Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

There are a lot of variables going into this winter, concerning the 2024 Red Sox roster and budget. It's hard to know what the budget plans are and where the roster priorities are, but that won't stop us from discussing them and giving our ideas, suggestions, predictions and criticisms.

Right now, we have 45 players on the 40 man roster, due to 5 guys on the 60 day IL: Kluber, Mondesi, Mills, Kelly and Ort, and since there is no 60 day IL in the offseason, we will need to deal with those 5 slots, but not to worry, we have 5 players that will become free agents:
Paxton
Duvall
Mondesi
Kluber (option not be offered- no buyout.)
Turner (player option will surely be turned down)

That brings us to 40 without considering added free agents or trade acquisitions over the winter and Rule 5 additions. I can't see how we don't add at least 2-3 players to the roster via free agency or by trades involving non 40 man roster players. The Rule 5 list is rather long, but many are on the bubble. I'm thinking 5-6 are pretty sure bets to be protected and maybe 1-3 others as strong considerations. Here are my lists:
Sure bets:
W Gonzalez
L Perales
S Drohan
G Gambrell
S Scott

Strong consideration:
A Castro (too low level to be selected?)
B Bonaci

Kinda long shots:
E Paulino
M Lugo
J Hagenman
C-J Liu
R Fernandez
L de la Rosa
A Bastardo
B Bell
B Gonzalez

Let's say we protect 7 Rule 5 and add 3 free agents, that would mean 10 players will need to be DFA'd, non tendered or traded for non 40 man roster prospects.

Here is my list of 8, and none of them make me feel worried we are handing one away:
1. Ort
2. Garza
3. Weiss
4. Barraclough
5. Jacques
6. Llovera
7. DHam (trade)
8. Dalbec (trade)

Bubble players (trade away?)
Wyatt Mills
Zack Kelly

Valued players thought to be possible trade bait"
Dugo or Duran
Sale (with cash)
Joely, Murphy, Walter, Robertson or Mata
EValdez

I don't see a big roster squeeze, unless we try to sign 4-6 free agents and protect 7-9 Rule 5'ers.

On the budget, a more detailed breakdown will be coming, but we are adding the Devers Raise (almost $12M) and have a bunch or ARB raises ('23 salary):
6.3 Dugo (3rd arb of 3)
5.3 Pivetta (3 of 3)
4.7 Urias (3 of 4)
1.2 McGuire (2 of 3)
min Barraclough (3 of 3)
750K Schreiber (1 of 3)
min Dalbec (1 of 3)
cots has us at $158M before any arbs or options. That leaves about $80M for ARBs and additions.

More to come...

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

[notin]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?

[moonslav59]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.

I think we don't have many slots to fill, but we may add some depth players on 1 year deals at positions where we are not sure incoming kids are good enough, yet.

IIf we sign one more SP'er as our best one to a 1 year $10M contract, I'll be as gloom and doom as fred lynn.

[moonslav59]

Is this a top contending team?

SP1 Nola
SP2 Yamamoto
SP3 Bello
SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
SP5 Pivetta

Closer Jansen
RP2 Martin
RP3 Schreiber
RP4 Crawford (SP?)
RP5 Houck (SP?)
RP6 Whitlock
RP7 Winckowski
RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
2. Devers 3B
3. Story SS
4. Casas 1B
5. Yoshida DH
6. Dugo RF
7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
8. Urias/Reyes 2B
9. Wong/McGuire C

[Nick]

I really don't know how to address the BIG elephant in the room question (starting pitching) but I did like the two year deals on Jansen and Martin. I'd like to target maybe another set up guy to a two year deal. 2023 definitely showed the value of being able to protect leads in the last two innings.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?

A GM might be done with JT when his beard turns white. But by then, he might be the GM...

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Is this a top contending team?

