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Thread: Yankees 2017-2018 Hot Stove

  1. #1

    Yankees 2017-2018 Hot Stove

    Very conflicted putting this post up right now. Sad my team won't be in the WS. Sad they couldn't muster anything against a career journeyman like Morton. Ecstatic that the rebuild is over and this team is locked and loaded for next season. In terms of where they stand...

    In terms of contracts..
    The Yankees have $112.7 mil on the books in contracts or dead money (this includes McCann).
    Ellsbury- $21.8 mil cap hit
    McCann $5.5 mil cap hit
    Tanaka- (if he doesn't opt out)- $22.14 mil cap hit
    Brett Gardner- $13 mil cap hit
    Chase Headley- $13 mil cap hit
    Starlin Castro- $8.57 mil cap hit
    Aroldis Chapman- $17.2 mil cap hit
    David Robertson- $11.5 mil cap hit

    The predicted arbitration numbers are
    •Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
    •Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
    •Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
    •Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
    •Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
    •Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
    •Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
    •Chasen Shreve (2.155) – $900K

    This $29.4 mil added to the $112.7 mil gets us to $142.1mil. The cap we must stay under is $197 mil and assuming we save $5 mil for in season callups, league minimum salaries or late season acquisitions, we have $50 mil to play with. This entails Tanaka NOT opting out. As it stands in this instance, the lineup without ANY additions is as follows

    C- Sanchez
    1B- Bird
    2B- Castro
    SS- Gregorius
    3B- Headley/Andujar
    LF- Gardner
    CF- Hicks/Ellsbury
    RF- Judge
    DH- Ellsbury/Headley/C. Frazier/Ellsbury

    SP1- Severino
    SP2- Gray
    SP3- Tanaka
    SP4- Montgomery
    SP5- Adams

    CL- Chapman
    SU-Robertson
    SU-Kahnle
    SU-Betances
    MR-Green
    MR-Warren
    MR-Shreve

    Assuming no trades (which is FAR from a reasonable assumption), the one area of clear need is DH. We have guys who could occupy this, but the DH market this year is saturated with no D hitters. The one I like the most for us is Carlos Santana. The guy sees a ton of pitches, walks a ton, hits for more power left handed, but puts up a better average right handed to negate the L/R split. He also plays a reasonable 1b which could give Bird the time at DH he may need to stay healthy long term. I don't expect Santana to be cheap, but he shouldn't break the bank like JD Martinez as he is not a transcendent hitter, but is a really good one. I think a reasonable contract for him is 3 years $42 mil or $14 mil AAV.

    That leaves us with about $36 mil to play with and elongates our lineup to
    Gardner
    Judge
    Gregorius
    Sanchez
    Bird
    Santana
    Castro
    Hicks
    Headley/Andujar

    I don't see a clear need in the pen and if Tanaka doesn't opt out, I think our rotation as is could be good enough to win a ton of ballgames and our pen is good enough to win some bad starts while we break in the rookie Adams (who has ace upside btw). The offense improves with more power and patience out of the DH spot and Bird gets the opportunity to split time between 1b and DH to stay fresh. We'd have a ready made replacement for most every position except catcher with a top prospect. Andujar for the CIF. Torres up the middle (as well as Wade and Estrada). Frazier for the OF. Acevedo and Sheffield for the rotation. Holder and a bunch of other guys for the pen. The team above is good enough to get to the playoffs, but I highly doubt we just pocket $36 mil and twiddle our thumbs with it. I also think there is next to no chance we don't improve our team via trade. We can eat money and still stay under the cap and we have the prospects to make any deal happen. So, watch for these five things in NY

    1. The GM and the manager. I honestly don't know how Stein could let Cash walk unless he is done. You give him a blank check and move on. Girardi should have had his fate sealed in game 2 of the ALDS, but his team had his back and won the series anyway. That shows a team responding for their manager, and you cannot beat that. Joe gets retained if he wants to stay

    2. A Starlin Castro trade- for those of you who love Theo, think about this. We got Starlin for Adam Warren. We got Chapman for literally nothing. We then re-obtained Warren in the Chapman deal. Then we re-signed Chapman without having to give up a draft pick. In the process, we got Billy McKinney, who has regained his fringe top 100 prospect status and obtained Gleyber Torres, who in most publications is either the top or one of the top 3 prospects in all of baseball. We spent money to get Chap and we got Castro and the Cubs have a title in a season we weren't winning anything, and otherwise literally no bodies still on their roster to show for it. Theo got his title, but Cash ate his lunch. I think this is the year we deal Castro. We have many ready made replacements on this roster. I think Cash got Castro as a buy low candidate and Castro rewarded us with a solid .300 BA, 16HR performance. It is also hard to believe that Castro is only 27 years old. His downsides from this year were a really high BABIP, a career high K% and continued sub par defense. I think Cash will take advantage of his high value right now and move him. I have no clue what he does. He could be a 3 way trade candidate to get a starter. He could be dealt for prospects. I don't know. But with Wade and Torres both ready for the show and Castro looking like a crash candidate for 2018, I would definitely be looking out for Cash to move him.

