Current Red Sox playoff chances

[Thunder]

As of right now, how good/bad do you think the Sox playoff chances are? Red Sox are 72-51, with a 2.0 game lead over the Rays. If they are going to solidify themselves as a contender, it has to be over the next two weeks or so. The next 4 series are vs the Yankees, at the Giants and Dodgers, then home against the O's. I would love to see them go 8-4 during this stretch, averaging a series win in all 4 series. I think that is very possible. They have the offense to do it, but there are individual nights where it doesn't show up when needed. Those things happen to every team. The pitching will get a huge boost when Buchholz comes back. I think they still have a legitimate chance at getting to the World Series.

How do you think the next two weeks will go? How will it affect their playoff chances? What do you think their record during this stretch will be? Will they still be in 1st place after the Orioles series? All of these are things to think about.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

[Bellhorn04]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

Time to change your sig I guess.

[Station 13]

Most other teams seeking a WC have to go 30-10 to beat out the Red Sox for a WC. and the Sox go 10-30 or whatever their # of remaining games are.

[BigPapi]

Its just two series people. Jeez. They are going to lose two series in a row throughout the season, and luckily this year, they have not done it much. The loses were shitty and yesterdays poor performance of scoring base-runners was terrible, but they could win the next 3 series and get a bigger lead in first place.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Time to change your sig I guess.

It's more of me trying not to get crushed by a 2011 redux than anything. In my brain I think they're a PS team. In my heart I am trying not to get ripped again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Most other teams seeking a WC have to go 30-10 to beat out the Red Sox for a WC. and the Sox go 10-30 or whatever their # of remaining games are.

Well this doesn't make sense. The Sox have a 5.5 game lead on BAL, who is the first to miss the PS. A bad series against the Yanks and a tough west coast trip could easily spin the Sox out of the PS mix. Not saying that's going to happen, but the collapse wouldn't have to be as massive as you portray by any means. They don't have a 20 game lead on the 3rd place team in the WC.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

3 v NYY
3 @ SFG
3 @ LAD
3 v BAL
3 v CHI
3 v DET
4 @ NYY
3 @ TB
3 v NYY
3 v BAL
3 v TOR
2 @ COL
3 @ BAL

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

[Thunder]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

3 v NYY
3 @ SFG
3 @ LAD
3 v BAL
3 v CHI
3 v DET
4 @ NYY
3 @ TB
3 v NYY
3 v BAL
3 v TOR
2 @ COL
3 @ BAL

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

Buchholz is going to be a big boost to this team's morale.The whole pitching staff will benefit from having him back.

As for the 10 remaining Yankee games, the Sox are 6-3 against the Yankees this year. They should go at least .500 in those 10 Yankees games. Having Buchholz will certainly help.

[BigPapi]

The Sox have a really, really tough schedule to finish up:

3 v NYY
3 @ SFG
3 @ LAD
3 v BAL
3 v CHI
3 v DET
4 @ NYY
3 @ TB
3 v NYY
3 v BAL
3 v TOR
2 @ COL
3 @ BAL

Bolded teams are at or below .500. So, of the Red Sox final 39 games, 11 are against losing teams, 28 are against better than .500 teams, all of which are contending teams in the PS hunt. They do have an extra series at home, which should help (18 away games, 21 home games), but if they're going to win this division or even make the PS, they're going to really have to earn it.

The biggest boost that the Sox could get would be a healthy Buchholz in 2 weeks.

Very true. If we are a playoff team, we should be able to beat playoff and contending playoff teams.

[Thunder]

Very true. If we are a playoff team, we should be able to beat playoff and contending playoff teams.

Teams like Baltimore, New York, and Tampa are teams we can handle. We are 6-3 vs the Yankees, 4-6 vs the Orioles (most of the losses have been close) and 10-6 vs the Rays. Combined that's 20-15 against 3 very good teams.

[Bellhorn04]

The simple truth is, nobody knows shit about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a fucking clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

[VA Sox Fan]

The simple truth is, nobody knows shit about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a fucking clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

Great analogy. The bolded part is so true.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The simple truth is, nobody knows shit about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a fucking clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

Dustin Pedroia was Keyser Soze THE WHOLE TIME!

[Thunder]

The simple truth is, nobody knows shit about what's gonna happen. We're watching a movie with many gut-wrenching twists and turns and nobody has a fucking clue how it ends. The hero might end up rich and in the sack with his gorgeous co-star, or he might get stabbed in the chest in the final reel. That's what makes it so entertaining and so scary.

