A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Many fans are about as fed up as can be. I'm not sure, if that is enough to light a fire under the current team ownership and management group, but a fire is likely what we need to seriously compete in 2024.

We'll be talking Rule 5, options and arbs, trades and signings before we know it. Most of us agree our top need is the rotation, and not just one top starter, but two or three. LH'd relief has been mentioned as has a big RH'd bat. Improving the D has been a topic, too.

The budget is a big question mark, again.

Here is what I think the foundation will be for 2024. I'm leaving 4 slots for additions via free agency or by trade:

SP1 _____
SP2 _____
SP3 Bello
SP4 Sale (Houck or Crawford)
SP5 Pivetta

Closer Jansen
RP2 Martin
RP3 Houck
RP4 Crawford
RP5 Whitlock
RP6 Winckowski
RP7 Schreiber
RP8 ______ (LHP)

C Wong & McGuire
1B Casas
2B Reyes & Urias
3B Devers
SS Story
LF Duran & Refsnyder
CF ______ (RHB) Rafaela or Abreu
RF Verdugo
DH Yoshida

40 Man Roster on the Farm
C S Scott (Rule 5)
2B/DH EValdez
SS DHam
OF RaFaela or Abreu
SP Wikelman (Rule 5), Gambrell (Rule 5), Perales (Rule 5), Drohan (Rule 5)
P Murphy, Walter, Mata,
RP Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson

Gone from 40:
1B/RF Dalbec
RP Joely, Mills, Garza, Jacques, Llovera, Weiss, Gillaspie

I like the foundation. I know others don't. I know other teams have better and deeper foundations, as of now, but things can change over a winter.

I'm hopeful about 2024, but we will need to see some major additions for me to be optimistic about our chances. Let's see what the new GM brings to the equation.

[Larry Cook]

Who will replace Hang’em Chaim?

[moonslav59]

Who will replace Hang’em Chaim?

Probably not much will happen until this question is answered.

[mvp 78]

78-84

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

[moonslav59]

78-84

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

I get the sneaky feeling they feel they can come up with 4 decent starters from what we roll over.

We've beaten this to death, but jerking RP'ers into the rotation and then back and forth doesn't seem like a winning plan.

I think we will decide to keep Whitlock in the pen, so that might work out well. (It did for Wink.)

Bello is a lock for one slot.
My guess is Pivetta is for another.
Signing one makes it 3. That means we would need 2 from these guys:
Sale
Houck
Crawford
(Murphy, Walter, Gambrell, Wikelman, Mata, Drohan)

Personally, I'd keep Houck and Crawford in the pen and have a viable option as back-up to Sale, so we don't have to slide Houck or Crawford back to the rotation.

I'm not downplaying the talent of Houck and Crawford. I like both, a lot, but they seem like great pen arms and questionable starters.

[BOSOX11]

Maybe we can get E-Rod back via FA.

[cp176]

78-84

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

Right now, the starting rotation has the exact same amount of sure things going into next year as it did last winter: Bello and #5 man Nick Pivetta.

Now think about the entire season, and who -- if any other guy -- would be the closest to a fulltimer? Yes, that would be... Cutter Crawford: best WHIP among starters, more Ks than Bello, and tied with Pivetta for best starter ERA.

Sign one reliable starter, trade for a young one with potential, and somehow find a respectable righty power bat to protect Devers.

Raffy's season, with rankings among AL third basemen: 1st in HR, RBI, Slugging, OPS; 3rd in H, R, 2B, BA; 4th in OBP, tied 4th BB, 5th in Ks... Those stats seem to justify top salary among position players on the team -- either that or fans lack perspective with the realities of current batting struggles throughout the big leagues.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

A few other AL rankings...

Yoshida among leftfielders: 1st in BA and SLUGGING; 2nd in OPS, H, RBI; 3rd OBP... 5th in HRs, 10th in Ks, 14th in BBs... 8-for-8 in SB attempts... strange days, indeed.

Verdugo among rightfielders: 2nd in BA and doubles; 4th in OPS, R; 5th in H... but here's the kicker -- among RFs with at least 500 ABs, dead last in HRs and RBIs. A corner outfielder for a contender has to do better than 13 HRs and 54 RBI.

[moonslav59]

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

We disagree, a lot, but I have always respected you and your opinions.

Well said.

[Bellhorn04]

A few other AL rankings...

Yoshida among leftfielders: 1st in BA and SLUGGING; 2nd in OPS, H, RBI; 3rd OBP... 5th in HRs, 10th in Ks, 14th in BBs... 8-for-8 in SB attempts... strange days, indeed.

Verdugo among rightfielders: 2nd in BA and doubles; 4th in OPS, R; 5th in H... but here's the kicker -- among RFs with at least 500 ABs, dead last in HRs and RBIs. A corner outfielder for a contender has to do better than 13 HRs and 54 RBI.

But Yoshida only had 2 HR more than Verdugo.

AL left fielders must have been really bad this year, I guess.

[Old Red]

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

POTENTIAL young players? Was there anything that the RAF Man did in a Red Sox uniform this year in garbage time at that get you all excited to pencil him in to start in CF next year? Portland, and Worcester yes, but what he did with his chances in Sept left a lot to be desired that he’s going to be a good ML player.

[Old Red]

But Yoshida only had 2 HR more than Verdugo.

AL left fielders must have been really bad this year, I guess.

But what’s your lasting impression of Yoshida this year outside of chasing balls caught in a light in the wall was beating ground balls into the infield dirt.

[notin]

POTENTIAL young players? Was there anything that the RAF Man did in a Red Sox uniform this year in garbage time at that get you all excited to pencil him in to start in CF next year? Portland, and Worcester yes, but what he did with his chances in Sept left a lot to be desired that he’s going to be a good ML player.

He can field the position…

[notin]

Right now, the starting rotation has the exact same amount of sure things going into next year as it did last winter: Bello and #5 man Nick Pivetta.

Now think about the entire season, and who -- if any other guy -- would be the closest to a fulltimer? Yes, that would be... Cutter Crawford: best WHIP among starters, more Ks than Bello, and tied with Pivetta for best starter ERA.

Sign one reliable starter, trade for a young one with potential, and somehow find a respectable righty power bat to protect Devers.

Raffy's season, with rankings among AL third basemen: 1st in HR, RBI, Slugging, OPS; 3rd in H, R, 2B, BA; 4th in OBP, tied 4th BB, 5th in Ks... Those stats seem to justify top salary among position players on the team -- either that or fans lack perspective with the realities of current batting struggles throughout the big leagues.

I have no issues with Crawford as a SP. I do think they need two other SPs as well.

But a RHH bat to protect Devers in fromt of a league worst defense makes zero sense. Sox were, despite the slow finish, a top ten offense. They were not a top 29 defense…