    3. Tanaka's opt out- Tanaka rebuilt his value in dominating the Astros and the Indians in crucial games. He had been an ace up to this year and outside of a 6 week stretch, he was still an ace. He has 3 years and $66 mil on his contract left. He is a splitter reliant pitcher now with the ability but not the consistency to run the ball up there into the mid 90s. I like him on his current contract. If Tanaka opts out, we say thank you for your service and sign Darvish.

    4. The small deals- Cashman is a master of dealing guys with promise who might not make our 40 man and hence be lost to the Rule V and turning them into guys who turn into prospects later. (Look at the deals for Pazos and Gamel for one). I anticipate that a few of our 40 man necessary big arms in the minors may need to be dealt or else we will see them go in the Rule V and stay gone.

    5. The big trade- this could be linked with the Castro deal, it might not be. We have cap room, prospects to spare, and no clear need beyond something that is readily available on this market (DH based offense). We also have high end relievers to deal as well, which are always hot commodities for teams nearing contention. We also don't know, beyond Stanton that is, which big players are actually on the market and with the way Cash deals, we likely won't know until the deal is consummated. I anticipate a significant trade occurring during the hot stove. Who they get, nobody knows, but we will get someone.

    As it stands, when you have a team that has money to spend, most of their holes filled and prospects galore, it usually means you are in a really good position going forward. The goal is to stay under the cap and remain competitive, and I definitely see us doing that. It is on Cash not to screw it up
    Last edited by jacksonianmarch; 10-22-2017 at 11:59 AM.
    The rebuild is complete.

  2. #2
    Good recap, but couldn't this go on one of the other Yankee threads?

  3. #3
    This is the hot stove thread. The ALCS thread should be done as itís over now

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    This is the hot stove thread. The ALCS thread should be done as itís over now
    I was thinking the "New York Yankee" thread started by examiner.

  5. #5
    Wrong spot and cmon now. If anyone is gonna start a Yankees hot stove thread, itís me

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Wrong spot and cmon now. If anyone is gonna start a Yankees hot stove thread, itís me
    Then maybe they should merge examiner's thread into yours.

    One Yankee thread about 2018 is enough on a Sox blog.

  7. #7
    Maybe I will make a Yankee thread.

    I'm a Sox fan so what harm would it do?

    Lighten up. This is Talksox where the Yankees are part of the conversation.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post
    Maybe I will make a Yankee thread.

    I'm a Sox fan so what harm would it do?

    Lighten up. This is Talksox where the Yankees are part of the conversation.
    I have no issues with Yankee fans on this site. I was just saying I think the two threads are too similar and should be combined.

  9. #9
    The thread started by examiner was mainly for the purpose of moaning and groaning about the Sox.

  10. #10
    It was a quality in depth post about the Yankees, in the Yankees section of the site. There is literally nothing in this post to complain about. Come on now.

  11. #11
    And I plan to keep posting in it...

    The Yankee 40 man struggle is real. Here are the guys slated to be on our 40 man and the guys we would need to add or risk losing to Rule V eligibility

    40 man
    1. Betances
    2. Chapman
    3. Gray
    4. Kahnle
    5. Green
    6. Montgomery
    7. Robertson
    8. Severino
    9. Tanaka
    10. Warren
    11. Cessa
    12. Gallegos
    13. German
    14. Heller
    15. Herrera
    16. Holder
    17. Mitchell
    18. Shreve
    19. C. Smith
    20. Higashioka
    21. Romine
    22. Sanchez
    23. Andujar
    24. Austin
    25. Castro
    26. Cooper
    27. Gregorius
    28. Headley
    29. Torreyes
    30. Wade
    31. Ellsbury
    32. Frazier
    33. Gardner
    34. Hicks
    35. Judge

    That leaves 5 slots without trades or DFA's.

    The guys we would have to protect or risk losing in the Rule V are as follows (and I am only listing guys who are possibilities to be added)

    Jake Cave OF
    Billy McKinney OF
    Stephen Tarpley LHP
    Mike Ford 1B
    Domingo Acevedo RHP
    Thairo Estrada SS
    JP Feyereisen RHP
    Nestor Cortes LHP
    Albert Abreu RHP
    Cale Coshow RHP
    Gosuke Katoh 2B
    Jonathan Loaisiga RHP

    That's 12 guys with legitimate big league futures who would need to be protected. The following guys are absolute no brainers
    Acevedo
    Estrada
    Abreu
    Loaisiga

    For that last spot, assuming no moves, I would choose Jake Cave. The guy can play CF and had a lights out season. My assumption, though, is that we make some moves prior to the deadline as I think the Yankees will try to keep Tarpley and McKinney as well.

