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Thread: The Case for signing Shohei Otani

  1. #1

    The Case for signing Shohei Otani

    Shohei Otani is the latest japanese superstar to be made available via the posting system. He is just turned 23. So he is young with plenty of room to grow and improve.
    He has been recorded with a 100 mph+ heater in a pro ball game. Average velocity is going to be lower, but he has the capacity to throw serious big league heat.
    Japan's exports have been up and down a bit, but the one skill that seems to translate across leagues is pitching.

    We're not looking at a pitcher who needs to get by with off speed stuff and trying to throw the pitch off the plate and get a swing and miss. This young man can throw the real heat and thrive in a fastball dominant pitching league.
    He's more comparable to a Yu Darvish in that respect, and thus I believe he can succeed and adapt to the MLB.

    Next is the fact that the posting system is a lot less outrageous these days. Bid the 20 million dollar max, and from then on it is up to your front office to convince him to sign because I'm sure at least 3-4 clubs will post up the max bid.

    The Red Sox pitching was pretty good last year, but it was by no means the best in the league. I have no idea if Price will rebound correctly. Or if Porcello returns to 2016 Cy Young form.
    We need insurance in the pitching rotation.
    We could do a lot worse than promising a #5 spot to a possible future top 2 rotation pitcher in Otani.

    Look I'm just saying if we sign him, give him the #5 spot for now, if he can't handle it, pull him after a few weeks. But this calculated risk would be worth it imo. Pitching simply wins, especially in the postseason.
    Of course our #1 priority this offseason will still be a top hitter/slugger, but I'm saying the Red Sox shouldn't ignore this opportunity to pick up prime pitching talent for basically just cash.

    Dombrowski has drained the farm a bit for necessary trades -- the Sale trade still stands as one of his best yet as our GM, and the Pomeranz trade finally paid off handsomely last season.
    But here's a chance to acquire talent without expending farm assets, I think we should take it. What's 20 mill for a franchise like the Red Sox?

    Just an added bonus -- If Otani's hitting form is big league good, he could fill both the DH and pitching role for us. A two for one acquisiton. Something to think about.

    Otani Scouting Report:
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254954...shohei-ohtani/

  2. #2
    It'd be great to sign him, but we don't have enough International $$$ to bring him here. Why would he sign a 3-4 year deal with the Sox for $462k/year? I believe the Yanks and Twins can offer over 7 times that amount.
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    It'd be great to sign him, but we don't have enough International $$$ to bring him here. Why would he sign a 3-4 year deal with the Sox for $462k/year? I believe the Yanks and Twins can offer over 7 times that amount.
    I have read an article that the red sox have been trading slots to acquire international money and can offer around 8m dollars which would be competitive with a Yankees signing bonus offer.
    As long as money is relatively close, it's probably going to come down to fit and who Otani believes will give him the best opportunity to succeed. IE recruiting, recruiting, recruiting. Sell him the dream, Dombrowski!

    More Otani news:
    https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/2...-shohei-otani/

    "The Red Sox started with a bonus pool of $4.75 million and have added to it through trades this season. Jon Heyman believes that the Red Sox have been adding to their bonus pools in preparation for an Otani sweepstakes this offseason.
    ... Teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees have around $8 million dollars available as opposed to the Dodgers’ $300,000 cap."

    Will landing Otani be about the money or the dream? Can Red Sox end the Yankees recent monopoly of high end Japanese talent?
    https://sports.yahoo.com/shohei-otan...063136007.html
    Last edited by vjcsmoke; 11-27-2017 at 01:39 PM.

  4. #4
    Ohtani is a stud, and he’ll look great in pinstripes

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by vjcsmoke View Post
    I have read an article that the red sox have been trading slots to acquire international money and can offer around 8m dollars which would be competitive with a Yankees signing bonus offer.
    As long as money is relatively close, it's probably going to come down to fit and who Otani believes will give him the best opportunity to succeed. IE recruiting, recruiting, recruiting. Sell him the dream, Dombrowski!

    More Otani news:
    https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/08/2...-shohei-otani/

    "The Red Sox started with a bonus pool of $4.75 million and have added to it through trades this season. Jon Heyman believes that the Red Sox have been adding to their bonus pools in preparation for an Otani sweepstakes this offseason.
    ... Teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees have around $8 million dollars available as opposed to the Dodgers’ $300,000 cap."
    That link is old. All the newer info reveals they have a lot less to use. They started with $4.75M, added with the Longhi trade, but still spent over $7M already. http://www.soxprospects.com/international.htm
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Ohtani is a stud, and he’ll look great in pinstripes
    Why, will he be shooting guns with Chapman?
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  7. #7
    Also, "Bosoxinjection" is NOT a valid news source.
    Fire Farrell - fucking check mark!
    Trade Pedroia
    Sign JD Martinez to play 1B/DH
    Sign Alex Cora for MGR - check plus!

