Yankees 2017-2018 Hot Stove

[jacksonianmarch]

Very conflicted putting this post up right now. Sad my team won't be in the WS. Sad they couldn't muster anything against a career journeyman like Morton. Ecstatic that the rebuild is over and this team is locked and loaded for next season. In terms of where they stand...

In terms of contracts..
The Yankees have $112.7 mil on the books in contracts or dead money (this includes McCann).
Ellsbury- $21.8 mil cap hit
McCann $5.5 mil cap hit
Tanaka- (if he doesn't opt out)- $22.14 mil cap hit
Brett Gardner- $13 mil cap hit
Chase Headley- $13 mil cap hit
Starlin Castro- $8.57 mil cap hit
Aroldis Chapman- $17.2 mil cap hit
David Robertson- $11.5 mil cap hit

The predicted arbitration numbers are
•Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
•Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
•Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
•Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
•Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
•Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
•Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
•Chasen Shreve (2.155) – $900K

This $29.4 mil added to the $112.7 mil gets us to $142.1mil. The cap we must stay under is $197 mil and assuming we save $5 mil for in season callups, league minimum salaries or late season acquisitions, we have $50 mil to play with. This entails Tanaka NOT opting out. As it stands in this instance, the lineup without ANY additions is as follows

C- Sanchez
1B- Bird
2B- Castro
SS- Gregorius
3B- Headley/Andujar
LF- Gardner
CF- Hicks/Ellsbury
RF- Judge
DH- Ellsbury/Headley/C. Frazier/Ellsbury

SP1- Severino
SP2- Gray
SP3- Tanaka
SP4- Montgomery
SP5- Adams

CL- Chapman
SU-Robertson
SU-Kahnle
SU-Betances
MR-Green
MR-Warren
MR-Shreve

Assuming no trades (which is FAR from a reasonable assumption), the one area of clear need is DH. We have guys who could occupy this, but the DH market this year is saturated with no D hitters. The one I like the most for us is Carlos Santana. The guy sees a ton of pitches, walks a ton, hits for more power left handed, but puts up a better average right handed to negate the L/R split. He also plays a reasonable 1b which could give Bird the time at DH he may need to stay healthy long term. I don't expect Santana to be cheap, but he shouldn't break the bank like JD Martinez as he is not a transcendent hitter, but is a really good one. I think a reasonable contract for him is 3 years $42 mil or $14 mil AAV.

That leaves us with about $36 mil to play with and elongates our lineup to
Gardner
Judge
Gregorius
Sanchez
Bird
Santana
Castro
Hicks
Headley/Andujar

I don't see a clear need in the pen and if Tanaka doesn't opt out, I think our rotation as is could be good enough to win a ton of ballgames and our pen is good enough to win some bad starts while we break in the rookie Adams (who has ace upside btw). The offense improves with more power and patience out of the DH spot and Bird gets the opportunity to split time between 1b and DH to stay fresh. We'd have a ready made replacement for most every position except catcher with a top prospect. Andujar for the CIF. Torres up the middle (as well as Wade and Estrada). Frazier for the OF. Acevedo and Sheffield for the rotation. Holder and a bunch of other guys for the pen. The team above is good enough to get to the playoffs, but I highly doubt we just pocket $36 mil and twiddle our thumbs with it. I also think there is next to no chance we don't improve our team via trade. We can eat money and still stay under the cap and we have the prospects to make any deal happen. So, watch for these five things in NY

1. The GM and the manager. I honestly don't know how Stein could let Cash walk unless he is done. You give him a blank check and move on. Girardi should have had his fate sealed in game 2 of the ALDS, but his team had his back and won the series anyway. That shows a team responding for their manager, and you cannot beat that. Joe gets retained if he wants to stay

2. A Starlin Castro trade- for those of you who love Theo, think about this. We got Starlin for Adam Warren. We got Chapman for literally nothing. We then re-obtained Warren in the Chapman deal. Then we re-signed Chapman without having to give up a draft pick. In the process, we got Billy McKinney, who has regained his fringe top 100 prospect status and obtained Gleyber Torres, who in most publications is either the top or one of the top 3 prospects in all of baseball. We spent money to get Chap and we got Castro and the Cubs have a title in a season we weren't winning anything, and otherwise literally no bodies still on their roster to show for it. Theo got his title, but Cash ate his lunch. I think this is the year we deal Castro. We have many ready made replacements on this roster. I think Cash got Castro as a buy low candidate and Castro rewarded us with a solid .300 BA, 16HR performance. It is also hard to believe that Castro is only 27 years old. His downsides from this year were a really high BABIP, a career high K% and continued sub par defense. I think Cash will take advantage of his high value right now and move him. I have no clue what he does. He could be a 3 way trade candidate to get a starter. He could be dealt for prospects. I don't know. But with Wade and Torres both ready for the show and Castro looking like a crash candidate for 2018, I would definitely be looking out for Cash to move him.

3. Tanaka's opt out- Tanaka rebuilt his value in dominating the Astros and the Indians in crucial games. He had been an ace up to this year and outside of a 6 week stretch, he was still an ace. He has 3 years and $66 mil on his contract left. He is a splitter reliant pitcher now with the ability but not the consistency to run the ball up there into the mid 90s. I like him on his current contract. If Tanaka opts out, we say thank you for your service and sign Darvish.

4. The small deals- Cashman is a master of dealing guys with promise who might not make our 40 man and hence be lost to the Rule V and turning them into guys who turn into prospects later. (Look at the deals for Pazos and Gamel for one). I anticipate that a few of our 40 man necessary big arms in the minors may need to be dealt or else we will see them go in the Rule V and stay gone.

5. The big trade- this could be linked with the Castro deal, it might not be. We have cap room, prospects to spare, and no clear need beyond something that is readily available on this market (DH based offense). We also have high end relievers to deal as well, which are always hot commodities for teams nearing contention. We also don't know, beyond Stanton that is, which big players are actually on the market and with the way Cash deals, we likely won't know until the deal is consummated. I anticipate a significant trade occurring during the hot stove. Who they get, nobody knows, but we will get someone.

As it stands, when you have a team that has money to spend, most of their holes filled and prospects galore, it usually means you are in a really good position going forward. The goal is to stay under the cap and remain competitive, and I definitely see us doing that. It is on Cash not to screw it up