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Thread: 2018 Yankees Season thread

  1. #1

    2018 Yankees Season thread

    The hot stove is still rolling, but the Yankees are said to have exited the Cole negotiations as they wouldn't accept anything without Gleyber and there wasn't really any fire to the smoke of the Machado rumors. Unless something falls into their laps, the Yankees are okay with rolling the way they are. There is clearly a shot at signing Frazier or Moustakas if their price tags drop considerably, but considering that we might be done, here are some numbers on the guys currently in the lineup.

    1. Brett Gardner. Gardner can expect to spend some time in LF, CF and some at DH to rest his legs. His days of a 40 SB speedster are over, but as Johnny Damon did, he has swapped out the speed for power. He still swiped 23 bases last year and he hit a career high 21HR. He's reached 16HR 3 of the last 4 seasons as well. Gardy will be 34 when the season starts and turns 35 in August, so he is no spring chicken. His line from 2017 was very good for him at .264/.350/.428 and he put up 4.9WAR (ESPN) based on resurgent defensive marks in LF. It is clearly possible that Gardner regresses as he is beyond his prime, although his late career power has added to his OPS capabilities. I still think his speed should allow him to steal 20-25 bases as he has in all but 1 full season in his career. I also think the power will probably continue in the 15-20HR range as he has added pop as he aged. He's been a .264 career hitter and has hit within 10 points of that the last 8 seasons (excluding his missed season of 2012). His fangraphs projection is .252/.341/.425 with 15HRs. That's pretty reasonable, although maybe slightly pessimistic on the HR front. Either way, I'd take it. My prediction .255/.345/.425 with 18HR, 20SBs

    2. Aaron Judge. Judge is probably going to play a mishmash of LF, RF and DH. Boone has even said he could play CF, although I'd expect that in less than 10 games. Judge is a colossal power hitter. His season from last year was .284/.422/.627 with 52HR and 9 steals. He is surprisingly athletic as evidenced by his +7UZR/150 and 9 steals on the year. Fangraphs has a confusing projection of .254/.369/.518 with 37HR and 7 steals. If Judge hits .254, he will hit 40+HR's and if he hits .254, I'd expect his walk totals to be obscene, likely pushing his OBP closer to .400. Judge proved last year that his power is special and aside from maybe Stanton, is the best in the game. Also, in the playoffs, the umpires were effectively convinced to call the real strike zone starting in the ALCS. Now that Judge is no longer a rookie and has entrenched himself as the face of the MLB, I assume he will get some better treatment in the strike zone. That being said, a .370BABIP likely isn't going to continue, but his barrel rate (best in baseball) should at least keep it over .300. I do think the K% drops down a few percentage points (he was around 25% in the minors) but he'll never be a big contact guy. I highly doubt he adds to his rookie year, but I don't think he drops down too far. My prediction .265/.400/.580 45HR 10SB

    3. Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is probably going to play LF, RF and DH in NYY. Stanton has been the pre-eminent power hitter in baseball and now he moves to a park where HR's are easier to hit in half his games (not to mention playing in BOS, BAL, and TOR 27 total times rather than NYM, ATL, and WAS). He is also being added to a prolific lineup that is better than the one he left. Stanton will have guys on base and will have protection behind him. His 2017 line was insane at .281/.376/.631 with 59HR and 2SBs. His fangraphs projection is nearly the same at .283/.376/.640 with 55HR and 3SB. One must also process that going from obscurity to NY isn't easy. I don't think 2018 is the year Stanton cracks 60+HR (that'll be 2019), but I do expect him to be a fearsome hitter. My prediction .265/.360/.600 48HR

    4. Gary Sanchez. Sanchez will be catching likely 110 games or so and DH'ing a fair amount after that. After a blistering 2 months in 2016 that nearly nabbed him a ROY, Sanchez didn't disappoint offensively smacking 33HR. The thing that most people don't realize is that Sanchez only played 122 games as he missed a month with a bicep strain. He just turned 25, so he is just entering his prime age as well. If he didn't miss that time, he'd have slugged 40HRs. His 2017 line was .278/.345/.531 with 33HR and 2SB. His fangraphs projection is a bit puzzling. They have him at .269/.334/.515 with 30HR. I am wondering why they think he will decline entering his age 25 season and I am wondering why they don't think a healthy Sanchez could surpass his 2017 total? Sanchez was more of a contact hitter in the minors than he was last season and I anticipate that he makes a bit more contact as he matures, hence I think his BA can rise. His BA wasn't incredibly lucky in 2017 (.307BABIP) so a big drop would be better on his luck turning rather than anything else. I think he will hit more balls out of the park and put more balls in play, hence I think his BA can rise modestly. Either way, I think Sanchez builds off 2017 and improves. My prediction .285/.360/.550 with 38HR