  8. #8
    The better question is, what is the case against signing him? I don't really see one, unless you think he's not going to be that good a major league hitter and his presumed requirement to be allowed to hit is going to fuck up your roster construction.

    Doesn't sound like we have the bonus pool space left to make it happen, though. Yes, he's already foregoing a huge sum by coming over now rather than in a couple of years, but the difference between $3-4 million and the approximately $400k we have to offer is still pretty significant...
    Last edited by Jack Flap; 11-27-2017 at 02:40 PM.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by vjcsmoke View Post
    Shohei Otani is the latest japanese superstar to be made available via the posting system. He is just turned 23. So he is young with plenty of room to grow and improve.
    He has been recorded with a 100 mph+ heater in a pro ball game. Average velocity is going to be lower, but he has the capacity to throw serious big league heat.
    Japan's exports have been up and down a bit, but the one skill that seems to translate across leagues is pitching.

    We're not looking at a pitcher who needs to get by with off speed stuff and trying to throw the pitch off the plate and get a swing and miss. This young man can throw the real heat and thrive in a fastball dominant pitching league.
    He's more comparable to a Yu Darvish in that respect, and thus I believe he can succeed and adapt to the MLB.

    Next is the fact that the posting system is a lot less outrageous these days. Bid the 20 million dollar max, and from then on it is up to your front office to convince him to sign because I'm sure at least 3-4 clubs will post up the max bid.

    The Red Sox pitching was pretty good last year, but it was by no means the best in the league. I have no idea if Price will rebound correctly. Or if Porcello returns to 2016 Cy Young form.
    We need insurance in the pitching rotation.
    We could do a lot worse than promising a #5 spot to a possible future top 2 rotation pitcher in Otani.

    Look I'm just saying if we sign him, give him the #5 spot for now, if he can't handle it, pull him after a few weeks. But this calculated risk would be worth it imo. Pitching simply wins, especially in the postseason.
    Of course our #1 priority this offseason will still be a top hitter/slugger, but I'm saying the Red Sox shouldn't ignore this opportunity to pick up prime pitching talent for basically just cash.

    Dombrowski has drained the farm a bit for necessary trades -- the Sale trade still stands as one of his best yet as our GM, and the Pomeranz trade finally paid off handsomely last season.
    But here's a chance to acquire talent without expending farm assets, I think we should take it. What's 20 mill for a franchise like the Red Sox?

    Just an added bonus -- If Otani's hitting form is big league good, he could fill both the DH and pitching role for us. A two for one acquisiton. Something to think about.

    Otani Scouting Report:
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/254954...shohei-ohtani/
    As was pointed out below, we do not have the money to make a competitive offer for him. Second point, having "major heat" on his fastball is not good enough in MLB. You need location and a mix of offspeed stuff as well. Third, he is not going to be both a pitcher and a DH. No player in MLB assumes both roles, because of the work involved in preparing to play each role. Finally, I know he comes with a good scouting report, but a lot of guys from Japan did well over there and failed over here. Remember Matsusaka? He had a good year or two, but overall was a disappointment. Its not a given that Ohtani will be a star over here.

  10. #10
    There are no guarantees with Ohtani, but I'd still just as soon the Yanks didn't get him!

  11. #11
    It is probably going to be an AL team - so he could hit a couple of times a week. Also in the land of 13 man pitching staffs - having a potentially "much better than you'd expect" pinch runner/hitter is pretty valuable.

    The Red Sox should do their best - and will ... but this is one of those cases where I don't really think money is going to matter much. Otani will be wildly underpaid for a couple of years regardless ...

    Olney speculated a team like Minnesota could be a dark horse - with basically no payroll commitments after FY20, they could sign Darvish ans Otani as a package.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by FredLynn View Post
    As was pointed out below, we do not have the money to make a competitive offer for him. Second point, having "major heat" on his fastball is not good enough in MLB. You need location and a mix of offspeed stuff as well. Third, he is not going to be both a pitcher and a DH. No player in MLB assumes both roles, because of the work involved in preparing to play each role. Finally, I know he comes with a good scouting report, but a lot of guys from Japan did well over there and failed over here. Remember Matsusaka? He had a good year or two, but overall was a disappointment. Its not a given that Ohtani will be a star over here.
    His scouting is a great fastball, plus-plus slider and splitter ...

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    There are no guarantees with Ohtani, but I'd still just as soon the Yanks didn't get him!
    There are no guarantees with proven MLB veterans either.

    There were solid arguments for Carl Crawford as AL MVP the season before Boston signed him. And he turned into one of the worst signings in MLB history. ..

  14. #14
    Ohtani will sign with either New York, Minn, Texas or Seattle. .

    Sox might as well save their cash for a former Braves top prospect or two...

  15. #15
    Ohtani will sign with either New York, Minn, Texas or Seattle. .

    Sox might as well save their cash for a former Braves top prospect or two...

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