    I anticipate that one spot will be opened with either a deal or DFA of Cooper or Austin. We have enough 1b redundancy with Bird and Andujar, we don't need a 3rd and 4th backup, especially when I think the Yankees add a DH capable of playing 1b

    I also expect the Yankees to deal Bryan Mitchell as he is out of options and doesn't really have a prayer to crack our bullpen unless we deal a few guys

    That would allow us to keep Tarpley and McKinney. We would still likely lose Coshow, but he is a 100mph arm without much to back it up (we have a lot of those). We'd probably also lose Feyereisen who is also a 100mph arm who has trouble with command. I doubt we lose Katoh, although it is possible. He's a solid talent but needs at least another 2 years of seasoning. Ford has no future here and is a MiLB FA come November if we don't add him to the 40 man, which I would say would be a stretch.
    The rebuild is complete.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    And I plan to keep posting in it...

    The Yankee 40 man struggle is real. Here are the guys slated to be on our 40 man and the guys we would need to add or risk losing to Rule V eligibility

    40 man
    1. Betances
    2. Chapman
    3. Gray
    4. Kahnle
    5. Green
    6. Montgomery
    7. Robertson
    8. Severino
    9. Tanaka
    10. Warren
    11. Cessa
    12. Gallegos
    13. German
    14. Heller
    15. Herrera
    16. Holder
    17. Mitchell
    18. Shreve
    19. C. Smith
    20. Higashioka
    21. Romine
    22. Sanchez
    23. Andujar
    24. Austin
    25. Castro
    26. Cooper
    27. Gregorius
    28. Headley
    29. Torreyes
    30. Wade
    31. Ellsbury
    32. Frazier
    33. Gardner
    34. Hicks
    35. Judge

    That leaves 5 slots without trades or DFA's.

    The guys we would have to protect or risk losing in the Rule V are as follows (and I am only listing guys who are possibilities to be added)

    Jake Cave OF
    Billy McKinney OF
    Stephen Tarpley LHP
    Mike Ford 1B
    Domingo Acevedo RHP
    Thairo Estrada SS
    JP Feyereisen RHP
    Nestor Cortes LHP
    Albert Abreu RHP
    Cale Coshow RHP
    Gosuke Katoh 2B
    Jonathan Loaisiga RHP

    That's 12 guys with legitimate big league futures who would need to be protected. The following guys are absolute no brainers
    Acevedo
    Estrada
    Abreu
    Loaisiga

    For that last spot, assuming no moves, I would choose Jake Cave. The guy can play CF and had a lights out season. My assumption, though, is that we make some moves prior to the deadline as I think the Yankees will try to keep Tarpley and McKinney as well.

    I anticipate that one spot will be opened with either a deal or DFA of Cooper or Austin. We have enough 1b redundancy with Bird and Andujar, we don't need a 3rd and 4th backup, especially when I think the Yankees add a DH capable of playing 1b

    I also expect the Yankees to deal Bryan Mitchell as he is out of options and doesn't really have a prayer to crack our bullpen unless we deal a few guys

    That would allow us to keep Tarpley and McKinney. We would still likely lose Coshow, but he is a 100mph arm without much to back it up (we have a lot of those). We'd probably also lose Feyereisen who is also a 100mph arm who has trouble with command. I doubt we lose Katoh, although it is possible. He's a solid talent but needs at least another 2 years of seasoning. Ford has no future here and is a MiLB FA come November if we don't add him to the 40 man, which I would say would be a stretch.
    You guys need a DH and have plenty of money to spend.

    We'll give you HRam and Rusnet Castillo for 3-4 of these guys.

    (LOL)

  13. #13
    I think I will pass, lol.

    I also wouldn't be surprised at all if we see some deals either. I expect German, Gallegos or Heller to be moved for a couple lower level prospects. Cashman is the master of these types of moves
    The rebuild is complete.

  14. #14
    I also forgot to mention that NYY will likely be considered one of the projected landing spots for Otani who could fill the DH void and the 5th SP void if he were to sign
    The rebuild is complete.

  15. #15
    Trade Ellsbury and cash to the M's.

    See if the Cardinals or someone else will overpay for Dellin.

    Trade Castro.

    Sign Ohtani.

    Let Cashman work his trade magic.

    I'd see if CC wants to come back for 1 year 8 million and Fraizer for 1 year 3.5 million.

    I'd also dangle Warren and Gardner, but for a high price tag.

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