Great point. I think it's fair to say that this is why we follow baseball. Everything is so unpredictable.


Also, the schedule left for the Rays:
3 vs TOR
3 @ BAL
3 vs NYY
1 @ KC
3 vs LAA
3 @ OAK
4 @ LAA
3 @ SEA
3 vs Sox
3 @ MIN
4 vs TEX
4 vs BAL
3 @ NYY
3 @ TOR

[Bellhorn04]

Dustin Pedroia was Keyser Soze THE WHOLE TIME!

Heh, heh...Keyser was one of the scariest movie characters ever.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Great point. I think it's fair to say that this is why we follow baseball. Everything is so unpredictable.


Also, the schedule left for the Rays:
3 vs TOR
3 @ BAL
3 vs NYY
1 @ KC
3 vs LAA
3 @ OAK
4 @ LAA
3 @ SEA
3 vs Sox
3 @ MIN
4 vs TEX
4 vs BAL
3 @ NYY
3 @ TOR

Rays have 23 away games, 20 home games. The Rays are a .500 team on the road, and a .639 team at home. If those percentages hold true, or relatively true, the Rays will finish the season at 93-69.

For the Red Sox to finish 94-68, they will have to win 22 of their final 39 games, which is a .564 W%, or a 91 win pace.

This is going to be a tight race.

[Thunder]

Rays have 23 away games, 20 home games. The Rays are a .500 team on the road, and a .639 team at home. If those percentages hold true, or relatively true, the Rays will finish the season at 93-69.

For the Red Sox to finish 94-65, they will have to win 22 of their final 39 games, which is a .564 W%, or a 91 win pace.

This is going to be a tight race.

94-65 is only 159 games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

94-65 is only 159 games.

Yeah I meant 94-68. Typo.

[Thunder]

Yeah I meant 94-68. Typo.

Ok. So you have the Sox winning the East by 1 game. Wow. That will be intense.

[Station 13]

Ok. So you have the Sox winning the East by 1 game. Wow. That will be intense.

Dont we hold the tie breaker? If tie, we take the division and that boot Tampa to a WC? Not sure if the rules change since adding a WC2.

[Thunder]

Dont we hold the tie breaker? If tie, we take the division and that boot Tampa to a WC? Not sure if the rules change since adding a WC2.

Yes we have the tie breaker. We've already won 10 games against them, so we are guaranteed to win the season series.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I may be mistaken, but I am fairly certain that season series no longer affects the tie breaker. It's now a situation where you have a head to head game, i.e. a game 163, to see who wins the division, regardless of head to head record.

[rjortiz]

I may be mistaken, but I am fairly certain that season series no longer affects the tie breaker. It's now a situation where you have a head to head game, i.e. a game 163, to see who wins the division, regardless of head to head record.

That's correct. They use the head-to-head records to determine home field advantage now.

[rjortiz]

I'll say the Red Sox finish two to three games ahead of the Rays. Rays/A's play for the Wild Card.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

I'm going to Boston and kicking your ass. Put some sense into you lol!

[Palodios]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

Did anyone else just lose all faith in humanity?

[rjortiz]

Funny, because SFF was the one telling us at the beginning of the season to believe that the Red Sox were a playoff team. Haha, where did that optimism go?

Missing the playoffs is pretty unlikely. BP gives us a 93.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 66% chance to win the division.

[Thunder]

Funny, because SFF was the one telling us at the beginning of the season to believe that the Red Sox were a playoff team. Haha, where did that optimism go?

Missing the playoffs is pretty unlikely. BP gives us a 93.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 66% chance to win the division.

Can't argue with those odds.

[rjortiz]

Can't argue with those odds.


Plus, missing the playoffs would require some dramatic surge from the Indians, Royals, or Orioles. Whatever you think of the Red Sox, it can't be lower than those teams.

[sk7326]

Odds are excellent. Just need to keep chopping wood, win series, avoid serious swoons. Blue Jays series was tough - bunch of coin flip games.

[SoxSport]

I would say the odds of them making the playoffs are 50/50. They have holes against LHP that have been ignored up to this point. Grandpa Pettite shut them down tonite. About every LH starter has been effective against them lately. They will see a steady diet of LHP the rest of the season. If they don't hit them, they will miss the playoffs.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

In England the Bookmakers who take bets have:

10/11(just over 50%) Redsox
6/5 Tampa Bay
11/1 Baltimore
18/1 Yankees
N-o Toronto

Just if you wanted to know.

