Originally Posted by
jacksonianmarch
Resetting the lux tax just isn't happening. The market was down this yr for a variety of reasons, but by the time the sox have to spend, the market will be back up, I promise you that. Now, assume the sox don't get the opt out from JD or Price and they stay forever. You currently sit right against the upper limit, which I am sure you aren't going to go past. Let's see who comes off the next few years
After 2018
Kimbrel $13 mil
Pomeranz $8.5 mil
Kelly $3.5 mil
Hanley $22 mil
Nunez $2 mil ($4 mil contract in 2018 but $2 mil buyout in 2019)
Arbitration raises will eat Hanley's unnecessary contract. You will replace Pomeranz or Kimbrel, most likely Pom. Kimbrel walks after declining a QO and allows the sox to add some much needed talent. Nunez will need replacing if Pedroia doesn't return well.
After 2019
Porcello $20.75 mil
Sale $13.5 mil
Bogaerts $XX
Panda $19 mil
Thornburg $XX
I anticipate you'll try to re-sign Sale and it will take Porcello and Sale's 2019 contracts together to bring him back. If Bogaerts continues as a 3-4WAR SS and doesn't take the next step, he is still a $20 mil per annum player. If he puts it together and has a .300 25HR season, he'll be worth more. Thornburg will either be your closer or setup man if he returns to health. He is likely gone. You'll have a second spot to replace which will eat the last of your cap space.
After 2020
Benintendi and Devers are into their arb years. You've managed to keep Sale, re-sign Pomeranz or someone of his ilk and get a 5th starter on the cheap. Kimbrel and Thornburg are into their tenures with another club. You've managed to keep the window open. Betts and Bradley are FAs after 2020. Pedroia, Martinez, and Price are still on the books. With Beni starting to cost money and Devers costing something, the minor losses of the other guys finishing their rookie contracts is eaten up. If Bradley doesn't keep hitting, then he is an easy release. But re-signing Betts will likely force you to use all the available space at that point.
After 2020, if DD keeps the family together...
Price $31 mil AAV
Pedroia $12 mil
Martinez $21 mil
Betts $30 mil
Sale $32 mil
Bogaerts $20 mil
Pomeranz $18 mil
Before you know it, you're $164 mil deep with just 7 players. This is the cliff