SP1 Nola
SP2 Yamamoto
SP3 Bello
SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
SP5 Pivetta

Closer Jansen
RP2 Martin
RP3 Schreiber
RP4 Crawford (SP?)
RP5 Houck (SP?)
RP6 Whitlock
RP7 Winckowski
RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
2. Devers 3B
3. Story SS
4. Casas 1B
5. Yoshida DH
6. Dugo RF
7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
8. Urias/Reyes 2B
9. Wong/McGuire C

I don't think so. The two best hitters from this year's mediocrity -- Turner and Duvall -- are missing. I don't expect Verdugo to be back, and Duvall would be a logical replacement -- and maybe even more valuable as a righty pull hitter (something too lacking in this lefty-laden batting order for Fenway) and middle of the order anchor. Story should improve, but at this stage in his career I don't expect him to make enough consistent contact to be a productive #3 hitter.

The #8-9 platoon guys are also just placeholders for regulars that may truly turn this group into a "top contender." I'm talking Mayer at SS (Story moves to 2B) and Teel at C. Best-case scenario: they're this century's Lynn-Rice Rookie-of-the-Year twins by 2025. But since neither is an outfielder, we'll settle for the debuts of Nomar-Fisk...

Unfortunately, under the devious and not-so-deceptive Henry-Bloom 100-month plan, we may need to wait until then before they finally invest in any top-of-the-rotation pitching.

[Old Red]

Is this a top contending team?

SP1 Nola
SP2 Yamamoto
SP3 Bello
SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
SP5 Pivetta

Closer Jansen
RP2 Martin
RP3 Schreiber
RP4 Crawford (SP?)
RP5 Houck (SP?)
RP6 Whitlock
RP7 Winckowski
RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
2. Devers 3B
3. Story SS
4. Casas 1B
5. Yoshida DH
6. Dugo RF
7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
8. Urias/Reyes 2B
9. Wong/McGuire C

No! No on the rotation. Duran had lost a lot of his luster before he got hurt, so no on him, and the Ref Man in LF. Raf, and Abreu are untested, and Dugy is up in the air. The $100M man is a question where he plays too. Take out JT, and Duvall out of this lineup, and it could be very weak. Then another big question is if Story Land will be opened, or closed. Could still be a bad defensive IF too. It would be a contender for something, but I don’t think for the top, and maybe worse than this year. I don’t see any Mookie Betts in the lineup. Where’s he?

[A Red Sox fan named Hugh]

Is this a top contending team?

SP1 Nola
SP2 Yamamoto
SP3 Bello
SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck
SP5 Pivetta

Closer Jansen
RP2 Martin
RP3 Schreiber
RP4 Crawford (SP?)
RP5 Houck (SP?)
RP6 Whitlock
RP7 Winckowski
RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF
2. Devers 3B
3. Story SS
4. Casas 1B
5. Yoshida DH
6. Dugo RF
7. Rafaela/Abreu CF
8. Urias/Reyes 2B
9. Wong/McGuire C

With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

[notin]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

Sign Matt Chapman.

Sign a TBD RP.

C - Wong, McGuire
1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b
2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender
SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez
3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela
RF - Verdugo
DH - Casas

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck
RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

[Old Red]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

Sign Matt Chapman.

Sign a TBD RP.

C - Wong, McGuire
1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b
2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender
SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez
3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century
LF - Yoshida
CF - Rafaela
RF - Verdugo
DH - Casas

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck
RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

They are not going to sign Matt Chapman. They are not going to move Raffy to 1B. Casas is the 1B. No on the starting rotation. It’s pretty sad, depressing, and a whole lot of incompetence to be talking about next year when we Should be talking about the Red Sox being in the postseason this year. Oh well better luck next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.

I think the first part is overstated a bit.

[notin]

With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

Is Nola really a top tier pitcher?

His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 103, basically league average.

He’s also 30 years old, and therefore not likely to get better.

To me, depends on the deal. 5 years or more at anything over $20mill - hard, hard, hard pass.

But I wouldn’t mind Nola on a shorter deal. The shorter the better…

[Old Red]

I think the first part is overstated a bit.

Not in Bloom’s way of thinking.