

Cashman has made some great deals in the past 3-4 years. No doubt better than Ben and DD.

And to be fair, Napoli was a sensible pickup. Victorino was kind of a lousy idea ... which worked out a billion times better than anybody had the right to expect. Yeah he only gave 1 good year of a 3 year contract, but what a year it was!