Given our schedules these are generous odds on Tampa and Baltimore some could argue are value considering they have 9 V us

O well.

[rjortiz]

In England the Bookmakers who take bets have:

10/11(just over 50%) Redsox
6/5 Tampa Bay
11/1 Baltimore
18/1 Yankees
N-o Toronto

Just if you wanted to know.

Given our schedules these are generous odds on Tampa and Baltimore some could argue are value considering they have 9 V us

O well.

Baltimore's not catching anyone with that pitching staff.

[rjortiz]

I would say the odds of them making the playoffs are 50/50. They have holes against LHP that have been ignored up to this point. Grandpa Pettite shut them down tonite. About every LH starter has been effective against them lately. They will see a steady diet of LHP the rest of the season. If they don't hit them, they will miss the playoffs.

The Red Sox have a 4.5 game lead with 38 to play. The odds of them making the playoffs are substantially larger than 50/50.

[Emmz]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

Wow, does that really help?

It's like when you're a kid and you start cheering for the other team to do good just so that you jinx them.

[jad]

Well, a 1 game lead now. With a feeble line-up: Els not hitting; Napoli a K-machine; Holt and Snyder (who?); gomes (who gets the Youk award for being a self-proclaimed 'dirt-dog' and 'gamer' while hitting under .250); Drew (the usual). That line-up is threatening to look like the triple-A lineup we saw late last year. Not there, of course; just threatening.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox are hitting a rough patch at the wrong time. Their offense leads the charge and over the last few games, the O has fallen flat. If it wasn't for a bad error last night, you'd have been held to 1 run by a guy who couldn't shut down a little league lineup. Their O must pick up or they're done. The sox pitching isn't good enough to sustain winning

[Bellhorn04]

Mostly on gut feelings, and adjusted for long-term-Sox-fan mental and emotional damage, I'd put our chances of winning the division now at about 30%, and our chances of making the playoffs at about 70%.

[Palodios]

Here's Pal's stat of the day.

Salty's CERA -- 4.00.
Ross's CERA -- 3.00.

Salty's OPS versus lefties .590.
Ross' OPS versus lefties .728.

David Ross returns Monday. He's a guy who could help stabilize the pitching, and offset some of the problems we've seen against left handed pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

David Ross returns Monday. He's a guy who could help stabilize the pitching, and offset some of the problems we've seen against left handed pitching.

That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.

[Bellhorn04]

Assigning percentages to your chances is actually kind of silly when you think about it. It's just another way of shielding yourself from cold reality. Which is that it's only a binary proposition. It's like the old joke that a woman can't be a little pregnant. We either make it or we don't. As of today I vote yes, we'll make the playoffs. But I'll revisit after the West Coast trip.

[BigPapi]

That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.

Well, since butch has 3 rehab starts scheduled and who knows when those will be, he wont be back until 15 days after the first rehab start. I hope he has one scheduled this month.

[Station 13]

Well, since butch has 3 rehab starts scheduled and who knows when those will be, he wont be back until 15 days after the first rehab start. I hope he has one scheduled this month.

Well if he hope to get his 3 rehab starts in he better do it by next week. The minor season is almost done.

[BigPapi]

Well if he hope to get his 3 rehab starts in he better do it by next week. The minor season is almost done.

Thats right, I completely forgot about that. Doesnt it end in early september?

[BigPapi]

So, the paw sox season ends the second of septemeber. So, we should probably see him back around septemebr 7th, if not earlier

[Thunder]

Well, a 1 game lead now. With a feeble line-up: Els not hitting; Napoli a K-machine; Holt and Snyder (who?); gomes (who gets the Youk award for being a self-proclaimed 'dirt-dog' and 'gamer' while hitting under .250); Drew (the usual). That line-up is threatening to look like the triple-A lineup we saw late last year. Not there, of course; just threatening.

Calm down. This team is still in first place. That's good for something, right? The Rays just had a long losing streak, and now we're in a tumble. I refuse to worry or panic until this team is 2 or more games out of first.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

The sox are hitting a rough patch at the wrong time. Their offense leads the charge and over the last few games, the O has fallen flat. If it wasn't for a bad error last night, you'd have been held to 1 run by a guy who couldn't shut down a little league lineup. Their O must pick up or they're done. The sox pitching isn't good enough to sustain winning

Yes it is, we just have been dead on offense. That's what gets the team going, offense.

