Stanton or Votto

[dustcover]

Who would be preferable as an acquisition, 34 year-old Votto for $20M over the next 7 seasons or 27 year-old Stanton for an average of $30 million per season over the next 10 seasons assuming he doesn't opt out after 2020.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml

 

Getting around Stanton's record-sized contract (13 years, $325 million) is something else entirely. He's only in the third season of it, and the big money has yet to come:

Year Age Salary

2018 28 $25,000,000

2019 29 $26,000,000

2020 30 $26,000,000

2021 31 $29,000,000

2022 32 $29,000,000

2023 33 $32,000,000

2024 34 $32,000,000

2025 35 $32,000,000

2026 36 $29,000,000

2027 37 $25,000,000

2028 38 $25M Option, $10M Buyout

 

That's a total of $295 million spread out over 10 years with the buyout. It's less daunting than $325 million, sure, but still $20 million more than MLB's second-richest contract: Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275 million pact from 2007.

 

Stanton's deal also includes full no-trade protection and an opt-out after 2020, which makes the deal massive, awkwardly shaped and thus not an easy thing to transfer from one set of hands to another.

[harmony]

Neither is a reasonable target for the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

With Stanton, the money is doable for the Sox. It all depends how much talent the Marlins want in return.

[sk7326]

Stanton - though his past durability issues give serious pause. While Votto PROBABLY will be a useful hitter for another 3 seasons (and maybe more due to his approach) that is hard to swallow.

[Examiner]

I've watched Votto a lot, following the Reds like I do. The only thing I can say against him is that sometimes he has stretches where he gets in his own head and goes into a funk. He's not nearly as bad about that as he used to be though, may not be an issue.

[oldtimer]

Neither is a reasonable target for the Red Sox.

 

Agreed.

[Station 13]

Votto has a no trade, he seems to not like the spotlight and won't waive the no trade.

[notin]

Votto has a no trade, he seems to not like the spotlight and won't waive the no trade.

 

Stanton also has a no trade clause...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Stanton wants out, wants to play for a contender. There is no evidence that Votto wants out.

 

I would rather have Stanton, he is younger than Votto, but I'm skeptical the Red Sox can acquire him without giving up something like Devers or Beinintendi. Will the Marlins really move Stanton as a salary dump? If yes, I'm all in. If not, the Red Sox don't have the minor talent to acquire him.

[sk7326]

I've watched Votto a lot, following the Reds like I do. The only thing I can say against him is that sometimes he has stretches where he gets in his own head and goes into a funk. He's not nearly as bad about that as he used to be though, may not be an issue.

 

Votto is probably the best pure hitter in the league - combining power, production and being able to take good at bats

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Votto is probably the best pure hitter in the league - combining power, production and being able to take good at bats

 

But for how much longer? He is now 34 years old.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton can be had for prospects and salary relief. A big market club might not like the contract, but the fact that it saves $45 mil over those 10 seasons in lux tax accounting is big as well. Yes, they're actually paying him $29.5 mil per year for 10 years, but for lux tax purposes, it is down to $25 mil, which could be a big deal assuming he doesn't opt out. The problem with the sox, though, is I don't think they have the prospects to get a deal for Stanton done. Stanton's contract essentially drops his return assuming the Marlins want complete salary relief. Devers or Beni would be an insane overpay. If I were Boston, I'd try to go with Bradley plus Groome and Chavis. This would give the Marlins salary relief and the ability to flip Bradley for more prospects. Edited October 23, 2017 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

Stanton can be had for prospects and salary relief. A big market club might not like the contract, but the fact that it saves $45 mil over those 10 seasons in lux tax accounting is big as well. Yes, they're actually paying him $29.5 mil per year for 10 years, but for lux tax purposes, it is down to $25 mil, which could be a big deal assuming he doesn't opt out. The problem with the sox, though, is I don't think they have the prospects to get a deal for Stanton done. Stanton's contract essentially drops his return assuming the Marlins want complete salary relief. Devers or Beni would be an insane overpay. If I were Boston, I'd try to go with Bradley plus Groome and Chavis. This would give the Marlins salary relief and the ability to flip Bradley for more prospects.

 

My guess is nobody offers more than JBJ, Groome and Chavis, so I'd start with an offer of Groome, Chavis, Beeks & Haley. Maybe we can add Castillo or HRam to lessen the salary hit. (We could pay some of their salary.) We'd then have to give more...

 

HRam, JBJ, Groome, Chavis, Beeks and Flores for Stanton.

 

We'd actually save money in 2018 as HRam and JBJ will make more than Stanton, and we'd save on the luxury tax. This would allow us to get Stanton plus one from JD Martinez or Mustakas and a guy like Duda, Cobb or even Cozart.

 

I realize the marlins want to cut $25M in 2018, and this does not help, but they could flip JBJ and maybe dump HRam for a partial loss.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Dumping HRam coming off shoulder surgery before the season would have to be a complete loss. And I think you are downplaying what Stanton's market will be. There will be plenty of teams interested, the question is, how much salary will Jeter eat to get the maximum return?

