Yankees 2023 Season Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

With the players reporting, it is time to renew the year's old tradition of the Yankees in season thread. This year promises to be one of intrigue and hope while also having a strong possibility of rage and disappointment. The Yanks came off a strong start to 2022 with a dud of a second half. They rallied to move onto the ALCS but got stomped by the Astros, who still have their number. They saw their offense wilt as the year went on and instead of add to the offense, they stood pat and added to the pitching staff. They do have some very solid young players right on the brink of being ready and a young UTIL guy in Oswaldo Cabrera who is likely to be starting in LF on opening day. If the kids come through, we should be hanging banner 28. If the offense stumbles again, we will not be close to that lofty goal.

In terms of offense...

C: Trevino, backup Higgy. We got a gold glove performance and an unexpected offensive renaissance from Trevino. Asking him to hit like this again is likely a fools errand, but the kid can catch. Higgy is a quality backup with some pop. Yanks do not need to add here. They do have Austin Wells coming down the pipe, but he might be moved off position. Beyond these two, depth is low

1B: Rizzo- Rizzo had a banner year in 22. He is a lefty power hitter in YS and should be helped by the banning of the shift. If he can stay healthy and avoid back woes, he could post stupid numbers in 23

2B: Torres- long rumored to be dealt, the Yanks held onto him and decided to upgrade the rotation via straight cash. Torres had a very solid 22 season and is heading into his prime. His issue is too many deep valleys. If he can get some level of consistency as he enters his prime, he could be a deadly bat in this order. Should the Yankees get the push from Volpe they are expecting, Torres could be an interesting trade piece at the deadline if he continues to be frustratingly hot and cold

SS: IKF will start, but this will be Peraza's job by June. IKF is a solid defender with a good bat to ball skill and baserunning skill who otherwise brings nothing offensively to the table. Peraza has the glove to stick and the bat to hit for average and probably 20ish bombs a year.

3B: Lemahieu- If DJ is healthy, he is the starting 3b on this team. Donaldson will see time, likely vs lefties, which will drop Lemahieu's stat line a bit. It will be important to get Donaldson some ABs as Lemahieu has proven to be a bit fragile

LF: Cabrera- kid put up some video game level defensive numbers in his 44 games and got hot at the end of the season. He could be a very sneaky level player for the Yanks who could have high OBP and power numbers mixed with stellar defensive numbers to produce a surprising WAR. Or he could come into the year and not make the adjustments teams will invariably do and end up back in Scranton. Hicks will be backing him up. Hicks is essentially a corpse at this point

CF: Bader- love this guy. GG level defense with some pop mixed in. Offense might be average, but should shine with the baserunning and might see a lot of good pitches to hit in this lineup. He's also going into FA after 23, so he's a pick to pop

RF: Judge- all rise. Guy is a future HOFer. Team far too reliant on his performance. Expecting another 22 is stupid. But with no shift, his numbers might inflate

DH: Stanton- guy is a world beater when healthy, but he rarely is. Last year he started off on fire, cooled off a bit and then got hurt. Came back looking like his legs were gone. They need to look at him and DJ and essentially treat them like fragile china dolls to nurse them to health by PO time. A healthy Stanton in the POs can yield some dividends

Overall- I see the Yanks offense crushing bad teams and still being handled by good pitching. They don't have the guys who work counts like they used to have beyond Judge and they lack a lot of contact skill to counteract the high octane K pitchers. The only counter here is the shift. Bashers took the biggest hit when the shift started. Their screaming liners into the pull side went from hits to outs and their averages plummeted. If the shift allows these bombers to see higher averages, then we could enter territory we have not seen since 2009

SPI: Cole- ace level guy who gets a bad rap. He's been nails for the Yanks, unless he faces Devers
SP2: Rodon- Likely to be a 5+ IP pitcher but can be dominant. Yankee stadium has been good to lefties and this guy is a good one
SP3: Sevy- in his walk year and after a year where the Yanks mothballed him for 2 months against his will, he will be looking for a big springboard year before FA. I expect him to have a monster year
SP4: Cortes- I love this guy. Reminds me of old school pitchers and has the stuff and location to match. Should have a solid season as long as he is healthy
SP5: German- I think German wins this role. He's got a deep arsenal and has proven capable of being a back end starter. I know Schmidt is the higher end pick, but Schmidt is also the better reliever due to his high GB rate and wipeout slider.

CL: Holmes- if healhy, he will dominate
SU: Trivino- was nails after coming over to NY
SU: Kahnle- coming off two injured seasons but showed top notch stuff at end of 22. Could be a steal
MR: Peralta- coming off a dominant year, should be in the mix for saves when Holmes is out
MR: Loaisiga- was dominant in 21, stunk to start 22 and ended being dominant
MR: King- outside chance he makes it onto the OD roster. I am leery about elbow fractures, but if he shows the same stuff as before, he will jump the pecking list
MR: Marinaccio- dominant start to his career. Firmly affixed in the Yanks plans

Overall, this team should be even better with the more balanced schedule. The AL East was a buzzsaw and they won 99 games. They should eclipse 100 with the other divisions having very little depth and the Yanks not seeing their own division as much. The biggest question will come in the POs. Can the team arrive there with their stars not banged up. Can they have some jobs be taken by hot shot kids. Can they hit now that the shift is dead? Can they make enough contact against dominant pitchers? Lots of questions, but still should be a good year for the boys in the Bronx. Go Yanks

[moonslav59]

Why does how well some Yankee players did at the end of 2022 matter so much, but not with guys like Turner?

