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Thread: Spring Training 2018 Thread

  1. #646
    HRam is owed nothing. He signed on the dotted line to play a position he didn't know how to in one of the more difficult environments on the planet (especially with Fenway's LF). He was a square peg for a round hole since he signed and now that continues. It was a stupid contract that keeps on getting dumber. Even if HRam is vintage and hitting the ever loving shit out of the ball, they HAVE to limit his PAs. A non elite masher without a glove has about a $5-$6 mil market in 2018 dollars. You cannot afford to run up against the cap with Hanley at his advanced age and now out of position again for 2019. You just cannot.
    Hal sucks

  2. #647
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I don't think there is anyone who is really all out hoping that Hanley is back next year. In other words, saying that if 'several posters get their way' is really a strawman argument. All we're saying is that his option won't vest unless he is hitting very well, and if he is hitting very well, having his option vest won't be the worst thing in the world.

    Travis will get his shot if he shows that he deserves to be on the big league roster above Hanley or Moreland.
    My choice of wording was wrong and inflamatory. I apologize.

    My point about Travis maybe being someone who steps up and wrestles a FT job away from HRam?Moreland was that it doean't really help our budget for 1 to 2 years. If we had a SP'er step up and win a slot, then we'd save bigtime on not having to re-sign or replace Pom with a FA. Same with someone to replace Smith or Thornburg as they move into Kimbrel's vacated slot in the pen.

    The areas we need the most Immediate help look barren on the farm (SP3, RP2, RP4)

  3. #648
    Slav, my guess is you replace Pom on the open market (maybe re-sign Pom) and let Kimbrel walk with a QO in hand. Your pen has some guys returning who can back end a pitching staff. Your system otherwise has absolutely nobody who can step up into the #3 role and be effective unless you think Wright can be good again or Johnson is anything more than a nothing
    Hal sucks

  4. #649
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    HRam is owed nothing. He signed on the dotted line to play a position he didn't know how to in one of the more difficult environments on the planet (especially with Fenway's LF). He was a square peg for a round hole since he signed and now that continues. It was a stupid contract that keeps on getting dumber. Even if HRam is vintage and hitting the ever loving shit out of the ball, they HAVE to limit his PAs. A non elite masher without a glove has about a $5-$6 mil market in 2018 dollars. You cannot afford to run up against the cap with Hanley at his advanced age and now out of position again for 2019. You just cannot.
    At the time we signed HRam, I thought he was going to be our new 3Bman, then the shocking Pablo signing rattled my bones.

    Many experts felt we got HRam for cheap, but I'm fine with judging signings in hindsight, as long as we do it consistently.

    It was a bad signing. We needed pitching more, at the time, but we did still need hitting. I could see the reasoning behind waiting for the following winter, when big starters were plentiful on the market. In hindsight, the signing was very bad.

    I'm actually one of the few posters who thinks HRam will do well this year, but since Moreland is a better defender, by far, and he does pretty well vs RHPs, so I'd give Moreland a significant amounnt of playing time at 1B vs righties. That should keep HRam from vesting, but there's reason enough to do it, even if HRam did not have the vesting option.

    HRam will have to be having a hell of a season, including vs righties, for me to play him enough to get 497 PAs, which is just 56 more than we gave him last year.


  5. #650
    Even if he is unconscious in 2018 and hitting every ball he sees out of the park, he isn't seeing 497PAs.
    Hal sucks

  6. #651
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The way HRam has been playing for us, he's owed nothing.

    Moreland's been better or equal to HRam on offense vs RHPs, and he's a better defender by a long shot.

    I don't see playing Moreland vs 30-50% of RH'd starters as "the wrong thing to do," even if HRam had not vesting option.

    My view may change, if HRam is way outplaying Moreland vs righties, but I'll speak to that, if and when it happens.

    (By the way, I think notin is one of the smartest and most insightful posters on this board... next to maybe you. Thanks for the compliment, even if unintended. )
    My opinion obviously is going to stay the same. i'm not arguing whether Hanley is owed anything at all. My point would be all about ethics, integrity, and honesty. That's it. As for where anyone stands on the intellectual scale moon - it has become fairly obvious to me that if you wanted to know how bright notin is all you would have to do is ask him. As for me - oh well - it doesn't really matter to me much whether people posting on this site think I am a fool or the court jester even. Like many others here I'm sure, I had a successful career and I am very proud of that. Trying to make others think that I am bright, not my style. I'm comfortable with my intellect. Heres to you and your brilliant friend.