    5. Greg Bird. Bird will be our every day 1b. Bird is finally healthy and he proved in September and October that he isn't to be forgotten in this lineup. His 2017 line was entirely terrible (.190/.288/.422) but his track record and finish to 2017 points to something much more. Fangraphs has him at .255/.345/.496 with 30HR. I would take that any day of the week. Although I feel a healthy Bird in this lineup playing half his games in Yankee Stadium might see some more helium in the HR totals. Also, the fangraphs numbers point away from one thing Bird showed in his minor league time, and that is a knack for ridiculously high OBP's. In this lineup, Bird will see balls to deposit, but he will also walk a ton. I am bullish on Bird here, assuming he can be healthy. My prediction .260/.380/.500 with 35HR

    6. Didi Gregorius. Didi will be our SS for 2017. Most people don't remember that Didi missed 5 weeks of the season and still set the single season HR record for the Yankee franchise. His 2017 line was really good at .287/.318/.478. His left handed swing is perfect for NY stadium as he has a knack for pulling fly balls into the seats. Fangraphs has him at .270/.315/.436 with 21HR. I think the power might be a bit light as he hit 25HR in 136 games last year, but not by much. My prediction .275/.315/.470 with 27HR

    7. Aaron Hicks. Hicks will be in the lineup as a CFer exclusively when he plays. Hicks missed time with an oblique twice and was limited to 88 games, but what an 88 games it was. He put up a .266/.372/.475 line with 15HR and 10SB. Hicks fangraphs predicts .253/.341/.425 with 19HR and 12SB. I'd absolutely take that, although his 2017 performance points to a more upper 20s HR total, who knows if he can stay healthy enough to see the field enough to hit those out. Hicks devours lefties (.900+ OPS) but for once in his career, he actually hit well vs righties (.800ish OPS). I honestly have no idea which Hicks will show. Will it be the guy who was on pace for a 6WAR season if he didn't miss time, or is it the underachieving former top prospect he was before he blossomed last season. I think it is going to be a blend. While I don't think he is an .850OPS player, I do think a near .800OPS is safer here. My prediction .250/.350/.450 with 22HR and 18SB

    That's a prediction on my end of 233HR for the top 7 in the lineup. As for the final two spots...
    Last edited by jacksonianmarch; 01-09-2018 at 02:11 PM.
    The rebuild is complete.

  2. #2
    Third base- If the Yankees do not sign a FA, the job is Miguel Andujar's out of the gate. This kid can rake. He was 22 for the entirety of last year and slashed .315/.352/.498 between AA and AAA with a 30 point OPS jump when he went to AAA. He also hit 16HR and 36 doubles in 125 games. The interesting thing about Andujar is that he is not your typical slugger. He is a high average, low strikeout, low walk type hitter who can barrel the ball very well. His BABIP in the minors this past year was higher than his typical, although his power did arrive and will likely continue as he grows into his body. He is not a plus defender, probably more a mild minus than average at this point. He's not known to be a terrible 3b, just not a good one. Regardless, if he earns the job and gets run, he could be a 20HR hitter out of the gate with 25HR potential or greater as he progresses. I think he can eventually be a .300 hitter as well. That being said, he is a rookie, so predicting how he starts out at 23 isn't reasonable

    Secondbase- The job will eventually be Gleyber Torres'. Gleyber is a top 3 prospect in baseball for a reason. He just turned 21 yrs old, yet as a 20 year old he was tearing the cover off the ball in AAA before injuring his non throwing elbow. He is a plus defender with good contact skills, growing power and advanced patience who looks to be one of the next superstars in the game. He also has above average speed and figures to steal 15-20 bases a season in his 20s. If he gets the keys out of the gate, he could put up a ROY type season. Gleyber's potential is a .300 hitter with 20-25HR and a high .300s to near .400 OBP. As a 21 yr old, who knows how he will start out. Then again, I don't think he starts out in the majors in 2018. He is coming off TJS of his non throwing arm and I think that will be enough to start him in AAA to get hot then promote him in May. Also, by doing this, they delay his clock enough to control him for one more season. In the interim, I think Tyler Wade starts 2018 as the Yankees 2b. Wade is no slouch either. He just turned 23 and put up impressive AAA numbers as a 22 yr old before a cup of coffee in 2018. He put up a .310/.386/.460 season in 85 games before his promotion but played sparingly and was overmatched in the majors. Wade's calling card is defense, patience and plus speed. He stole 26 bags in those 85 games and is a true 40SB threat. Things could get interesting if Wade starts off 2018 well and Gleyber's clock gets ticked back. Either way, a good problem to have for sure
    The rebuild is complete.