[bkzwhitestrican]

Because he's a Red Sux, duh

[moonslav59]

Because he's a Red Sux, duh

It is pretty telling that only 2 Yankee players finished '23 strongly.

[notin]

The Yanks biggest issue is already clear - starting pitcher health, just like Boston.

Montas is already down. Cortes is injured, but likely not seriously. Rodon and Severino are accidents waiting to happen. So the question might how far can Cole and German carry this team?

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks biggest issue is already clear - starting pitcher health, just like Boston.

Montas is already down. Cortes is injured, but likely not seriously. Rodon and Severino are accidents waiting to happen. So the question might how far can Cole and German carry this team?

Yanks starting pitching will be dynamite if they can stay healthy. Their upside outstrips nearly every rotation in baseball. They have some depth with Schmidt already on the big league roster and Brito, Vasquez, Warren and Gomez in the high minors. I am not really worried about the pitching. They've got the arms in the pen and rotation and then in the minors to be a dominant staff. But they need to hit good pitching and they've almost been entirely incapable of doing so the past 3-4 years

[jacksonianmarch]

Why does how well some Yankee players did at the end of 2022 matter so much, but not with guys like Turner?

Turner might do very well in Boston. Or he might succumb to father time. Either way, his performance is moot on a team that is gonna shit the bed

[notin]

Yanks starting pitching will be dynamite if they can stay healthy. Their upside outstrips nearly every rotation in baseball. They have some depth with Schmidt already on the big league roster and Brito, Vasquez, Warren and Gomez in the high minors. I am not really worried about the pitching. They've got the arms in the pen and rotation and then in the minors to be a dominant staff. But they need to hit good pitching and they've almost been entirely incapable of doing so the past 3-4 years

“If they can stay healthy” is the point.

A healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock/Pivetta has just as much potential as the Yankees rotation. But it’s also not likely all of them stay healthy. And Bello - if healthy - can only make up for one.

Also - Schmidt is a relief pitcher. The Yankees need to wake up to that fact…

[bkzwhitestrican]

“If they can stay healthy” is the point.

A healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock/Pivetta has just as much potential as the Yankees rotation.

Maybe Sale/Kluber/Paxton from 5 years ago. The difference is that Cole/Rodon/Severino/Cortes are in their prime. What does a healthy Sale even look like at this point? Same for Paxton. Kluber was healthy last year and had a 4.34 ERA.

[notin]

Maybe Sale/Kluber/Paxton from 5 years ago. The difference is that Cole/Rodon/Severino/Cortes are in their prime. What does a healthy Sale even look like at this point? Same for Paxton. Kluber was healthy last year and had a 4.34 ERA.

Severino has thrown 120 IP since 2018. Even Sale and Paxton have thrown more. While the bulk of Severino’s IP did come last year, he was hardly without incident. He made as many starts after June as he made during June.

But hey, he’s in his prime!!

[bkzwhitestrican]

The point I'm trying to make isn't about who is healthier, but what can you reasonably expect from either pitcher if they were actually healthy.

Severino pitched 102 innings last year with a 3.18 ERA. He's still only 28 years old. Sale will be 34 years old this year and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 4.40 ERA. Paxton is also 34 years old and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA. If both were healthy this year should we expect them to pitch better than when they were 3 years younger? Maybe marginally since they should be "fresh" from not pitching for so long, but to say a healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber is on par with a healthy Cole/Rodon/Severino seems a little delusional.

[moonslav59]

Turner might do very well in Boston. Or he might succumb to father time. Either way, his performance is moot on a team that is gonna shit the bed

The more you talk, the more I get pumped up about our chances.

[Bellhorn04]

The point I'm trying to make isn't about who is healthier, but what can you reasonably expect from either pitcher if they were actually healthy.

Severino pitched 102 innings last year with a 3.18 ERA. He's still only 28 years old. Sale will be 34 years old this year and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 4.40 ERA. Paxton is also 34 years old and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA. If both were healthy this year should we expect them to pitch better than when they were 3 years younger? Maybe marginally since they should be "fresh" from not pitching for so long, but to say a healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber is on par with a healthy Cole/Rodon/Severino seems a little delusional.

ERA is not a reliable stat in itself.

[bkzwhitestrican]

ERA is not a reliable stat in itself.

True but I'm lazy and I think ERA (over the course of a season) is a pretty good indicator for pitching performance. You can disagree with that if you want but then that's a whole separate conversation.

[Bellhorn04]

True but I'm lazy and I think ERA (over the course of a season) is a pretty good indicator for pitching performance. You can disagree with that if you want but then that's a whole separate conversation.

OK, well, as far as 2019 is concerned, Sale was likely pitching hurt.

In 2021 he registered a 3.16 ERA in a small sample of 42.2 innings.

His career ERA is 3.03.

I don't think anyone would argue Chris Sale is a 4.40 ERA guy when he's healthy.

Factor in age, and a reasonable projection of his ERA this year would be 3.40 or something like that.