[jung]

They could have enough pitching if they pitch to their peak potential. But you could say that about almost any group of decent pitchers in this league. If they get to the post season with the starting pitching where it is right now and not knowing where Buch is going to be...NO, IMO, they don't have enough "good" pitching.

Who do you trust right now.....Buch? Haven't seen him pitch since June 8. Peavy? Two good starts, one turkey so far.....the 1st option at present. Lackey? Seems to be fading a bit down the stretch here.....Lester? No idea what you are going to get from game to game. Felix? Now also having some rocky starts with the added issue of not having much experience in high pressure games.....Dempster? Fading of the regular season rotation....never mind post season.

I am reasonably confident that Peavy gives you a good post season game one. After that....no idea!

[Behindenemylines]

There is a difference between losing and getting blown out. Last nights game hopefully was the low point of this losing streak. The Sox sucked in all areas of the game: Starting pitching, defense, base running and with the bat. They were never in last nights game and were blown out. Everyone is taking about the Rays and are ignoring the $pankees. They play the Sox 9 more times, and most of their other remaining games are against AL East teams. If they go on one of those Dodger streaks they could catch everyone because they play so many games against these teams. Not making the playoffs is one thing, but if the $panks blow by us and make it that will be tough to take. What Reynolds did in his first AB last night is a bad sign.

[rjortiz]

There is a difference between losing and getting blown out. Last nights game hopefully was the low point of this losing streak. The Sox sucked in all areas of the game: Starting pitching, defense, base running and with the bat. They were never in last nights game and were blown out. Everyone is taking about the Rays and are ignoring the $pankees. They play the Sox 9 more times, and most of their other remaining games are against AL East teams. If they go on one of those Dodger streaks they could catch everyone because they play so many games against these teams. Not making the playoffs is one thing, but if the $panks blow by us and make it that will be tough to take. What Reynolds did in his first AB last night is a bad sign.

The only difference is that the Dodgers are good, and the Yankees aren't. The Yankees are too far back.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not ignoring the Spankees at all. As I've said a number of times, the fuckers are harder to get rid of than cockroaches. Soriano and Reynolds - Jesus Christ, how do they pull off this shit. The ironic thing about Soriano is that Cashman promptly came out and denounced the move, saying he was against it. Fucking Spanks.

[rjortiz]

I'm not ignoring the Spankees at all. As I've said a number of times, the fuckers are harder to get rid of than cockroaches. Soriano and Reynolds - Jesus Christ, how do they pull off this shit. The ironic thing about Soriano is that Cashman promptly came out and denounced the move, saying he was against it. Fucking Spanks.

Because Reynolds sucks, and Soriano is a ridiculously overpaid role player.

[a700hitter]

Because Reynolds sucks, and Soriano is a ridiculously overpaid role player.Both Soriano and Reynolds will provide more punch than Gomes or Middlebrooks down the stretch and the Cubs are paying $17.7 million of the $25 million owed to Soriano. That is looking like a pretty sweet deal by Cashman.

[rjortiz]

Both Soriano and Reynolds will provide more punch than Gomes or Middlebrooks down the stretch and the Cubs are paying $17.7 million of the $25 million owed to Soriano. That is looking like a pretty sweet deal by Cashman.

Reynolds had an OPS of .678 with the Indians, plus he's the worst defensive 3B in the game. Even if he somehow managed a .800 OPS, he'd give most of it back in the field. Also, I think they are counting on him to be the platoon partner with Overbay at 1B.

Soriano is definitely an upgrade over Vernon Wells, but I think we both would be too. They will pay him and Wells $10 million to form a underwhelming LF duo in 2014. He's been good since coming to the Yankees, but I don't think there's any chance he'll sustain it with his 3/22 BB:K ratio, and his season long .299 OBP.

They might be useful role players for the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't useful role players away from contending. They also have to deal with the luxury tax next year. I don't think flushing $10 million away on role players is the best way to get under that threshold.

[a700hitter]

Reynolds had an OPS of .678 with the Indians, plus he's the worst defensive 3B in the game. Even if he somehow managed a .800 OPS, he'd give most of it back in the field. Also, I think they are counting on him to be the platoon partner with Overbay at 1B.

Soriano is definitely an upgrade over Vernon Wells, but I think we both would be too. They will pay him and Wells $10 million to form a underwhelming LF duo in 2014. He's been good since coming to the Yankees, but I don't think there's any chance he'll sustain it with his 3/22 BB:K ratio, and his season long .299 OBP.