  3. #3
    Exciting lineup. Of course no team's lineup is ever fully intact over the course of an entire season. But I think one of the overlooked parts of the Yankees is that they have good depth in the form of MLB ready top prospects. For 2018 ZiPS projects the Yankees to have an MLB most 27 players who are +1 WAR or greater (next highest is Brewers with 25). 1 WAR isn't great, but to have that many players above replacement level on a roster is kinda ridiculous.

  4. #4
    2015 Yankees Season thread started April 2/15
    2016 Yankees Season thread started March 12/16
    2017 Yankees Season thread started Feb 5/17
    2018 Yankees Season thread started Jan 9/18


  5. #5
    Only 10 months until the 2019 thread opens

  6. #6
    I usually post it when I think Cash is done. I think heís done in all honesty. Moves arenít happening right now as too many teams are in it. Those who are selling arenít reasonable in their prices. And it isnít like we have a glaring hole. We have two open lineup spots and two top 75 prospects to fill them with.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by bkzwhitestrican View Post
    Exciting lineup. Of course no team's lineup is ever fully intact over the course of an entire season. But I think one of the overlooked parts of the Yankees is that they have good depth in the form of MLB ready top prospects. For 2018 ZiPS projects the Yankees to have an MLB most 27 players who are +1 WAR or greater (next highest is Brewers with 25). 1 WAR isn't great, but to have that many players above replacement level on a roster is kinda ridiculous.
    Yeah, the Red Sox had that type of projection a few years ago, 2014 maybe?

    Just sayin'.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    2015 Yankees Season thread started April 2/15
    2016 Yankees Season thread started March 12/16
    2017 Yankees Season thread started Feb 5/17
    2018 Yankees Season thread started Jan 9/18

    LOL Bell.

  9. #9
    In all seriousness, and I've posted this before regarding my Red Sox, it's one thing to depend on one rookie to fill a key position for the entire season. It's another thing to depend on two rookies to fill two key positions. It might work out okay, but it's taking on a lot of risk and uncertainty.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    In all seriousness, and I've posted this before regarding my Red Sox, it's one thing to depend on one rookie to fill a key position for the entire season. It's another thing to depend on two rookies to fill two key positions. It might work out okay, but it's taking on a lot of risk and uncertainty.
    Common sense is not a component of The Chart.
    "Hating the Yankees like it's a religion since 94'" RIP Mike.


    "It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."

  11. #11
    I agree Kimmi, but this is the season to do it. We have such a deep 1-7 in this lineup and we have the backups for 1-7 that can step in and at least produce (beyond C btw). I bet that is what Cash is thinking, but right now, our 1-7 can hit over 200HR on their own. This lineup will be so dominant, especially if they stay healthy, that we can bring along two kids at a time. Plus, these kids aren't offensive slouches either. We shall see. Before we got Stanton, I thought we needed another bat in order to carry the kids. Now, I think we can do it. And if they prove they aren't ready, we can just deal midseason and get a 3b with some pop
    The rebuild is complete.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    I agree Kimmi, but this is the season to do it. We have such a deep 1-7 in this lineup and we have the backups for 1-7 that can step in and at least produce (beyond C btw). I bet that is what Cash is thinking, but right now, our 1-7 can hit over 200HR on their own. This lineup will be so dominant, especially if they stay healthy, that we can bring along two kids at a time. Plus, these kids aren't offensive slouches either. We shall see. Before we got Stanton, I thought we needed another bat in order to carry the kids. Now, I think we can do it. And if they prove they aren't ready, we can just deal midseason and get a 3b with some pop
    I agree that this year is probably as good a year as any to try to break in two rookies. That said, you also seem to be assuming that everyone on the team is going to perform at or above your expectations. Not likely to happen.

  13. #13
    Iím predicting pullbacks from the two titans. Gardner and Hicks will be intriguing as one has age issues and the other productivity issues. Aside from a big injury, this lineup will crush.

  14. #14
    Yanks in hard on Darvish. I wonder if an Ellsbury or KRob trade are in the offing.

  15. #15
    I feel like the Yankees aren't actually serious about getting Darvish. Maybe just trying to push up the price for Houston.

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