The Depth Argument

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

[Bellhorn04]

I really can't believe DD would trade Bogaerts and Groome for Machado. It's not a question of whether that's a fair return for the O's or not. It would just be an awful move for us IMO.

[cp176]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

I would call that karma for a Yankee fan. Very likely would not happen though.

[Kimmi]

Also, wouldn’t it just be karma for DD if the sox do eventually move Xander plus for Machado and Xander outplays him for one season?

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

I'm fine with the guys we have.

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

[Elktonnick]

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

I'm fine with the guys we have.

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

I certainly agree that this club even without adding JD Martinez will be favored to make the post season. If they do add Martinez, however, they will need to trade someone. Either Bradley or Hanley Ramirez are the two most likely possibilities.

Ramirez poses a particularly sticky problem for Alez Cora if they do sign Martinez. Ramirez needs 499 plate appearances next year for his option to become effective. Unless the Sox make room for Martinez by trading someone it is virtually impossible for Hanley to get the needed number of plate appearances. The prospect of Cora having to deal with a discontented Ramirez wouldn't be very appealing. If Martinez is signed look for someone to get dealt. My choice would be Hanley but that won't be easy.

[a700hitter]

I don't think it's unrealistic that Bogaerts outplays Machado next season. Machado is a great player, but I wouldn't give up on Bogaerts. I am in no rush to trade him, plus others, to get Machado for one year, just like I was in no rush to trade Beni and others for Stanton and his huge contract.

I'm fine with the guys we have.

Especially since Fangraphs currently has us winning the same number of games as the Yankees.

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

[notin]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

[moonslav59]

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

I agree. It would be very surprising to see Bogey have a better year, even just offensively. When you factor in defense (like using WAR), Machado should blow Bogey away.

[oldtimer]

I agree. It would be very surprising to see Bogey have a better year, even just offensively. When you factor in defense (like using WAR), Machado should blow Bogey away.

The question of value seems a little different to me. One year of Machado with his difference in offense and defense against Bogey longer term at less money plus another high level prospect. In that case I would lean toward Kimmi's assessment. A long term Machado against a long term Bogey with a top prospect is more of a balance.

[S5Dewey]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

This has been lurking in the back of my mind for some time, too.

With WC sports usually decided by a game or two and the Sox playing an improved Yankees team 19 times it's going to be that much harder to get a WC spot.

[Kimmi]

I certainly agree that this club even without adding JD Martinez will be favored to make the post season. If they do add Martinez, however, they will need to trade someone. Either Bradley or Hanley Ramirez are the two most likely possibilities.

Ramirez poses a particularly sticky problem for Alez Cora if they do sign Martinez. Ramirez needs 499 plate appearances next year for his option to become effective. Unless the Sox make room for Martinez by trading someone it is virtually impossible for Hanley to get the needed number of plate appearances. The prospect of Cora having to deal with a discontented Ramirez wouldn't be very appealing. If Martinez is signed look for someone to get dealt. My choice would be Hanley but that won't be easy.

If the Sox sign JD, I am 50-50 on whether they would then trade Jackie or Hanley. If they trade either, my choice would be Hanley as well, but I don't think it's necessary that either gets traded. I think there will be enough at bats to keep everyone happy.

There likely wouldn't be enough at bats to allow Hanley's option to kick in, but that should be a motivating factor for Hanley. If he's hitting, he'll get the at bats. Personally, I don't see Hanley as a malcontent.

[Kimmi]

it is possible that Bogaerts has a better 2018 than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely. He is not closed to being as skilled a hitter as Machado. The bat speed is just not there.

As for your position that our offense is fine with the current crew, I think you are wrong. If there are no changes to this lineup, it will continue to suffer from the same fits of inconsistency that plagued it last year.

Speaking in terms of one year, Bogaerts could outperform Machado. I agree that it's not likely, but it's also not unrealistic. Certainly in terms of the added cost it would take to get Machado, I don't think he's worth it over Bogaerts.

As far as our overall offense is concerned, I do believe that we'll see some positive regression from several players. We have a very good, solid young core who underperformed last year. People need to stop selling them short.

[Kimmi]

While the current Sox might be favored to make the post-season, is it realistic? At least right now?

Last week on MLB Radio, Steve Phillips did a bit called "5 in 5 out". The premise was, based on recent history, 5 teams from the last post-season would not make the next one. (He did acknowledge that with a lot of free agents available, this was subject to change. But he also has air time to fill.)

Anyway his 5 out were, in order of likelihood, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Boston and Los Angeles.

The NL West teams all sort of make each other less likely and I don't think he expected to hit on all three. But he had Boston out mostly based on division. The Yankees were his seventh most likely team to miss, behind the Cubs at 6.

Of course it's realistic. Look at the state of the remainder of the AL besides the teams that are also projected to make the playoffs. In particular, look at the state of the AL East besides the Yankees. It's pretty sad.

[Kimmi]

The question of value seems a little different to me. One year of Machado with his difference in offense and defense against Bogey longer term at less money plus another high level prospect. In that case I would lean toward Kimmi's assessment. A long term Machado against a long term Bogey with a top prospect is more of a balance.

If spending and prospects were unlimited, you go with Machado. Since they aren't, you go with the better value. I know people disagree with that philosophy because we are a big market team, but it doesn't make sense to me to spend a ridiculous amount on Machado when we already have Bogaerts.

Of course, I have a higher opinion of Bogaerts than most people here do.

[a700hitter]

Speaking in terms of one year, Bogaerts could outperform Machado. I agree that it's not likely, but it's also not unrealistic. Certainly in terms of the added cost it would take to get Machado, I don't think he's worth it over Bogaerts.

As far as our overall offense is concerned, I do believe that we'll see some positive regression from several players. We have a very good, solid young core who underperformed last year. People need to stop selling them short.

A bad year from Machado blows away a good year from Bogaerts. It is not impossible that Bogaerts would have a better season than Machado, but it is extremely unlikely and unrealistic. And I am not convinced that there is very much potential for increased performance with our current crew. We have hole at 2B for the first 2 months of the season. That is a huge problem. Vasquez is likely to take a step back. I would expect a slight step back from Moreland, slight improvements from Bogaerts and Betts. I expect about the same performance from Bradley. The wild cards are Devers and Benintendi. Are these guys ready to break out, or has the league adjusted to them? I am not seeing enough room for improvement as a squad. The Yankees added a wrecking ball and they were already better than our offense.