They might be useful role players for the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't useful role players away from contending. They also have to deal with the luxury tax next year. I don't think flushing $10 million away on role players is the best way to get under that threshold.I wouldn't be so sure. The Yankee offense was in a power outage before getting Soriano and Reynolds. Their HR total has spiked since the trading deadline.

[Orange Juiced]

Anyone who buries the Yankees at this point is borderline insane. I didn't like their chances 10 days ago, but they've started to get on a roll. They're going to be a factor, make no mistake about it people.

[SoxSport]

I wouldn't count anybody out in the AL East right now. Toronto maybe excepted. The Red Sox won't make the playoffs the way they are playing right now, so they will have to snap out of it and find a way to hit LHP. So far, no answers.
The braintrust has made no effort to improve their RHd hitting, except maybe Middlebrooks, who hasn't so far. Cashman, on the other hand, is coming up roses with Soriano and Reynolds--so far.

[rjortiz]

I wouldn't call going 12-14 since the break, and 7-7 in August a rejuvenation.

[Thunder]

I wouldn't call going 12-14 since the break, and 7-7 in August a rejuvenation.

It isn't, the goal is just to finish in 1st, and that's the case right now.

[sk7326]

Red Sox are still in pretty excellent shape - not much has really changed. The Sox have not been amazing since the break:

Rays 1-3
Orioles 2-1
Yankees 2-2
Mariners 3-0
DBacks 2-1
Astros 2-1
Royals 1-3
Jays 1-2

14-13 since the break against one of the meatiest portions of their schedule this season. The Jays were the below .500 team they had a losing record against, and those were 3 coin flip games which don't really say anything one way or the other (aside from dem's the breaks).

In a virtual tie with Detroit for the best record in the AL and a 1.5 games out from the best record in the league period. Detroit is a better team, but I thought that before the break too.

The Sox are 5 games up on a playoff spot with 6 weeks to go. Barring a catastrophic set of injuries like 2011 - they are very high probability to make the tournament.

[Thunder]

Wasn't injuries in 2011. It was beer.

[Bellhorn04]

Barring a catastrophic set of injuries like 2011 - they are very high probability to make the tournament.

Can't blame the 2011 collapse on injuries. It was a pitching meltdown of inexplicable proportions.

[sk7326]

Can't blame the 2011 collapse on injuries. It was a pitching meltdown of inexplicable proportions.

The pitching was the other side of it, but a lot of that was a ton of guys hurt badly ... in particular the team's best hitter's body falling to pieces

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/gallery/2011/redsox_2011_injury_report/

That, and the Rays going on a wildly unlikely hot streak. If the Red Sox go .500 the rest of the way, that is 91-71, which is hard to picture missing the playoffs. That being said, the schedule is going to be tough the rest of the way - in particular this week's West Coast Swing, being able to burp out a .500 record would be very helpful.

[Bellhorn04]

The pitching was the other side of it, but a lot of that was a ton of guys hurt badly ... in particular the team's best hitter's body falling to pieces


I'd like to buy it but I can't. In September/11 they averaged 5.4 runs per game. The problem was that they gave up a mind-blowing 6.4 runs per game.

[sk7326]

I'd like to buy it but I can't. In September/11 they averaged 5.4 runs per game. The problem was that they gave up a mind-blowing 6.4 runs per game.

Oh I lived it - but the pitchers were broken down too, the entire rotation had been fighting aches pains, on the DL and whatnot. Just a collision of a bunch of unlikely things - I've always thought the wild overreaction to an amazingly unlikely event was the management's biggest failure since they owned the team.

After all in 2011, Lackey's arm as being held together by play-doh, Matsuzaka was gone, Buchholz was gone, Lester had a DL stint, Beckett was working through a bum ankle. Erik Bedard was a guy and they had to start Tim Wakefield and Kyle Weiland's corpses. By comparison, this year's rotation has been the picture of health.

[Behindenemylines]

The next two weeks will go along way in determining that for the Sox. West coast after the ESPN Sunday night game.

[sk7326]

Wasn't injuries in 2011. It was beer.

... don't get caught up in an angle that was used to sell newspapers. The pros who led a title winning juggernaut did not grow into lesser people - broken down and/or lesser players perhaps - that doesn't stand any level of credibility.

[Thunder]

The next two weeks will go along way in determining that for the Sox. West coast after the ESPN Sunday night game.

Leaving Monday morning for the west coast won't help.