[moonslav59]

Dumping HRam coming off shoulder surgery before the season would have to be a complete loss. And I think you are downplaying what Stanton's market will be. There will be plenty of teams interested, the question is, how much salary will Jeter eat to get the maximum return?

 

Stanton's salary will keep many teams away, and it is known to everyone the Marlins are looking to dump $25M next year.

 

I could be wrong on my estimate of what it will take to get Stanton, and the Sox can afford to take on 100% of Stanton's salary. I just mentioned HRam as a possibility, and I'd add more prospects, if they took him. (I don't think he's a total loss of 2018.)

 

I'd be willing to offer more than JBJ, Chavis and Groome, but I doubt it takes more.

 

My guess is Jeter might look more long term, like a 5 year plan, and might be more interested in Mata, Scherff and Flores than Chavis and/or JBJ.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moon, Jeter cannot deal off Stanton and get a lottery ticket. He'd need either big league talent or blue chip talent. I doubt he'd be terribly interested in guys who are multiple years away at least as a headliner.

[moonslav59]

Moon, Jeter cannot deal off Stanton and get a lottery ticket. He'd need either big league talent or blue chip talent. I doubt he'd be terribly interested in guys who are multiple years away at least as a headliner.

 

Why can't he? He might lose all 4 fans he has now?

 

Marlin fans are used to cleaning house.

 

Jeter will take the best package offered that fits into his plan and timetable. I seriously doubt he's looking to compete in 2018. To me, the question is more about wanting prospects projected to be ML ready by 2019ish (Chavis, Beeks, Houck or Shawaryn) of by 2021ish (Groome, Mata, Flores, Scherff or Brannen). He may want a mix.

 

If he gets JBJ, he'll flip him before 2018 anyways.

 

The death of Fernandez ruined any chance the Marlins had with such a limited budget. Jeter knows that and will plan to have a team "come together" by a certain year. He's not dumb.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

No, he isn't. But getting players like Scherff aren't going to help his prospects as those players are freshly drafted and haven't really separated themselves yet. When you deal a guy like Stanton, you get blue chip prospects.

[moonslav59]

No, he isn't. But getting players like Scherff aren't going to help his prospects as those players are freshly drafted and haven't really separated themselves yet. When you deal a guy like Stanton, you get blue chip prospects.

 

JBJ or Bogey could be traded for a blue chip prospect (or two) that has separated himself already, then sent to Miami. Add 2-3 from Groome, Chavis, Mata, Houck and Flores and I think the Marlins say yes. Maybe someone else offers better. Like I said, I could be wrong on what it takes, but Stanton's salary puts a huge hurt on whoever gets him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Groome and Chavis are given. I also think you will have to send a big leaguer who they could either keep for a season and rebuild their value or deal on their own and get more prospects.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

JBJ or Bogey could be traded for a blue chip prospect (or two) that has separated himself already, then sent to Miami. Add 2-3 from Groome, Chavis, Mata, Houck and Flores and I think the Marlins say yes. Maybe someone else offers better. Like I said, I could be wrong on what it takes, but Stanton's salary puts a huge hurt on whoever gets him.

 

I agree that Bradley could be traded for a blue chip especially in today's run prevention environment. But I disagree on Bogaerts. Right now, Bogaerts is a broken player. He may recover, he may not, but his trade value will reflect the fact that his future production is pretty uncertain. To top it off, he will be a free agent in a few years (limited team control) and he sucks at fielding. If he doesn't hit, he isn't all that useful and I'm not sure about his bat. Some guys don't recover--A.Craig was a pretty good offensive player who never recovered. There are more examples.

 

You either trade Bogaerts when his trade value is way down or you hold on to Bogaerts and hope he can fulfill some of his offensive potential. The latter course of action makes more sense IMO.

 

Dombrowski has made a lot of mistakes. I think the Sale deal is going to be a real killer in a few years. The Red Sox are going to need a starting 2b very soon, maybe as early as next season and Moncada could be 30-30 player (with a lot of strikeouts). I also think Kopech is going to be an ace. I don't want Dombrowski emptying out the farm system beyond what he has already done. Sure, trade for Stanton if the Marlins asking price is low; otherwise, live with what you have and sign M.Machado after the season.

Edited October 23, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I agree that Bradley could be traded for a blue chip especially in today's run prevention environment. But I disagree on Bogaerts. Right now, Bogaerts is a broken player. He may recover, he may not, but his trade value will reflect the fact that his future production is pretty uncertain. To top it off, he will be a free agent in a few years (limited team control) and he sucks at fielding. If he doesn't hit, he isn't all that useful and I'm not sure about his bat. Some guys don't recover--A.Craig was a pretty good offensive player who never recovered. There are more examples.

 

You either trade Bogaerts when his trade value is way down or you hold on to Bogaerts and hope he can fulfill some of his offensive potential. The latter course of action makes more sense IMO.

 

Dombrowski has made a lot of mistakes. I think the Sale deal is going to be a real killer in a few years. The Red Sox are going to need a starting 2b very soon, maybe as early as next season and Moncada could be 30-30 player (with a lot of strikeouts). I also think Kopech is going to be an ace. I don't want Dombrowski emptying out the farm system beyond what he has already done. Sure, trade for Stanton if the Marlins asking price is low; otherwise, live with what you have and sign M.Machado after the season.