  7. #652
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Slav, my guess is you replace Pom on the open market (maybe re-sign Pom) and let Kimbrel walk with a QO in hand. Your pen has some guys returning who can back end a pitching staff. Your system otherwise has absolutely nobody who can step up into the #3 role and be effective unless you think Wright can be good again or Johnson is anything more than a nothing
    I'm a big Wright fan, but I'm not penciling him in as Pom's replacement next year.

    If we have HRam's contract on the books next year, we can't keep Pom or replace him (in kind) through free agency. We just can't.

    The arb raises will eat up Kimbrel's lost contract ($13M), and we can save $4M by trading or DFA'ing Holt and Leon next winter to pay for the rest of the arb raises and Sale's $1M option raise.

    That leaves Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.9M coming off the books and needing replacement. Assuming we stay near $39M over the luxury tax again, maybe not a good assumption, we will not be able to sign anyone as good as these two for the same money. Assume we can replace Kimbrel and Kelly from within the system, maybe a pen like this:

    C Smith
    R2 Thornburg
    R3 Barnes
    R4 Workman
    R5 Scott
    R6 Hembree
    R7 Maddox/Elias/Buttrey or maybe Wright

    ...that leaves about $12M to replace Pom. Maybe a Lance Lynn type will go for $12M again next year, but who knows?

    I can't see us getting close to resetting the luxury tax, even when we lose Pablo's money. Things look similar after 2019 as well..

  8. #653
    Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred
    Hal sucks

  9. #654
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred
    Evidently in your world that is how it works. You are entitled to that opinion.

  10. #655
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    My opinion obviously is going to stay the same. i'm not arguing whether Hanley is owed anything at all. My point would be all about ethics, integrity, and honesty. That's it. As for where anyone stands on the intellectual scale moon - it has become fairly obvious to me that if you wanted to know how bright notin is all you would have to do is ask him. As for me - oh well - it doesn't really matter to me much whether people posting on this site think I am a fool or the court jester even. Like many others here I'm sure, I had a successful career and I am very proud of that. Trying to make others think that I am bright, not my style. I'm comfortable with my intellect. Heres to you and your brilliant friend.
    I'm just saying what I think. I'm not saying good thinsg about you and notin to pump you guys up. I really think both of you bring a lot to the conversation and make me rethink my own opinions and philosophy about Red Sox baseball.

    I can see the point that if HRam truly deserves to play over Moreland vs just about all RHPs and every LHPs, and we short him to keep him from vesting, it would be an ethical issue and might hamper future signings with clauses like that from happening here, but to me, HRam would have to be the clear choice for me to let him vest. If there's any gray area, I'm going with Moreland, Swihart, Nunez or JD at 1B or DH over HRam which would keep HRam under 497.

    I respect your opinion and do think you're bright, despite disagreeing with me on many issues.


  11. #656
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Ethics, integrity and honesty have a price in baseball. $17 mil more than expected value is a ton of money and business ethics will get blurred
    Oh and by the way, I realize that I'm standing kind of alone on this too. I'm thinking that I might see the world a little differently. Maybe I just don't get out much.

  12. #657
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm a big Wright fan, but I'm not penciling him in as Pom's replacement next year.

    If we have HRam's contract on the books next year, we can't keep Pom or replace him (in kind) through free agency. We just can't.

    The arb raises will eat up Kimbrel's lost contract ($13M), and we can save $4M by trading or DFA'ing Holt and Leon next winter to pay for the rest of the arb raises and Sale's $1M option raise.

    That leaves Pom's $8.5M and Kelly's $3.9M coming off the books and needing replacement. Assuming we stay near $39M over the luxury tax again, maybe not a good assumption, we will not be able to sign anyone as good as these two for the same money. Assume we can replace Kimbrel and Kelly from within the system, maybe a pen like this:

    C Smith
    R2 Thornburg
    R3 Barnes
    R4 Workman
    R5 Scott
    R6 Hembree
    R7 Maddox/Elias/Buttrey or maybe Wright

    ...that leaves about $12M to replace Pom. Maybe a Lance Lynn type will go for $12M again next year, but who knows?

    I can't see us getting close to resetting the luxury tax, even when we lose Pablo's money. Things look similar after 2019 as well..
    Resetting the lux tax just isn't happening. The market was down this yr for a variety of reasons, but by the time the sox have to spend, the market will be back up, I promise you that. Now, assume the sox don't get the opt out from JD or Price and they stay forever. You currently sit right against the upper limit, which I am sure you aren't going to go past. Let's see who comes off the next few years


    After 2018
    Kimbrel $13 mil
    Pomeranz $8.5 mil
    Kelly $3.5 mil
    Hanley $22 mil
    Nunez $2 mil ($4 mil contract in 2018 but $2 mil buyout in 2019)
    Arbitration raises will eat Hanley's unnecessary contract. You will replace Pomeranz or Kimbrel, most likely Pom. Kimbrel walks after declining a QO and allows the sox to add some much needed talent. Nunez will need replacing if Pedroia doesn't return well.