[sk7326]

trip will be interesting - continue a trend of running into a lot of pitcher's parks lately. The alarming sign for the offense were the issues in Toronto, which is a bit of a launching pad. This is another trip I could see Boegarts being called up for in theory - NL parks means you probably want to carry fewer pitchers than normal if you can.

[Thunder]

... don't get caught up in an angle that was used to sell newspapers. The pros who led a title winning juggernaut did not grow into lesser people - broken down and/or lesser players perhaps - that doesn't stand any level of credibility.

It was part injuries and part beer. Beckett, Lackey, and Tito admitted that it happened.

[rjortiz]

It was part injuries and part beer. Beckett, Lackey, and Tito admitted that it happened.

Yeah, it happened, but can you prove that it had an impact on their performance? From what we know, Red Sox starters drank beer during their off days. Who gives a shit? I don't see how that has any impact on their performance.

[Bellhorn04]

It was part injuries and part beer. Beckett, Lackey, and Tito admitted that it happened.

Shit man, players drink beer like it's water regardless of rules. Just a question of whether they can wait till the game's over.

[sk7326]

Shit man, players drink beer like it's water regardless of rules. Just a question of whether they can wait till the game's over.

I think diagnoses like pitching meltdown, bodies breaking down, the Rays just getting impossible hot ... all those are fair reasons that stem from what actually happened. The "beer" story was more of trying to shoehorn a narrative so Shaughnessy had something to write about.

[Bellhorn04]

I think diagnoses like pitching meltdown, bodies breaking down, the Rays just getting impossible hot ... all those are fair reasons that stem from what actually happened. The "beer" story was more of trying to shoehorn a narrative so Shaughnessy had something to write about.

Nobody will ever be able to properly explain what happened. Obviously a combination of things and a giant snowball of negativity thundering downhill.

The Rays getting so hot unfortunately had a lot to do with winning just about every goddam time they played us.

[Orange Juiced]

Nobody will ever be able to properly explain what happened. Obviously a combination of things and a giant snowball of negativity thundering downhill.

The Rays getting so hot unfortunately had a lot to do with winning just about every goddam time they played us.

The Rays played very well in September, but they weren't really "so" hot. They went 17-10 (.630) in September. It's just that the Red Sox went 7-20 (.259) and the Rays picked up 10 games in a month.

But yes, all those head-to-head wins were huge for them. Turns out all the Sox needed was *one* more head-to-head win over Tampa.......

EDIT: If the Red Sox merely had a horrible month (say, 11-18, .407) instead of an historically bad month (7-20, .259), they win the division comfortably. All they had to be in September was horrible. But noooooooo...they had to have one of the worst months in MLB history. Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

[rjortiz]

Shaughnessy broke it? Yeah, then it definitely wasn't the beer.

[sk7326]

The Rays played very well in September, but they weren't really "so" hot. They went 17-10 (.630) in September. It's just that the Red Sox went 7-20 (.259) and the Rays picked up 10 games in a month.

But yes, all those head-to-head wins were huge for them. Turns out all the Sox needed was *one* more head-to-head win over Tampa.......

Well 17-8 depending on the end point, and won their last 5 ... the 6 wins in 7 head to head was a very unlikely sort of thing which is fairly unique in terms of circumstances for playoff impact.

This year, Sox have 6 head to heads left against Baltimore and 7 against New York. Sweeps there will obvious make things complicated (and the Yankees need more luck than that). Kansas City and Cleveland might just not have enough opportunity to be the team to eliminate us. The next 9 games are particularly educational with the West Coast trip and then 3 with Baltimore.

[Thunder]

Shit man, players drink beer like it's water regardless of rules. Just a question of whether they can wait till the game's over.

I wouldn't have known that. I would think that they would work their asses off trying to stay in playing shape.

[jung]

I wouldn't have known that. I would think that they would work their asses off trying to stay in playing shape.

MLB players are far more in control of their own destinies with little involvement from the organization unlike the NFL for example. Team Conditioning Coaches in MLB are glorified towel holders again unlike the NFL. Some players are self motivated to stay in shape and others are not, regardless of the consequences. Look at how Felix has showed up for ST, twice now.

[Thunder]

MLB players are far more in control of their own destinies with little involvement from the organization unlike the NFL for example. Team Conditioning Coaches in MLB are glorified towel holders again unlike the NFL. Some players are self motivated to stay in shape and others are not, regardless of the consequences. Look at how Felix has showed up for ST, twice now.

I guess I really hadn't thought about it much. When I'm a major leaguer, I will be one of the more motivated ones.