 

Bogey has the 4th highest SS WAR over the last 3 years combined.

 

GMs do not significantly devalue a player of his age due to one "off year" that may have been affected by an injury. Bogey would likely bring more than a blue chipper. He has 2 arb years left and many teams could use an upgrade at SS.

 

Waiting for 2019 wastes one of the years left in "the window".

[moonslav59]

I think Groome and Chavis are given. I also think you will have to send a big leaguer who they could either keep for a season and rebuild their value or deal on their own and get more prospects.

 

Again, why waste a year's value of a vet for one year, when they will not be competing?

 

No extra fans will come, because JBJ is playing for a year before being traded.

 

Any vet they get should be flipped immediately, of a 3 team trade can be organized.

 

I'm not sure about what Jeter will be looking for: ML ready prospects, 2-4 years away prospects or both. I seriously doubt he looks for a player that is a star already, unless it's someone like Beni who can be part of a 3-5 year plan.

 

JBJ and Bogey will be free agents by the time the Marlins could conceivably be contenders.

 

[Spudboy]

Trading Bogey makes no f***ing sense.

 

He is what he is at SS which is decent with limited range going to his left. I can live with that.

 

Unlike last year when he started to slide offensively after the break and then for the most part started to hit again, this year his wrist injury was likely holding him back.

 

Saying he sucks or that he can and should be replaced by another SS that has terminal problems at the plate is just stupid. Do any of you guys remember the revolving door

 

when Nomar was dealt? You want to go through that s*** again? Dumb.

 

I fully expect Bogey to get back to being a .300 hitter next season if his wrist / hand issues are not a problem.

 

As dumb an idea it is to trade Bogey, I would trade any position player on this team not named Betts if it involved getting Stanton ( or another premium player ).

[Jack Flap]

Neither is a reasonable target for the Red Sox.

 

Agree. I don't see us landing either one.

[Nick]

Dumping HRam coming off shoulder surgery before the season would have to be a complete loss. And I think you are downplaying what Stanton's market will be. There will be plenty of teams interested, the question is, how much salary will Jeter eat to get the maximum return?

 

None

[Nick]

Trading Bogey makes no f***ing sense.

 

He is what he is at SS which is decent with limited range going to his left. I can live with that.

 

Unlike last year when he started to slide offensively after the break and then for the most part started to hit again, this year his wrist injury was likely holding him back.

 

Saying he sucks or that he can and should be replaced by another SS that has terminal problems at the plate is just stupid. Do any of you guys remember the revolving door

 

when Nomar was dealt? You want to go through that s*** again? Dumb.

 

I fully expect Bogey to get back to being a .300 hitter next season if his wrist / hand issues are not a problem.

 

As dumb an idea it is to trade Bogey, I would trade any position player on this team not named Betts if it involved getting Stanton ( or another premium player ).

 

Nobody wants Bogey. He's already in his 2nd year of arbitration. Sox will NOT get anything in value. Similar to Pedey. You couldn't even give Pedey away without even NOT getting a player in return. THINK ABOUT THAT!

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody wants Bogey. He's already in his 2nd year of arbitration. Sox will NOT get anything in value. Similar to Pedey. You couldn't even give Pedey away without even NOT getting a player in return. THINK ABOUT THAT!

 

Of course you're not getting anything for Pedroia right now. He's 34 and he's contemplating knee surgery. Doesn't mean it's been a bad contract.

[harmony]

Nobody wants Bogey. He's already in his 2nd year of arbitration. Sox will NOT get anything in value. Similar to Pedey. You couldn't even give Pedey away without even NOT getting a player in return. THINK ABOUT THAT!

Xander Bogaerts may well have diminished trade value after a somewhat disappointing season but the 25-year-old shortstop certainly has trade value after posting a combined 12.5 fWAR the past three years.

[moonslav59]

Trading Bogey makes no f***ing sense.

 

He is what he is at SS which is decent with limited range going to his left. I can live with that.

 

Unlike last year when he started to slide offensively after the break and then for the most part started to hit again, this year his wrist injury was likely holding him back.

 

Saying he sucks or that he can and should be replaced by another SS that has terminal problems at the plate is just stupid. Do any of you guys remember the revolving door

 

when Nomar was dealt? You want to go through that s*** again? Dumb.

 

I fully expect Bogey to get back to being a .300 hitter next season if his wrist / hand issues are not a problem.

 

As dumb an idea it is to trade Bogey, I would trade any position player on this team not named Betts if it involved getting Stanton ( or another premium player ).

 

If we trade Bogey for prospects need to get Stanton. My idea is not to replace him with Lin/Marrero/Hernandez. I'd sign Cozart and Duda.

 

I'm not "for" trading Bogey, but if that's what it takes to get Stanton, then I'd strongly consider it.

 

Since Stanton plays the OF, trading JBJ and his 3 years of control would probably bring back better prospects than Bogey's 2 years of control, so that may make more sense.