    After 2019
    Porcello $20.75 mil
    Sale $13.5 mil
    Bogaerts $XX
    Panda $19 mil
    Thornburg $XX

    I anticipate you'll try to re-sign Sale and it will take Porcello and Sale's 2019 contracts together to bring him back. If Bogaerts continues as a 3-4WAR SS and doesn't take the next step, he is still a $20 mil per annum player. If he puts it together and has a .300 25HR season, he'll be worth more. Thornburg will either be your closer or setup man if he returns to health. He is likely gone. You'll have a second spot to replace which will eat the last of your cap space.

    After 2020
    Benintendi and Devers are into their arb years. You've managed to keep Sale, re-sign Pomeranz or someone of his ilk and get a 5th starter on the cheap. Kimbrel and Thornburg are into their tenures with another club. You've managed to keep the window open. Betts and Bradley are FAs after 2020. Pedroia, Martinez, and Price are still on the books. With Beni starting to cost money and Devers costing something, the minor losses of the other guys finishing their rookie contracts is eaten up. If Bradley doesn't keep hitting, then he is an easy release. But re-signing Betts will likely force you to use all the available space at that point.

    After 2020, if DD keeps the family together...
    Price $31 mil AAV
    Pedroia $12 mil
    Martinez $21 mil
    Betts $30 mil
    Sale $32 mil
    Bogaerts $20 mil
    Pomeranz $18 mil

    Before you know it, you're $164 mil deep with just 7 players. This is the cliff
    Hal sucks

  13. #658
    And guys, I am not so naïve to think my team will face a similar process if we "go for it". Right now, we have a lights out system with depth that is big league ready. If we nurture that and keep the right players, we can keep this thing rolling while paying the right guys and letting others walk
    Hal sucks

  14. #659
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Resetting the lux tax just isn't happening. The market was down this yr for a variety of reasons, but by the time the sox have to spend, the market will be back up, I promise you that. Now, assume the sox don't get the opt out from JD or Price and they stay forever. You currently sit right against the upper limit, which I am sure you aren't going to go past. Let's see who comes off the next few years


    After 2018
    Kimbrel $13 mil
    Pomeranz $8.5 mil
    Kelly $3.5 mil
    Hanley $22 mil
    Nunez $2 mil ($4 mil contract in 2018 but $2 mil buyout in 2019)
    Arbitration raises will eat Hanley's unnecessary contract. You will replace Pomeranz or Kimbrel, most likely Pom. Kimbrel walks after declining a QO and allows the sox to add some much needed talent. Nunez will need replacing if Pedroia doesn't return well.

    After 2019
    Porcello $20.75 mil
    Sale $13.5 mil
    Bogaerts $XX
    Panda $19 mil
    Thornburg $XX

    I anticipate you'll try to re-sign Sale and it will take Porcello and Sale's 2019 contracts together to bring him back. If Bogaerts continues as a 3-4WAR SS and doesn't take the next step, he is still a $20 mil per annum player. If he puts it together and has a .300 25HR season, he'll be worth more. Thornburg will either be your closer or setup man if he returns to health. He is likely gone. You'll have a second spot to replace which will eat the last of your cap space.

    After 2020
    Benintendi and Devers are into their arb years. You've managed to keep Sale, re-sign Pomeranz or someone of his ilk and get a 5th starter on the cheap. Kimbrel and Thornburg are into their tenures with another club. You've managed to keep the window open. Betts and Bradley are FAs after 2020. Pedroia, Martinez, and Price are still on the books. With Beni starting to cost money and Devers costing something, the minor losses of the other guys finishing their rookie contracts is eaten up. If Bradley doesn't keep hitting, then he is an easy release. But re-signing Betts will likely force you to use all the available space at that point.

    After 2020, if DD keeps the family together...
    Price $31 mil AAV
    Pedroia $12 mil
    Martinez $21 mil
    Betts $30 mil
    Sale $32 mil
    Bogaerts $20 mil
    Pomeranz $18 mil

    Before you know it, you're $164 mil deep with just 7 players. This is the cliff
    I think we lose Bogey, but I agree with the rest, in general.

  15. #660
    If you lose Bogey, you'll need to spend to replace him. While he is inconsistent and hasn't reached his potential, he is still a very good SS. He's accumulated at least 3.2WAR the last 3 seasons. He will be paid handsomely
    Hal sucks

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