Don't go crushing my dreams. I have an honest to god shot at playing pro ball. If my man AJ Pollock can do it out of my small high school, than I can too.

[sk7326]

I guess I really hadn't thought about it much. When I'm a major leaguer, I will be one of the more motivated ones.

Don't go crushing my dreams. I have an honest to god shot at playing pro ball. If my man AJ Pollock can do it out of my small high school, than I can too.

There is a lot of motivation and talent to make the league. Only 750 jobs available - so to get one is a big deal. That they drank on off days did not bother me per se - it was not like it was a new habit. It is not a great Hallmark card, but you have to assume it was standard operating procedure throughout the league (by most accounts, it is). After all, these are grownups. That the beer story existed is not debated, that it was causal to their 7-20 September (and not causal, say, to their 81-42 middle four and a half months) seems rather silly to me. This is a formula that won titles and made playoff regulars. The difference was a lack of healthy, effective pitching - and a horrible 7 games against TB when they needed it the least.

[SCM33]

Redsox are going to be fine.

I predicted 90+ wins, and I still think they will reach that number. Its just the ebb and flow of the season.

Relax, this team is not built with the same overpaid, under performing, heartless, selfish assholes that the 2011 team consisted of. The simple fact that the poison Josh Beckett is not in the clubhouse makes this team a stronger group. This team has more of a 2003/2004 "cowboy up" vibe then a 2011 vibe.

[Behindenemylines]

Buchholtz threw another positive bullpen yesterday. Getting a healthy Buchholtz back for the stretch run would be huge for the Sox. If you make 92 wins the magic number to make the playoffs then this is what teams have to do to reach that: (Detroit and Texas win their divisions)

Sox 19-18 .514
TB 23-18 .561
Balt 26-14 .650
$panks 29-11 .725
Cleve 26-13 .667
KC 28-12 .700
Oak 23-17 .575

Sox play teams within their division a lot so going .500 against them won't hurt them as much as the teams below them. If the Sox can't reach 92 wins then they weren't just good enough.

[SoxSport]

None of that clubhouse stuff has anything to do with anything. The media doesn't know anything about the clubhouse. I remember Schilling talking about this a while back. It was never about chicken and beer, in my view.

Chemistry isn't about the clubhouse--it's about players knowing their roles on the field and having talents which mesh together--complement each other. It's up to the management to get those players and tell them their roles. That's what made Auerbach of the Celtics great. He knew how to do that.

It's a mystery why the Red Sox folded that September a couple of years ago. Though their fundamentals and their managing were sloppy at the time. Letting guys steal bases, for example. There was hubris. Lack of discipline. And their starting pitching fell apart--which was probably the major reason. Last year, it was obvious--they sold off three of their stars, and got nobody of immediate use in return. Then Ortiz got hurt. Plus their management was not all swimming in the same direction. That ended it.

[jung]

I do think Chemistry is mostly about player talents on the field being well meshed and players knowing their roles. 2011 really was about the pitching. Without pitching you go nowhere in MLB. The only times the Sox ever truly succeeded is when......they had pitching.

As for 2012, I do not think V ever did find a way to communicate what he wanted that squad of players to do.....how he wanted them to blend as a team......V has got to be the worst communicator as a manager in the modern era. His 2012 probably eclipsing any wacko communicating that Stengel might have done for his era.

Ballplayers are incredibly protective of their meal tickets....their careers. V managed to make that team feel like he was a lying sack of shit because he was/is a lying sack of shit. Hence they all became very protective of self because at the end of the day, that is what they had to protect before anything else...themselves. V could have done a ton of things wrong that would have been acceptable and might have given him a chance. However he just could not help himself. He insisted on that snide, wise assed, sarcastic bullshit way of discussing everything with everybody.

What we all did not see nor understand until later is that he talked to his ballplayers the same way he talked to us.....staggering beyond belief but none the less true. Since it is all wise cracking, sarcastic bullshit to V and he leaves his constituents whether players or fans or anybody else with no road map to where he is going he felt free to say one thing today and something entirely opposite the next. In addition he felt totally justified in leaving things to the last minute probably because his monumental ego does not allow for change. If he never commits to anything today, he does not have to change that commitment tomorrow. As I have said before, that our lunkhead owners were able to come out of an interview with that idiot convinced that he was their manager is something I can find no way to rationalize.

