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Jeter is thirty-two, so if he plays until he is thirty-eight, we'll say..
He'll need to average about 167 hits a season. So far in his career he has averaged 206 a season. I think he could go it.
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Agreed, at the end of the day it comes down to health and how long the player wants to play. Look at Lou Gehrig. He would have gotten to 3000 hits. Don Mattingly finished with only 2153 hits. If he doesnt have that cronic back injury who knows how many hits he gets.
Jeter has been healthy for most of his entire career, if he stays healthy and plays untill hes 38 or 39 I think he gets there.
With Jeter there are some additional considerations beyond his health. As a SS will he be able to hold down the SS position until age 37 or 38. If he ages out of the position, does he move to 3rd? ARod is already there. Do they move him 1B? He is a good offensive player, but he doesn't have the kind of pop that you look for from a first baseman. He has always been a top of the order hitter, partly because of his speed. Will he be a viable top of the order hitter at 38? He doesn't have middle of the order pop.
Well Jeter is a shortstop, I doubt he can productively hold down that spot until 38 or 39, so they'll have to move him. But where would they move him. As has been noted, A-Rod holds down 3rd base, and I'm not sure Jeter could play 1st. He could DH, but at 38 will he really have enough pop left in the bat to justify that spot?
If that was to happen, he could always Ruben Sierra or Frank Thomas it, move to DH/Spot Fielder, I'm sure Bernie and Giambi will have well passed on their playing days by then
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You bring up some good points. I look at Jeter and I think he can be a productive player at SS for awhile. For arguments sake lets say his defensive skills erode at age 36. The Yankees can then maybe split him at 1B and DH almost like they do with Bernie right now(except he plays the OF and Bernie really doesnt have the pop for a corner OF anyway.). Maybe by that time you move A-Rod back to SS and move Jeter to 3rd. There are alot of options. I heard this somewhere and I'm gonna have to do the math but if he gets 150 hits per year untill hes 38 he will get to 3000 hits. IMO he can get that done.