[sk7326]

V did not communicate to is coaches. That his players hated him did not prevent his success - there are a lot of coaches who had their players hate them and were successful - but that he did not show any interest in managing a coaching staff. Their poor record was not necessarily a manifestation of V per se - the injuries crushed them last year and after the trade they were fielding a AAA team - but he did not help.

The chemistry issue in 2011 was hard to blame on anything but a confluence of baseball factors (pitcher injuries and an associated meltdown) - after all the team under the same factors went 81-42. The collapse was doubly shocking due to how dominant they were leading up to it. The managing may have not been great compared to other years Tito had (interestingly 2010 was a magnificent managing job), that is hard to say for me - but I am not sure how he could put lipstick on Kyle Weiland or the fossilized remains of Wake.

[jung]

I agree SK....to the extent that V did not communicate anything effectively to anybody on that team. That he did not communicate well through his coaches is another manifestation of the same problem. However as we later found out, what communication he did have with his players...all be it cryptic (You had to have the V decoder ring to have any idea what the hell he was saying) was often sarcastic, full of double meaning and liable to be contradicted the next day either face to face, through a coach or in the media. How do you win baseball games when that is where you are as a team.

It is not a matter of "hate". I never used the word hate in my post. It always amazes me how often people jump to an emotion like hate. It almost trivializes it. That team did not trust V and they did not respect him. Playing for somebody you "hate" is nothing compared to playing for somebody you do not trust and do not respect. You can't sleep nights if you can't trust your boss....can't be done.

Might they have done just as badly with anybody else at the helm...possibly. However they could not have done worse. Remember everybody and his brother knew that V was ownership's choice. For all the players knew, V could really have enough power to fuck them sideways if he wanted to do so. Did V ever make it plain to anybody that winning was more important than maintaining his sarcastic, fucked up, "you figure out what the hell I am saying attitude? Absolutely not. If anything he went out of his way to make sure we all knew that nothing was more important to V than maintaining his facade as fucked up as it was. I don't think that team had a snowballs chance in hell no matter who they put on the field.

The only silver lining appears to be that ownership realized it had fucked up so badly that it gave BC the freedom to make HIS choice next time around. I don't think ownership would have accepted just anybody for Manager but I do think they would have accepted anybody that BC decided to bring in considering that there was no way in hell that BC could have done worse than they did.

The 2012 season effectively ended with the trade although I would make the case that it effectively ended in ST.

[Thunder]

There was just no sense of togetherness on the team last year, which didn't make the team very motivated. V didn't help at all, so yes the season was basically over in ST.

[rjortiz]

There was just no sense of togetherness on the team last year, which didn't make the team very motivated. V didn't help at all, so yes the season was basically over in ST.

I think Aaron Cook taking 18 turns in the rotation had more to do with it.

[sk7326]

What Farrell has done I think is just restore a sense of professionalism in the coaching staff. The communication is cleaner. Perhaps even the fried chicken is back - but moreover, an environment is there for the players to do their jobs. Were there other, less expensive choices who might have worked too? Without a doubt - like a Lovullo or a Gene Lamont - but clearly Cherington wanted Farrell and Farrell wanted Boston. The team and the day to day is just more "boring" this year - just a bunch of guys free to do their work, and a coaching staff that understands the entire Sox mission, from development to the nerdball.

[sk7326]

There was just no sense of togetherness on the team last year, which didn't make the team very motivated. V didn't help at all, so yes the season was basically over in ST.

Actually, last year's team was spectacularly unlucky - for a lot of the season carrying a positive run differential without a winning record. The pitching was bad - like wheeling out Aaron Cook's corpse bad. But the team was decimated by injuries and performance drops that nobody say coming.

Crawford was so horrible in 2011 that he would have had to be better in 2012 and 2013 by just being a living breathing baseball player. But the injuries held him up still. If he could have recovered to just "average" the Sox could have lived with that.

But what REALLY f'ed the Sox outside of the pitching - where their plans for world dominance failed - was that Adrian Gonzalez basically turned from a GUY! into a guy. The guy has persisted in LA. This doesn't mean he is a bad player - but he is not the transformational slugger for a decade the Sox (and the industry) thought the Red Sox were landing. 25 million for a 30 year old future Albert Pujols makes sense ... 25 million a year for a 30 year old future Adam LaRoche does not. You take that one one hand, and then take Kevin Youkilis, one of the leagues top dozen hitters entering that time frame, having injuries basically destroy his ability to be a serious everyday player. The things which seemed like safe bets ALL came up snake eyes - one hates just chalking it up to luck, but something very much like that happened.